O/U picks on all games tonight

[jwennlund]

I have been working on this formula that measures the variance between the spread of a teams points allowed vs points scored taking the average against their opponents value to determine a likely O/U outcome. None of the lines were less than 2 points from my formula results. I have been tweaking the formula for a while and this is my first go at it with live money....let the crazy mad scientist work begin.

Over 193 (-115)
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Washington Wizards

Under 197 (-105)
San Antonio Spurs vs. Orlando Magic

<label class="description left">Over 190
Brooklyn Nets vs. Boston Celtics

</label>Under 195
Charlotte Bobcats vs. Atlanta Hawks

Under 198
Phoenix Suns vs. Detroit Pistons

Over 191
Dallas Mavericks vs. Chicago Bulls

Under 202
New York Knicks vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Over 191 (-105)
Toronto Raptors vs. Memphis Grizzlies

Over 191
Utah Jazz vs. New Orleans Hornets

Under 210
Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Under 194 (-115)
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Clippers

I bet 1 unit on each play, there are a few that make me a little nervous but all I want is a plus .500 record here so let the games begin!


I put a 1 unit parlay on it all just in case

[mrsolodolo21]

I have been back-testing a formula for NBA totals as well. My system depends more on tempo, offensive and defensive efficiency, with some weight carried in the last 5 games played. I finally feel like there is enough data at this point in the season, that I have put it in "trial mode" with the hopes of it going live by around Christmas time. Anyway, here are the plays that I have, it appears you have taken the same side in each of these as well:

Orlando-San Antonio Under 197

Minnesota-Clippers Under 192

Portland-Washington Over 193

Best of luck!

[jwennlund]

I am at the absolute minimum sample size for the variance to have any significance but it has done extremely well back tested through the past couple of seasons and I just cant wait anymore to go live.

I also tested on NCAAB, NHL and MLB but NBA is literally the only league besides the testing I have yet to do with soccer that has enough frequency/consistency to keep the models semi accurate. Premier league is next on the testing list. If things work out as I hope they do I plan on creating a calc that pulls the data automatically from score sources and spits out picks because the manual method is exhausting.

GL tonight

[alamo]

7 Losses from first 10 games. Not what we were hoping to start with.

[jwennlund]

no sir, lots of unders last night. It fell within the tested range so lets see how tonight goes.

Single #274693656
Basketball - NBA Lines (Game) Total
(501) San Antonio Spurs vs. (502) Miami Heat
Under 205 Nov 29/12@06:05p


Single #274693655
Basketball - NBA Lines (Game) Total
(503) Denver Nuggets vs. (504) Golden State Warriors
Under 200 Nov 29/12@08:35p

3-7-0

[jwennlund]

my gut tells me den/gs will wind up going over but I'm sticking to my guns here. Going to stay with live money at least through the end of the week.