Lakers @ Rockets - Over 213.5

[Mocknroll]

I've been eyeing this one off for a couple of days and thought this would open right around 210.

It opened at 213.5 and is already at 214.5. I thought with such a high number that this would get driven down, but it's headed in the other direction.

I would usually stay away from lines this high, and I feel like a lunatic for taking the over at any number when Dwight Howard is involved, but this seems like a solid play to me.

Rockets at home have been good to me with overs.

Anyone have any thoughts or opinions?

[king_danilo92]

im rolling witth this one.. lets do it.

[shimeon40]

too high

[Butterface]

I like the okc/nets over 191.5 better, but good luck with this play!

[BabyMatrix27]

Im a lil worried now that opponents will continue to foul Dwight in the 4qtr to slow the pace and with his horrible FT % could mean another under for the total score!

[lonegambler]

both teams played eachother last week i think the total was 205 and went over but alot? thats y this line in inflated to 213

[lonegambler]

nov 18 119-108 at staple center

[lonegambler]

also just seen the rockets have been off for 3 days

[TheFlash]

213.... will happily go the under, lets be honest for the line to go over alot of things have to go right....everyone shoot well etc. So I think theres more chance of an under here.

[TheFlash]

Andddddddd Lakers Avg 100 - Rockets Avg 103.

[pip2]

nov 18 119-108 at staple center

The two teams scored 128 points in the first half. Something to consider if the odds makers set today's first half line at 107 or so...

[Mocknroll]

Some very valid points.

While I do like to look at teams average scores, I much prefer to look at matchups and playing styles when playing totals.

Both teams may average just over 100 a piece, but that's when they're playing against defensive teams who slow the play down and choke them from the arc. I can this one being a free-for-all with the winning team being hotter from the field. I think this game is going to be a jousting match. Minimal defense, and strongest offense will win it.

Also, the 'hack'a'dwight' strategy in theory would severly hinder overs, but the one thing it does do is stop the clock, which actually helps the over. If Dwight shoots 15/30 from the line, we're talking 15 points put up when the clock was stopped. This also is dependent on when he was fouled in relation to the 24 of course, but it's not all doom and gloom. Also, who's to say Dwight is guranteed to shoot 50% from the line? He might get it up to 60-70 (I doubt it, but he could).

Don't get me wrong, this is not the type of line I go to town on, but I think we are so conditioned as basketball bettors to steer clear of anything over 200, but this is set high for a reason.

Heck, Toronto were involved in a game that went to 223 today.

[lonegambler]

And remember whose the lakers coach? Thank u $$$$ the over at 214 cause this will be the 220"s

[TheFlash]

Well Im just going to stay away from this one now, good luck brahs

[crackerjack]

213.... will happily go the under, lets be honest for the line to go over alot of things have to go right....everyone shoot well etc. So I think theres more chance of an under here.

This. It very well could go over, but you have to have four perfect quarters. Any scoring drought of any significant length and the bet is dead. I would probably just stay away and this is the kind of game where the bet, regardless of which side you are on, gives you gray hairs.

[wguan2]

Just FYI, the hack a dwight actually saved the over that looked guaranteed but died in the 3rd quarter on Sunday night.

[CHAZ]

Two of the highest paced teams in the NBA,

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/teamstats/_/sort/paceFactor

Houston, gives up the 2nd most pts in the league.


Over or nothing.

[AllLogicBets]

Average totals for these teams on the season doesn't tell the story. The Lakers played at a much slower pace the first part of the season until they knew they were getting Mike D as coach. The Rockets have also picked up their pace a lot recently. They are averaging 117.5 ppg in their last 4 games. I don't see either of these teams slowing down the pace in this one.