Vreston's European Basketball Thread 2012-2013

[Vreston]

Hi everyone!

I'm back posting my picks for this season in European Basketball. I might even post some NBA plays from time to time although I haven't in my previous threads mainly because there are so many other people posting their NBA plays.
I haven't made any posts yet this year for quite a few reasons. Mainly because I didn't have a computer for a couple of months while waiting to get mine fixed and also because of work.
Anyway I'm starting up again and hopefully this will be another good season.

[Vreston]

Eurocup

Lukoil Academic - Bilbao
Pick: Bilbao -5 @ 1.90

I'm starting with Eurocup to get warmed up for Euroleague.
Eurocup has proven to be really hard to predict at times in the past seasons so I take it light with it.

Bilbao has started stepping on the gas lately and I'm hoping they will go for 3 for 3 in their European games.
Zisis and Vasiliades the greek duo is in good shape and with the excellent coaching of Fotis Katsikaris I think that Bilbao has more quality and solutions than the Bulgarian team. I'm looking at a win of more than 3 points, but the line is at -5 so I decided to take my chances with it.
Lukoil has one win at home against a weak Charleroi team and it will probably not get one tonight.


As always the odds I post are with Bet365 unless I say otherwise. Let's go!

[Vreston]

Eurocup

Lukoil Academic - Bilbao
Pick: Bilbao -5 @ 1.90 - Won (64-85)

I'm starting with Eurocup to get warmed up for Euroleague.
Eurocup has proven to be really hard to predict at times in the past seasons so I take it light with it.

Bilbao has started stepping on the gas lately and I'm hoping they will go for 3 for 3 in their European games.
Zisis and Vasiliades the greek duo is in good shape and with the excellent coaching of Fotis Katsikaris I think that Bilbao has more quality and solutions than the Bulgarian team. I'm looking at a win of more than 3 points, but the line is at -5 so I decided to take my chances with it.
Lukoil has one win at home against a weak Charleroi team and it will probably not get one tonight.


As always the odds I post are with Bet365 unless I say otherwise. Let's go!

Bilbao had no problem.
Love it when things start off with a win!

[Vreston]

I don't usually post a lot of games, but I've studied these and I think they've got a good chance of winning.

I have very little time because I have to run to work so here they are:

Euroleague

CSKA Moscow - Partizan
Pick: Partizan +14.5 @ 1.90

Barcelona - Lietuvos Rytas
Pick: Barcelona -17 @ 1.90

Milano - Cedevita
Pick: Cedevita +8 @ 1.90

Olympiakos - Anadolu Efes
Pick: Olympiakos -6 @ 1.95

Unicaja Malaga - Aseko Prokom
Pick: Unicaja -14.5 @ 1.90


Let's see how we do!

[Vreston]

I don't usually post a lot of games, but I've studied these and I think they've got a good chance of winning.

I have very little time because I have to run to work so here they are:

Euroleague

CSKA Moscow - Partizan
Pick: Partizan +14.5 @ 1.90 - Loss (78-61)

Barcelona - Lietuvos Rytas
Pick: Barcelona -17 @ 1.90 - Won (90-66)

Milano - Cedevita
Pick: Cedevita +8 @ 1.90 - Loss (75-60)

Olympiakos - Anadolu Efes
Pick: Olympiakos -6 @ 1.95 - Won (75-53)

Unicaja Malaga - Aseko Prokom
Pick: Unicaja -14.5 @ 1.90 - Won (63-48)


Let's see how we do!

Went 3-2 on the day so I can't complain. Partizan could've managed the cover, but you can't win 'em all.

[Micro]

Great job

[Vreston]

For today

Greece A1 Basketball

Kolossos Rhodes - Olympiakos
Pick: Olympiakos -16.5 @ 1.90

I know it's a lot of chalk, but Olympiakos can go over 20 if it wants to with no problem. We'll see.

Spain ACB

Cajasol - Real Madrid
Pick: Real Madrid -12 @ 1.90

[freshguy222]

do you have any previous records? what are you generally hitting ATS?

[Vreston]

For today

Greece A1 Basketball

Kolossos Rhodes - Olympiakos
Pick: Olympiakos -16.5 @ 1.90 - Loss (72-88)

I know it's a lot of chalk, but Olympiakos can go over 20 if it wants to with no problem. We'll see.

Spain ACB

Cajasol - Real Madrid
Pick: Real Madrid -12 @ 1.90 - Loss (63-71)

A loss is a loss I know, but sometimes it's the way it happens that gets to me. I lost the Olympiakos game which I thought was in the bag. Two missed free throws in the last seconds and then the opponent takes a useless three point shot at the buzzer with no D and sinks it...

[Vreston]

do you have any previous records? what are you generally hitting ATS?

