Bobcats +4.5

blanco · 12-09-12, 11:49 PM

Hurry boys, get it before it's 4 everywhere. Pretty close already. Don't think it will matter but this spread could keep getting smaller

blanco · 12-10-12, 12:24 AM

Coming off embarrassing home loss to spurs. I've watched them play a lot at home this year and they are a young talented team with a lot of heart. They will rebound hard and give it their all for 48 minutes. Bunch of talent fresh out of college that don't subscribe to the take nights off theory yet. Tough at home. Warriors have 3rd game in 4 nights all the way across the country from home and they beat the nets game 1 and then the wizards by 4 in the first 2. Let down spot for them to be content with this road trip and give it to the home team that wants it more.

Early public money is over 2:1 on golden state and it already ticked to 4 headed to 3.5 it looks like. Vegas is being greedy, not satisfied with 65%

vasilli07 · 12-10-12, 12:29 AM

They looked like they have lost all their confidence.

blanco · 12-10-12, 12:31 AM

They were playing the spurs. They will rebound strong

vasilli07 · 12-10-12, 12:34 AM

They have 7 chances to do it yet all end up with losses. Even with a 18 points lead with 5 mins left, they may still lose the game.

blanco · 12-10-12, 12:42 AM

It's going to be an unpopular play but I'm fine with that.

Look at the rest of december for them. If they don't get this W they may go winless for the month. They need this.

VS LAC
VS ATL
VS ORL
@LAL
@PHX
@GSW
@DEN
VS MIA
@ BKN
vs NOH
@ CHI

With the public all over GS, I like my chances.

MrVJP · 12-10-12, 01:08 AM

Steph Curry is going home and Dell Curry is the color analyst for the Cats. He'll want to play well and he has been on fire lately. David Lee matches up well vs the bigs of Charlotte. Bobcats are terrible on perimeter D/3pt D and the Warriors have sharpshooters all over the show. Only letdown I see here is that some of the team may be eying Miami on Wednesday. If Curry stays hot this won't even be close. I'm on the Warriors -4, GL

nocode1 · 12-10-12, 01:10 AM

Not saying bobcats won't cover here, but your saying they should beat gsw straight but can't beat Orlando, Phx or noh?

Golden state are easily better than all of those teams I think.
Tread carefully just cause its a public play don't mean it's wrong.

I actually like the over 203

BigDofBA · 12-10-12, 01:14 AM

I can't back a team that had 24 points with like 8 minutes left in the third quarter against OK.

hawley · 12-10-12, 01:37 AM

I see the Bobcats regressing to their true quality at the moment.

They started the season well, play with plenty of passion and have come a long way but their talent base is very poor.

The Warriors are not at a point where I would regularly back them on the road but they are playing impressive ball at the moment.

as99 · 12-10-12, 04:02 AM

Could win but if you watched the GSW recently you would not bet against them.

shimeon40 · 12-10-12, 04:41 AM

bobcats dog of the day...

ShogunRua · 12-10-12, 05:08 AM

not a good spot for Golden State here, but they have been playing really well lately. really well and just as important, really hard.

Pass.

shimeon40 · 12-10-12, 05:51 AM

As blanco said..they'll give it a go..whether they are good enough we'll see but i think they are a huge chance ML little lone points.

shimeon40 · 12-10-12, 06:04 AM

bobcats are a huge chance of an upset..ben gordon..sessions running around..they are a chance and a big one at that.

blanco · 12-10-12, 06:09 AM

My gut is still saying bobcats cover but I woke up feeling not as good about this as I did last night. Will probably play for 1u if it gets to 5 or 5.5.

shimeon40 · 12-10-12, 06:12 AM

My gut says bobcats and i'm NOT changing my mind...hero or zero on this.

lonegambler · 12-10-12, 06:12 AM

y not bobcats are worth a ml shot im in

blanco · 12-10-12, 06:16 AM

If you are going to play bobcats i recommend taking the points. The ML won't be that lucrative and they've shown they can't close games.

as99 · 12-10-12, 06:27 AM

Took a chance with GSW -4.

blanco · 12-10-12, 06:37 AM

Another thing I do like is that they bounced back after their embarrassing performance against OKC and only lost in atlanta by 3. Golden state plays miami wednesday so there's also the look ahead angle. Furthermore, it seems like GS has had a hard time staying focused. This is their first 3 game win streak of the year.

vasilli07 · 12-10-12, 06:55 AM

Why will they look ahead? I mean this is a more winnable game than the Heat, they should be putting more effort to try and win this.

shimeon40 · 12-10-12, 06:56 AM

Blanco is it officially back to a 3 unit play?

shimeon40 · 12-10-12, 06:57 AM

If you just woke up blanco and back to a unit play..try having some breakfast then a shower...could be 3 units again after that.

blanco · 12-10-12, 06:59 AM

Originally posted by vasilli07

Why will they look ahead? I mean this is a more winnable game than the Heat, they should be putting more effort to try and win this.

yeah, unfortunately this is true too. And I wish they hadn't had the close win over the wizards right before this. mehhhhh

blanco · 12-10-12, 07:00 AM

Originally posted by shimeon40

If you just woke up blanco and back to a unit play..try having some breakfast then a shower...could be 3 units again after that.

haha we have all day for the line to improve. and if it doesn't, that's also a pretty good sign

as99 · 12-10-12, 07:01 AM

Lets look at it another way, Bobcats have lost 7 straight games with the last win coming against a winless Wizards team meanwhile GSW 6-1 with wins over some pretty good teams.

shimeon40 · 12-10-12, 07:05 AM

didn't wizards just recently beat miami..NBA amazing happens...trick is knowing when and where the amazing happens..

blanco · 12-10-12, 07:31 AM

Heritage, the greek, and pinnacle are at 4 and juicing golden state more. every other book is at 4.5. calling no coin...lock?

shimeon40 · 12-10-12, 07:37 AM

Translate that blanco..does juicing mean getting more money??...whats your take on it.? are they wanting people to back GWS

blanco · 12-10-12, 07:45 AM

I'm not a parlay guy, but another interesting option I just thought about would be betting smaller but parlaying bobcats +4.5 and the under to minimize the risk of this bet but maximize the payout. The Bobcats haven't kept a game within 5 points all season unless it went under 203 with the exception of a win against the wizards (speaks for itself). On the other side, the warriors have only lost 2 games this year scoring 100+ and they were vs. the thunder and nuggets, 2 teams that are going to have games with both teams in the 100s very frequently. I think this may be the best bet if you like the Bobcats and care about the long-term value of your bets.

Basically, if the bobcats are going to cover tonight it's most likely going to be because of defense

blanco · 12-10-12, 07:48 AM

Originally posted by shimeon40

Translate that blanco..does juicing mean getting more money??...whats your take on it.? are they wanting people to back GWS

yup, they are considered the sharper books. they are offering a more attractive line (-4 instead of -4.5) so that if you like golden state you'll play it with them. And they only collect juice on a loss, so the only benefit to doing this is if they had a lean on the bobcats.

shimeon40 · 12-10-12, 07:49 AM

If somethings being "juiced" does it look something like this...

....??

blanco · 12-10-12, 07:54 AM

lol. it's -4 (-115) at those books instead of -4.5 (-110) elsewhere. so you'd pay 15% juice if you backed golden state and lost with them as compared to 10% everywhere else. They're saying we like the bobcats, we'll give you a half point that we don't think will matter so we can charge you more when you lose