sando, goatmilk, trd, wguan, t-wizzle superthread?

[vancityswag]

Hey I'm new to nba capping but have been surfing through you guy's threads and picking games that you guys seem to agree on. Believe it or not sitting at a nice 52-27-3.

You guys probably have your own threads to build your own fanbase and whatnot but how amazing would it be if you guys all collaberated on one thread and discussed your picks.

[blanco]

you could just use this thread to compile them all if you want

[therealdealau]

Hey mate, i can't speak for the others but the reason I choose to have my own thread is for my own discipline and keeping a track record of my plays so i can learn from my mistakes in the future. That been said I would be more than happy to discuss plays with others and get a good forum of conversation about the games going as I enjoy chatting to others who have a strong opinion (backed up ofcourse with analysis), either way I'm happy to share my thoughts or plays.

[vancityswag]

I'll probably end up doing that. I've been compiling everything on my phone anyways. Itd be nice to get some discussion between the powerhouses though.

[vancityswag]

Hey mate, i can't speak for the others but the reason I choose to have my own thread is for my own discipline and keeping a track record of my plays so i can learn from my mistakes in the future. That been said I would be more than happy to discuss plays with others and get a good forum of conversation about the games going as I enjoy chatting to others who have a strong opinion (backed up ofcourse with analysis), either way I'm happy to share my thoughts or plays.

Awesome. I'm surprised no1 has done this already. You guys have discussions on threads every now and then and obviously have a lot of respect for each other.

[vancityswag]

Here are some thoughts on 3 games i am likely to play tomorrow. Im weary about it because not long ago the blazers/bucks screwed me but I think they are in a strong position here. Give me your thoughts, disagree or agree I wanna hear em.

Portland +1.5

Portland are an incredibly tough team to cap because you are basically betting on all of their starters to be lights out. It’s well known now that they have arguably the worst bench in the NBA and it is their starters that win them games. I just think that the Portland starting 5 is too big of a mismatch over the Bobcats and they should utilize the mismatches all over the floor to grind out a win. Aldridge will get his jumper all day and Lillard should have some nice looks shooting over a smaller Kemba Walker. The biggest mismatch on the floor I believe is Wesley Matthews who is just too big and athletic for any one on the Bobcats. I expect him to get out of his shooting slump and put up some solid production.

Bucks -4


The Bucks for me are one of the comeback kings so far of this season, they have been down and out in many games and came back firing to win, this is namely due to streaky shooting. The Bucks are certainly in the race for picking up the 8^th spot in the East and will be looking at collecting “easy” wins and nailing these. I believe the Hornets will have no answers for the Milwaukee backcourt. I have been extremely impressed by John Henson who has taken the starting role off Ilysaova, he has been really active on the glass and putting up some nice points. The good thing about the Henson situation is it is making Ilysova work and since the switch he has been putting up numbers we are used to seeing. A great return to the team is Mbah a Moute who offers some great size off the bench and he is efficient. Sanders has been a surprise package, he torched the Celtics in their last game and was pulling down boards all over the place. Many will think the backcourt is what will allow the Bucks to cover this game however it is the bigs off the bench that I think will subsequently do the damage. There is too much size and skill on this lineup for the Hornets, the Bucks just need to focus on maintaining a lead.

Clippers -2
Tough call here but I believe the Clippers have the goods in Utah, since their OT loss to the Thunder way back in mid November the Clippers have been on a slide. I think they have settled down now and can get back on track, Chauncey back into the side creates a lot more stability in the team and some much needed experience down the stretch. It must be said that Utah are a completely different side when they play at home, currently undefeated and in possession of one of the best front courts in the NBA it will be a daunting task for the Clippers. The first thing I like about this play here is that there are a number of Utah players that are banged up, Marvin Williams is recovering from a concussion, Favors having trouble with his foot and Carroll is having shoulder pain. Regardless whether they play or not they will not be 100% and this will certainly effect the depth of the Jazz side. I think the Clippers have the size to deal with the Jazz but it needs to be a collective effort defensively that puts them over the edge. Bench production in my opinion will be the reason for the cover, Barnes has been surprisingly productive and is stroking the 3 quite well, Crawfords production has declined which was expected with the return of Chauncey but he is still a key offensive player.