I have had (I think) two season long threads for European basketball before this one not counting picks I have made in discussions here and there. I don't think I updated my record in last year's and now that you reminded me I'll get to it sometime in the next few days. The one from two years ago I updated back then. I also have had threads with my soccer picks, but they are much less than my basketball picks. Feel free to have a look.

[Vreston]

I'm on some basketball games for Eurocup, but only one hasn't started. I just got home so I couldn't post before. So here it is:

Eurocup

Bilbao - Lukoil Academic
Pick: Bilbao -12.5 @ 1.90

Last week I had Bilbao -5 @ Lukoil & they won by 21. Today they're at home so I'm sticking with the better (and hot) team. In the meantime they went and won an away game at Fuenlabrada on Saturday.

[Vreston]

I'm on some basketball games for Eurocup, but only one hasn't started. I just got home so I couldn't post before. So here it is:

Eurocup

Bilbao - Lukoil Academic
Pick: Bilbao -12.5 @ 1.90 - Won (82-60)

Last week I had Bilbao -5 @ Lukoil & they won by 21. Today they're at home so I'm sticking with the better (and hot) team. In the meantime they went and won an away game at Fuenlabrada on Saturday.

Bilbao covered easily and paid me for the second time in a week. This is a team to watch.

[Vreston]

Euroleague

Montepaschi Siena - Unicaja Malaga
Pick: Siena -5 @ 1.90

Siena is in good form and it has proved it lately. They won away with Macabbi and they made easy work of Cantu in Italy. They need one or two more wins to clinch their way to the Top 16 and I think that against Malaga who don't have to worry about points and are already through they should be able to get the cover. They are a good defensive team and they can cause trouble for Malaga's scorers. I don't think that the cover is one that Siena can't cover and I'll go with them today.


I'm also leaning on Olympiakos +4. They should be going for some pay back today and if anything try to keep it close. If Olympiakos keeps playing like it has lately it's possible.

[pellumb341]

Nice job buddy ,

but plz keep a record of W/L/P and units

[Vreston]

Nice job buddy ,

but plz keep a record of W/L/P and units

OK man, I will keep my record running. But I never post units. It's up to everybody to bet as many units as they want. I don't want to affect a person's bankroll. I don't want to be the reason for someone to lose a lot of money if one of my picks doesn't win. I've seen that happen to others too many times. I've talked about my reasoning behind this in more detail in my thread last year I think.

[GreenT]

Euroleague

Montepaschi Siena - Unicaja Malaga
Pick: Siena -5 @ 1.90

Siena is in good form and it has proved it lately. They won away with Macabbi and they made easy work of Cantu in Italy. They need one or two more wins to clinch their way to the Top 16 and I think that against Malaga who don't have to worry about points and are already through they should be able to get the cover. They are a good defensive team and they can cause trouble for Malaga's scorers. I don't think that the cover is one that Siena can't cover and I'll go with them today.


I'm also leaning on Olympiakos +4. They should be going for some pay back today and if anything try to keep it close. If Olympiakos keeps playing like it has lately it's possible.

Im 100% with you in Sienas pick. Olympiakos +4 seems really interesting but I think i need to see the first 2-3 minutes of the game before placing a live bet!!
Best of luck!

[16johnnymac]

I am taking a all bet on the under here to thx

Euroleague

Montepaschi Siena - Unicaja Malaga
Pick: Siena -5 @ 1.90

Siena is in good form and it has proved it lately. They won away with Macabbi and they made easy work of Cantu in Italy. They need one or two more wins to clinch their way to the Top 16 and I think that against Malaga who don't have to worry about points and are already through they should be able to get the cover. They are a good defensive team and they can cause trouble for Malaga's scorers. I don't think that the cover is one that Siena can't cover and I'll go with them today.


I'm also leaning on Olympiakos +4. They should be going for some pay back today and if anything try to keep it close. If Olympiakos keeps playing like it has lately it's possible.

[Vreston]

Euroleague

Montepaschi Siena - Unicaja Malaga
Pick: Siena -5 @ 1.90 - Won (91-72)

Siena is in good form and it has proved it lately. They won away with Macabbi and they made easy work of Cantu in Italy. They need one or two more wins to clinch their way to the Top 16 and I think that against Malaga who don't have to worry about points and are already through they should be able to get the cover. They are a good defensive team and they can cause trouble for Malaga's scorers. I don't think that the cover is one that Siena can't cover and I'll go with them today.


I'm also leaning on Olympiakos +4. They should be going for some pay back today and if anything try to keep it close. If Olympiakos keeps playing like it has lately it's possible.

