Denver/Portland write up

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  • bubblebuttluv
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 11-13-12
    • 5179

    #1
    Denver/Portland write up
    12/20/12:

    Denver Nuggets vs Portland Trailblazers:

    Denver Nuggets:
    1.) Avg points last 4 games: 109.5
    2.) Avg points last 4 road games: 108.5
    3.) Avg points last 4 home games: 106.5
    4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: the two have not played each other this year
    5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 46.75
    6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 12.25
    7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 72.925
    8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 16
    9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 101.25

    Portland Trailblazers:
    1.) Avg points last 4 games: 91.25
    2.) Avg points last 4 road games: 99.75
    3.) Avg points last 4 home games: 96
    4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: the two have not played each other this year
    5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 42.75
    6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 11.25
    7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 85.925
    8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 12.25
    9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 89.25

    Denver wins 5 out of 9 categories (5 out of 8 if you don’t count category 4). I wish Denver had a little better free throw % and I don’t like their points allowed, but they have been in some high scoring games. Also while recently Portland beat a stout Spurs squad, they lost to the Kings and only beat those bunch of bums known as the Hornets by 1 point. And with not more handidly beating the Raptors, I am not going to give Portland more than 1 point for home team advantage. But, Portland has had a long rest…maybe too long. Let’s give Portland another 0.5 points. So for Denver I have them with a number of 7.75 (109.5 – 101.25). Portland’s number is 2 (91.25 – 89.25). My raw spread leaves Denver as a 5.75. The pad is 1.5 (the 1 point for home field advantage and 0.5 points for long rest). So my spread is 4.25. 5Dimes has the Denver as a 6 point favorite, so they favor Denver more than I do. So the play here would be Portland plus the points. But, this does not seem like the best game on the board today in my opinion, so I would personally avoid it. As always check rosters before making bets.
  • vasilli07
    SBR MVP
    • 05-08-11
    • 3955

    #2
    Nice writeup. Good luck.
    Comment
    • Yinz Hooligan
      SBR Sharp
      • 12-04-12
      • 318

      #3
      nice write up, i may take a shot if the line goes to 6.5 by game time, my local has 6 right now..
      Comment
      • aNGiS
        SBR Rookie
        • 10-11-12
        • 13

        #4
        Nice Write UP !!
        Comment
        • Hench
          SBR Sharp
          • 12-14-12
          • 304

          #5
          Line is 6 here as well. Looks tempting even with Aldridge out.
          Comment
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