NBA lines have been VERY soft this year

BetaB · 12-10-12, 09:21 AM

No way C,Bulls and LAL did not do well ATS.

blanco · 12-10-12, 09:47 AM

If you're betting the bulls or lakers consistently at this point in the season you deserve to lose. It's been apparent from the start neither are close to the same team they've been in the past. I'm talking about teams with winning records. The teams with winning records have stunning ATS records as well.

My point is, the correlation between SU W/L % and ATS W/L % is way too high. It's not like we couldn't have predicted the thunder or spurs would start the season with the records they have. But they are covering nearly at the rate they're winning.

Similarly, if you just blindly faded the 10-12 worst teams in the league night in and night out, you'd be printing money too.

CHAZ · 12-10-12, 11:20 AM

Vegas knows what they are doing and will adjust. They will get it all sorted out. They always do

face · 12-10-12, 11:22 AM

spurs, thunder, and knicks killing ATS.

suns the worst at 7-15

blanco · 12-10-12, 11:29 AM

Spurs 2011-2012 ATS: 40-20-4
Spurs 2011-2012 O/U: 39 over, 26 under

Spurs 2012-2013 ATS: 14-6-1
Spurs 2012-2013 O/U: 13 over, 8 under

I'll be patiently waiting while I blindly bet them spread and over every game until I notice them starting to adjust properly

blanco · 12-10-12, 11:30 AM

"

blanco · 12-10-12, 11:34 AM

NBA Statistics - 2011-2012

Regular Season | covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/statistics/2011-2012/ats_playoffs.html

NBA ATS Records

	Team	ATS	W/L	O/U	For	Agst.	Marg.
1	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404302.html	42-20-4	50-16	39-26	103.7	96.5	7.2
2	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404198.html	38-27-1	50-16	31-34	96.3	88.2	8.2
3	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404330.html	37-28-1	23-43	26-38	90.7	94.0	-3.3
4	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404085.html	36-28-2	40-26	33-32	96.6	93.2	3.4
5	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404119.html	36-29-1	23-43	30-35	97.8	101.2	-3.4
6	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404065.html	36-30-0	38-28	32-33	104.1	101.2	2.9
7	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404288.html	36-30-0	36-30	27-39	97.8	94.7	3.2
8	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404316.html	35-31-0	47-19	31-35	103.1	96.9	6.1
9	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404101.html	35-31-0	21-45	30-35	89.6	93.4	-3.8
10	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404169.html	34-30-2	39-27	28-35	91.8	89.3	2.5
11	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404031.html	34-31-1	36-30	32-32	99.7	99.0	0.6
12	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404029.html	34-32-0	33-33	26-40	98.4	98.6	-0.2
13	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404013.html	34-32-0	37-29	33-31	94.2	93.4	0.8
14	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404083.html	33-32-1	35-31	30-36	93.6	89.4	4.2
15	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404135.html	33-33-0	40-26	33-32	97.5	95.0	2.6
16	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404153.html	32-33-1	25-41	38-28	90.9	95.7	-4.8
17	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team403993.html	32-33-1	28-38	35-31	97.2	97.8	-0.6
18	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404047.html	32-34-0	36-30	33-33	95.8	94.8	1.0
19	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404171.html	32-34-0	46-20	25-39	98.5	92.5	6.0
20	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404137.html	32-34-0	34-32	29-36	98.1	97.9	0.2
21	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404155.html	32-34-0	42-24	34-30	97.7	94.4	3.3
22	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team403995.html	31-35-0	26-40	30-34	97.9	100.1	-2.2
23	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404213.html	31-35-0	21-45	31-35	93.0	100.2	-7.2
24	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404067.html	29-36-1	20-46	28-38	93.6	98.4	-4.8
25	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team403975.html	29-37-0	22-44	34-30	98.8	104.4	-5.7
26	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404049.html	29-37-0	41-25	26-40	95.0	93.0	2.0
27	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404011.html	29-37-0	31-35	39-26	99.0	98.7	0.3
28	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team403977.html	28-38-0	41-25	37-28	97.3	95.9	1.4
29	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404117.html	28-38-0	22-44	33-32	93.1	99.1	-6.0
30	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team664421.html	23-43-0	7-59	29-35	87.0	100.9	-13.9

blanco · 12-10-12, 11:38 AM

Last year there were only 3 teams that had losing records and were >50% ATS. Honestly, why not just bet against the worst teams every night all season? You can even exclude the bad teams that cover more frequently as it will become apparent who they are quickly. I feel like you'd have to start this in the beginning of the season though and have an idea of who's going to suck off the bat, because from here on out I expect vegas to try to get these ATS records to converge as close to 50% as possible

ParlayBricker · 12-10-12, 11:47 AM

thanks for posting that blanco, didnt know there was 1 spot where you could find them all grouped, save me alot of time in the future

cheers

ChiLLx · 12-10-12, 05:50 PM

What are they supposed to do with the Spurs make the spread -25?

I mean the other night they scored 130+ points

blanco · 12-10-12, 05:53 PM

Originally posted by ChiLLx

What are they supposed to do with the Spurs make the spread -25?

I mean the other night they scored 130+ points

Sounds more logical than letting the public crush you night in and night out. every spurs game should be DD with a few exceptions.

pip2 · 12-10-12, 06:45 PM

I have been wondering about combining these figures. If team A is 6 - 2 against the spread at home, and team B is 2 - 6 against the spread away, and team B goes to play in team A's arena, do you have the perfect storm, or are you still dealing with the same 6 - 2 (or whatever) chances?

pip2 · 12-12-12, 09:50 AM

A little bit of an imperfect example tonight: MEM, which is 5 - 2 against the spread in away games, is playing in PHX, which is 2 - 8 against the spread in home games. If the linesmakers come out with a spread that doesn't look like they tacked on some extra points against MEM, wouldn't a bet on MEM be a good idea?