It turns out it was a walk in the park for Siena. They pulled away towards the end of the first quarter and never looked back. They were sinking three pointers all over the place plus they played good defense.
Also just for the record, my lean on Olympiakos was on the money as they not only covered, but they won straight up by a score of 63-77!

__________________

2012-2013 Season (W-L-P): 6-4-0

[Vreston]

I'm on a few plays today in Europe. One is already in play so forget it. These are the others.


Bilbao - Manresa
Pick: Bilbao -13.5 @ 1.90

Bilbao has been on fire lately and even though they're coming off a European win in the Eurocup I'll take them against last place Manresa at home to cover the chalk.

Gran Canaria - Valencia
Pick: Gran Canaria +4 @ 1.90

Even though Gran Canaria is in great form and at home they're being given 4 points against Valencia which is in a slump and without big men as both their big men were injured. They went and signed a French center from Chalon who was let go because of a behavioral issue. I'll take the hot team with the points at home.

[Vreston]

I'm on a few plays today in Europe. One is already in play so forget it. These are the others.


Bilbao - Manresa
Pick: Bilbao -13.5 @ 1.90 - Won (83-63)

Bilbao has been on fire lately and even though they're coming off a European win in the Eurocup I'll take them against last place Manresa at home to cover the chalk.

Gran Canaria - Valencia
Pick: Gran Canaria +4 @ 1.90 - Loss (65-79)
Even though Gran Canaria is in great form and at home they're being given 4 points against Valencia which is in a slump and without big men as both their big men were injured. They went and signed a French center from Chalon who was let go because of a behavioral issue. I'll take the hot team with the points at home.

Bilbao continues to pay me and they've proven to be quite dependable. On the other hand, I really wasn't expecting such a show from Gran Canaria especially after Valencia was without their big players in the paint.

__________________

2012-2013 Season (W-L-P): 7-5-0

[Vreston]

There are a lot of games going on in Europe today.
I'm on some early games.

Italy Lega 1
Roma - Cimberio Varese
Pick: Cimberio Varese +2.5 @ 1.90

Varese is a train on a run this year. They are currently undefeated (9-0) and are going into 5th place Roma (5-4). I've been reading that their run has to stop somewhere and Roma is a difficult opponent with a tough home court, but I'm not buying it. Roma lost to Siena by 11 at home. I'm comparing Varese to Siena because Siena is a top caliber team which is currently in 3rd place in Italy and also plays in the Euroleague. I will take my chances with them and the +2.5. The line changed by the way. It was Roma +2.5 at some books some days ago and went to PK earlier today and now it's at Varese +2.5.

[Vreston]

Also in Spain ACB

Juventut - CB Canarias
Pick: Juventut -8.5 @ 1.90

I just don't think Canarias will cover this line.


Lagun Aro GBC - Caja Laboral
Pick: Caja Laboral -7.5 @ 1.90

Caja is coming off a huge comeback victory in Euroleague to play last place Seville. I just don't think that Seville can put up a fight against them even though they are playing at home. They are nowhere near their old selves.

[Vreston]

There are a lot of games going on in Europe today.
I'm on some early games.

Italy Lega 1
Roma - Cimberio Varese
Pick: Cimberio Varese +2.5 @ 1.90 - Loss (91-87)

Varese is a train on a run this year. They are currently undefeated (9-0) and are going into 5th place Roma (5-4). I've been reading that their run has to stop somewhere and Roma is a difficult opponent with a tough home court, but I'm not buying it. Roma lost to Siena by 11 at home. I'm comparing Varese to Siena because Siena is a top caliber team which is currently in 3rd place in Italy and also plays in the Euroleague. I will take my chances with them and the +2.5. The line changed by the way. It was Roma +2.5 at some books some days ago and went to PK earlier today and now it's at Varese +2.5.

A tough loss on this one. Their last try was a layup that bounced off the rim a couple of times...

[Vreston]

Also in Spain ACB

Juventut - CB Canarias
Pick: Juventut -8.5 @ 1.90 - Won (92-81)

I just don't think Canarias will cover this line.


Lagun Aro GBC - Caja Laboral
Pick: Caja Laboral -7.5 @ 1.90 - Loss (69-71)

Caja is coming off a huge comeback victory in Euroleague to play last place Seville. I just don't think that Seville can put up a fight against them even though they are playing at home. They are nowhere near their old selves.

Juventut almost blew a huge lead and at some point I thought I was going to lose this one. Thankfully they woke up in time!

Caja blew it for me again for the second time in less than a week. I'll think twice before trusting them again.

*Also I made a mistake in my comments yesterday. I said that Caja was playing Seville when they weren't. I had another game on my mind. Sorry if there was a mix-up.

