How do you cap basketball?

[BON VIVANT]

Besides being a long-time fan, seeing player development and knowing match-ups off the top of the your head, which I don't, how do you do it?

I use statistical analysis and line movement with bases but so far I cannot figure a way to use stats in b-ball and line movement alone is not enough to gain an "edge".

Btw, lurking on SBR for picks doesn't count either...lol

[BON VIVANT]

bump bump

[Dom177]

I don't even watch the games I bet. Couldn't even tell you more than 2 people on each team. I look at recent stats, injuries, and overall trends. Basketball is boring except for the last quarter usually unless its a big game or rivalry game.

[Goat Milk]

you pretty much just named all the tools involved in capping games

it's all about matchups
situations

you can use stats and line movement if you want but if you don't know any of the players then you're best off using 1 flat unit for everything. stats can be misleading because teams adjust to other teams and depending on the roster a team that is dead last in offensive rebounds could have a good day on getting o rebounds if the matchup suits them.

[BON VIVANT]

you pretty much just named all the tools involved in capping games

it's all about matchups
situations

you can use stats and line movement if you want but if you don't know any of the players then you're best off using 1 flat unit for everything. stats can be misleading because teams adjust to other teams and depending on the roster a team that is dead last in offensive rebounds could have a good day on getting o rebounds if the matchup suits them.

The only sport I've capped where stats hold up "most of the time" is baseball. I avoid basketball like the plague now because I just don't know the match-ups.

[freddues]

"Put your faith in Allah, but, tie your camel to a tree first."

[combination lock]

Like goat said it has a lot to do with situations.

[suicidekings]

Scheduling: Catching teams on a 4 games in 5 days (or 5 in 7), cross-country road trips, and lookaheads to games against rivals.
Matchups: Presence in the paint, relative strength in 3 point shooting offense/defense.

Stats are good for identifying teams that start fast or are better 2H teams, but capping full games in NBA is more about understanding a particular team's identity and how they're going to go about trying to win the game.

[Spoon19xx]

Its all about ppg

[bjb7223]

ask Mr. Stern for a copy of the script for tonight