Thanks!

[therealdealau]

Your welcome pal, I haven't locked anything yet but most likely will hit all 3. Goat is also on Portland.

[brainfreeze0]

Personally I like Charlotte here. Portlands been struggling as of late. Lilliard comes and shoots his ass off one game and doesn't hit anything the next. The only place I believe the Bobcats might struggle here is defending the paint vs Aldridge. Thing is Charlotte has a few things they are fighting for here. 1) They want to break that 7 win marker they were locked in to last season to surpass it. 2) They are trying to work their way into the 8th seed (at least) and a win here would put them one win behind tying Boston for that 8th seed and passing up Indiana. Portland is really fighting for nothing here in the West as their competition will pretty much guarantee them no spot for the playoffs (even this early in the season unless they get their act together and even then theyd have a long road). That being said I see a lot of points in this game and like the over.

Also like Clippers here. If they can contain Foye and Williams outside the arc I think they will have no problems outscoring Utah. Also like the over in this game.

As for NO, without Davis I'm not gonna put too much stock in Austin Rivers carrying this squad. Homecourt advantage makes no difference here as Denver showed. They're outmatched here imo.

I do like Toronto +10 1/2 tomorrow as well as the over tomorrow. If they can keep from having a 4Q meltdown should be a pretty good dogfight

[vancityswag]

Very nice. Who says Aussies don't know NBA? I'd like to ad add a couple of points

*Luc Mbah a Moute's return is massive for the Bucks. May take a couple of games to adjust to NBA pace, however this is one guy who keeps himself in supreme physical condition and is without doubt one of the premier defenders in the NBA. Can completely take guys out of a game and has the rare ability to be able to guard anyone from 1-4 (Lebron the only other guy who can do this).

** Both Williams and Favors are 50/50 to play. Unlikely they both suit up against the Clip's.

***Portland actually really match up well with Bobcats. Cannot be understated. Bobcats two main weapons in Walker and MKG are both outmatched at their respective positions by Lillard and Batum although I am slightly worried MKG could physically "bully" Batum. Also Hornets X-factor in Gordon likely struggle against a bigger, solid defensive player in MAtthews. Lets see how many wide open mid-range jumpers Matthews gives him. Common knoledge on any scouting report on Gordon, YOU DON'T LET HIM HEAT UP. Guy reminds me of John Starks from the Knicks, pressure him defensively and keep him "cold" and he will remain a non factor. Let him hit a few wide open mid-range J's and if he heats up he will then demand Kobe style double teamsd and still hit his J all night long.

Sando's response to TRD's picks. Thanks!

[vancityswag]

NBA

Milwaukee @ New Orleans

Bucks -4 (-110 Pinnacle) 2x

*-4 won't last. If you like the play then take it now. I expect -5 by game time tomorrow. (Buy the hook or PYOL if you have to for no worse than -115)

Seems like bucks are the play tommorow. Best of luck!

[brainfreeze0]

Also remember, Gerald Hendersons supposed to be returning any time now. Could easily be this game

[vancityswag]

PLAY 53: BLAZERS +1.5 -108 RISK $324 to win $300

PLAY 54: BLAZERS -6 +232 RISK 50 TO WIN 116

heritage lines

Blazers coming off a game where they had 3 separate chances to win at the buzzer and finally hit an unreal shot by Batum to win the game. I think Aldridge was thinking about leaving but if they reel off some wins Blazers could be solid not great.

The Bobcats are simply outmatched here at nearly every position. Kemba may be able to keep up with LIllard on both ends, but Aldridge should have his way with Mullans, Haywood, or that one other guy whos name I can't pronounce on him. He will want to show up some scrubs. Gilchrest is going to see a lot of time from Batum who is an excellent all around defender unless you know how to post up which Gilchrest does not really. Mathews also should show Taylor the rookie a thing or two. Ben Gordan and Sessions are nice sparks off the bench. If you have a bench you can win road games always. Portland doesn't have a good bench but their guys are long athletic players that should make things tough for the bobcats smaller guards.

