Stop playing full game spreads. My first 2 plays of the season. Backed by statistics.

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  • blanco
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 03-06-12
    • 876
    #1
    Stop playing full game spreads. My first 2 plays of the season. Backed by statistics.
    More opportunities for value elsewhere.

    Mavericks Q2 +1.5 -115 (5dimes) (2 units)

    Mavs are 5-1-1 SU this year in Q2 on the road with point differentials of 6,7,4,14,1,-1,0
    Bulls are 3-4 SU in Q2 at home with point differentials of 2,1,-2,-1,-2,-6,3

    The Mavs bench is much stronger than the Bulls bench this year.

    Bulls Q3 -1.5 -115 (5dimes) (2 units)

    Bulls are 6-1 SU this year in Q3 at home with point differentials of 2,-4,1,7,6,4,7
    Mavericks are 2-5 SU this year in Q3 on the road with point differentials of 6,-24,-8,-6, -18, 3, -5.

    Coach Thibs is known to get the Bulls riled up at halftime and is a very smart coach who makes strong halftime adjustments.

    Even more favorable for this trend is that the Mavs played in Philly last night in a close game, so fatigue should start to show by Q3 against a Bulls team who is sure to give a strong full game effort after the Bucks meltdown. Especially the starters.

    GL
    Tags: None
    • GreenT
      SBR Rookie
      • 11-22-12
      • 27
      #2
      Your picks were some interesting ones, thats why I decided to add one of them in a parlay with pistons -3. Luckily I picked the winning one, Bulls Q3 -1.5 and got some money 50% because of you! Keep up the good work and im sure your job will be much more appreciated in the next days.. Thanks for helping me cashing!!
        Comment
        • hockey216
          SBR MVP
          • 08-20-08
          • 4583
          #3
          what statistical models did u use
            Comment
            • blanco
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 03-06-12
              • 876
              #4
              Originally posted by hockey216
              what statistical models did u use
              No models.... just been looking at a lot of quarter by quarter trends by teams. The lakers are a very interesting quarter by quarter team. We will probably have a lot of plays involving them. They are a Q1/Q4 team and awful in Q2.
                Comment
                • blanco
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 03-06-12
                  • 876
                  #5
                  Originally posted by GreenT
                  Your picks were some interesting ones, thats why I decided to add one of them in a parlay with pistons -3. Luckily I picked the winning one, Bulls Q3 -1.5 and got some money 50% because of you! Keep up the good work and im sure your job will be much more appreciated in the next days.. Thanks for helping me cashing!!
                  The Mavericks had their typical Q3 meltdown early last night in Q2. Lucky they couldn't get it together after that anyways though!
                    Comment
                    • blanco
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 03-06-12
                      • 876
                      #6
                      The lakers are 10-5 in Q1, 5-8-2 in Q2, and 8-4-3 Q4 this year. I'm going to go back and do all of 2011-2012 though because this sample is small but I remember noticing this trend last year with the lakers which is why I even looked into this stuff in the first place
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