This is a starters game for Portland I think they will want to end this road trip on a good note. Port D is solid but you can beat them up inside the paint. Bobcats don't have a big team that does that. Without 20 from Mullans this team doesn't win. Gilchrest needs to score 15ish. Walker should play decent bt I don't think the other guys will be able to do much. Mathews and Battum are the keys to this game to shutting down the shooters Gilchrest, Taylor.

I don't see how you can leave Mullans in for long. Unless Aldridge just has an off night he should abuse him.

TRD & Goat Milk on the same page! Hopefully this thread helps for a lot of people who are doing what I'm doing and tailing the pros.

Thanks brainfreeze for the input! Would also be nice to hear from lakerboy, laker-crazy, ms. Degan!

[vancityswag]

Edit by Sando:

** Mbah a Moute is finally back. Massive in for the Bucks. Premier defensive player in this league.
*** Edit - too many games on my mind. Henderson big in for the Bobcats, wrong game haha.

[vancityswag]

Any "totals" specialists out there with some plays for tonight?

[Brutus84]

Goat sucks. Might be good at picking one game a night in NBA but I would never follow that guy. Look at his threads for NFL and other games. All LOSERS

[Brutus84]

My NBA record would most likely be top 10 as well. Most of my losses came from trying to do parlays. GL, take the Clippers.

[RJKing]

this is a great idea. Good Job!

[vancityswag]

2012.2013:

Overall Record: 19 - 11 - 2 ~ ~~63.33% win rate

Spread: 14 - 4 - 2
Totals: 5 - 7 - 0


Up/Down $$: +$974.38

Bankroll: $5,974.38........ I bet 3% of this number on each play, each day.

________________________________________ ________________________________________ _____________________________

Play for 12/3/2012....

Clippers -1.5 @ Jazz

$179.23 to win $162.94

Clippers appear to be hitting their stride, again. Billups has brought a little lift to the Clip show and conversely, the Jazz appear to be cooling off. I think the Jazz success at home has slightly deflated this line. Over the last few games, the Jazz have been horrid on the defensive end. Facing one of the top scoring teams in the association won't help the Jazz reverse that trend.

A4K thanks! Definitely won some money tailing you in the past! Hope to get some more insight from you on this thread!

[shimeon40]

2 plays people in love with..clips and bucks...anyone factor in vegas ?...

[brainfreeze0]

Here's my record over 250 games before I stopped keeping tabs a month ago.

http://brainfreeze0.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

Got tired of spending 15 minutes a day typing it all in. I bet practically all the games to see how well I could pick them, not just my best picks and still ran right at 60%. I just never kept a thread because I'd of been as lazy at that as I would have keeping a spreadsheet plus didn't want to have to deal with the bs these guys deal with if they pick one wrong or variance sets in.

[brainfreeze0]

2 plays people in love with..clips and bucks...anyone factor in vegas ?...

I usually factor in Vegas on the big spreads. If 2 teams are pretty close in talent and spreads are fairly close its more about who wants it more imo

[ParlayBricker]

Over in Clippers / Jazz @ 197 now

Clippers last 3 games against teams with much less offensive talent ( Sac, NO, Min) have all been floating around the 200 mark , jazz usually score around 100 a game a home, definatley see clippers making this a tight game, both teams will finish in triple digits if they are both hungry for a W

[ParlayBricker]

Unfortunatley i am on the jazz tonight, clippers off a 3 game home stand and jazz coming off a 3 day road trip, both with rest, think the home team comes out here and as we all know the jazz are a different animal @ home

[shimeon40]

Thanks brainy..vegas tip...bucks or clips wont both cover..wonder which one vegas would rip the most money out of..thats the team that will not cover..a bit of ref input to help

[vancityswag]

Adding:

Blazers -103 ML (Heritage)
Raptors +10 -108 (5 Dimes)


NBA Card Complete

LT also had bucks/ hornets u189 (-110) good luck!

[vancityswag]

12/03/2012

NBA - $400 to win $392.16
Under 191.5 Trailblazers/Bobcats

NBA - $400 to win $380.95
Cleveland Cavs +5.5 @ Detroit Pistons

NBA - $500 to win $476.19
Over 195 Magic/Golden State

NFL - $500 to win $476.19
NY Giants -1 (first half) @ Washington Redskins

Been watching ms. degans picks and tailed on a couple which agreed with the main posters i follow. She'd been doing well! Hope this helps!

[k4cowboys4k]

My only comment to the blazers backers pointing out Wesley Matthews as a positive factor, he has been playing the past few games with a wrap on his hand due to a sprained thumb. This injury has really affected his shooting as shown by his 7-28 with only 2 threes since hurting it.

[16johnnymac]

Portland opened at 194 O/U now is at 192.5 Under looking Good Here Yes??? I dont cap at all I have been studying everyone on SBR and follow solid cappers like you guys Best of luck to all Let Break The Books$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ and get the brinks truck bright and early for a pick up of Heavy Cash$$$$$$$$$$$ LOL

Thanks for your information

Johnny Mac

[vancityswag]

NBA Overall YTD Record: 26-20-1 (56.52%)
Sides: 19-13-1 (59.38%)
Totals: 7-7 (50%)

Units: +6.14

12/3 Plays:

CLIPPERS -1.5 at Jazz (-110) 2u
You might still be able to find the Clippers at +1.5 at some books. The rub here is that LA has lost 38 of their last 40 in Utah and Utah is 6-0 at home this season. That is why there is so much value with the Clippers in this spot. The Clippers are 1-0 in Utah when Chris Paul plays and now they also have Crawford. The Clippers also come into this game healthy while Utah is without Derrick Favors and Marvin Williams. Favors is there best interior defender so he will be sorely missed against DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin.

BUCKS -4 at Hornets (-110) 2u
These teams met once earlier this season in Milwaukee and the Bucks came out on top by 4 points. So why would I take them as 4 point favorites on the road? In that game in Milwaukee Anthony Davis was 10 for 14 shooting with 28 points and 11 rebounds and the Hornets as a team shot over 53%. I don't think the Hornets will shoot over 50% again and they will obviously be without Anthony Davis. Milwaukee has found a premiere defender in Larry Sanders this season. Two games ago he had a triple double that included 10 blocked shots and last game against Boston he had 18 points, 16 rebounds, and 5 blocks. The guy is starting to remind me of Ben Wallace in his prime but with a little scoring ability. Milwaukee is without Beno Udrih who has been terrific off the bench this season. He will be missed more then people realize while he is out with an ankle injury. However, the Bucks just got back one of the best defensive players in the league in Luc Richard Mbah Moute. Kevin Durant has said that Moute defends him better then anyone in the league which is high praise. Moute also had a nice looking jumpshot against Boston his first game back. If he has developed a jumper then he will be a huge weapon this season. Think Bruce Bowen without the 3 point shot.

Clippers & Bucks!! Lets lock and load!!

[vancityswag]

December 3 Picks (collaborated info from sando, TRD, goat milk & others)

Clippers - 2 (-110) 2u
Bucks -4 (-110) 2u

Buddy of mine who pays for his picks has bobcats tonight so I'm holding off on that one for now. BOL

[Catchn_Picks]

Great idea vancity

[vancityswag]

Great idea vancity

Thanks! Good luck today!

[vancityswag]

Clippers - 2 (-110) 2u
Bucks -4 (-110) 2u

Buddy of mine who pays for his picks has bobcats tonight so I'm holding off on that one for now. BOL

Adding:

Blazers/ Bobcats u192.5 1u
Bobcats -1 1u

[brainfreeze0]

Adding:

Blazers/ Bobcats u192.5 1u
Bobcats -1 1u

You know Lilliard and Mullins put up a lot of 3's right? Sessions draws a lot of fouls with his style of play. He fast breaks to the rim with plenty of time on the shot clock and either hits it or draws the foul with stopping the clock a lot of the time. Just some points to consider. Neither team is great at D

[ParlayBricker]

I must be the only one on this planet on the jazz tonight