__________________

2012-2013 Season (W-L-P): 8-7-0

[Vreston]

Eurocup:

Budocnost - Bilbao
Pick: Bilbao -2.5 @ 1.90

I'm still riding the Bilbao train. I think they can cover today.

[Vreston]

Eurocup:

Budocnost - Bilbao
Pick: Bilbao -2.5 @ 1.90 - Loss (66-68)
I'm still riding the Bilbao train. I think they can cover today.

Ouch! That one hurt. Bilbao lost the cover by half a point after a terrible 3rd quarter. They came back in the fourth, but it wasn't enough.


__________________

2012-2013 Season (W-L-P): 8-8-0

[Vreston]

Euroleague

Elan Chalon - Montepaschi Siena
Pick: Siena -5.5 @ 1.87 (this one at bwin)

I'm late in posting today and I didn't even get a chance to post yesterday. That has cost me a lot in this pick. This morning Siena was @ -3.5 if I remember correctly but I was at work.
Now the line is -6 at bet365 and Pinnacle has them -6.5. Bwin has them @ -5.5 for anyone who's interested.

Anyway I believe that Siena is in another class than Chalon. The French are already out of the next round so they don't have a incentive to play hard apart from their egos. Siena, on the other hand, after the loss by Alba yesterday will probably finish 3rd in the group and even so their incentive is much more than Chalon's.

I was thinking about taking Panathinaikos -4, but they have some serious internal problems with the owners. I don't know if that will affect the players directly. The players are paid so there is no problem there. I still think they will win and cover the -4, but I'm not posting it as a play.

Also Zalgiris is a much better team than Milano. Milano has lots of really good players, but they haven't managed to be a "team" and win games consistently. I can't trust them. I'm leaning Zalgiris +2 @ 1.90, but I'm not posting this as an official play either.

BOL!

[Vreston]

Euroleague

Elan Chalon - Montepaschi Siena
Pick: Siena -5.5 @ 1.87 - Loss (108-103) (this one at bwin)

I'm late in posting today and I didn't even get a chance to post yesterday. That has cost me a lot in this pick. This morning Siena was @ -3.5 if I remember correctly but I was at work.
Now the line is -6 at bet365 and Pinnacle has them -6.5. Bwin has them @ -5.5 for anyone who's interested.

Anyway I believe that Siena is in another class than Chalon. The French are already out of the next round so they don't have a incentive to play hard apart from their egos. Siena, on the other hand, after the loss by Alba yesterday will probably finish 3rd in the group and even so their incentive is much more than Chalon's.

I was thinking about taking Panathinaikos -4, but they have some serious internal problems with the owners. I don't know if that will affect the players directly. The players are paid so there is no problem there. I still think they will win and cover the -4, but I'm not posting it as a play.

Also Zalgiris is a much better team than Milano. Milano has lots of really good players, but they haven't managed to be a "team" and win games consistently. I can't trust them. I'm leaning Zalgiris +2 @ 1.90, but I'm not posting this as an official play either.

BOL!

Lost this one in overtime. What kind of score is this for a Euroleague game! Too bad though because this play wasn't a winner whereas both my other leans were winners...

__________________

2012-2013 Season (W-L-P): 8-9-0

[freshguy222]

wenn the -5,5 road team is up 10 in the 4th quarter you will in nearly all cases cash your bet, do you have plays on the weekend?

[Vreston]

wenn the -5,5 road team is up 10 in the 4th quarter you will in nearly all cases cash your bet, do you have plays on the weekend?

Sorry for not answering earlier.
I didn't post last weekend because of serious power cuts in my area because of terrible storms.

I stayed away from Euroleague this week (thankfully) because it's the last games of this round and strange things can happen. Look at what happened in the Siena (51-28 HT!) and Maccabi (48-24 HT!)games yesterday! Siena even lost in overtime. It was really hard to resist placing a bet on Siena yesterday. Anyway I decided to stay away from today's games as well. My leans were for Zalgiris and Olympiakos to cover, but I didn't make a play. We'll see how those games turn out. It should be interesting.

[freshguy222]

tell me about siena, i had them and could not believe it, they were up 30 points in 2Q as a -15 point fav at home and lost outright.

[Vreston]

Euroleague

Panathinaikos - Unicaja Malaga
Pick: Panathinaikos -8 @ 1.90

BOL!

[Vreston]

Euroleague

Panathinaikos - Unicaja Malaga
Pick: Panathinaikos -8 @ 1.90 - Loss (78-73)

BOL!

Tough break here. Panathinaikos' best player Dimitris Diamantidis had to leave the game because of an injury. Hopefully for them he'll be back soon. They were up by 9 with less than 2 minutes left but they received 8 consecutive points and the lead went down to 1. Then they sealed it, but it wasn't enough for the cover.

__________________

2012-2013 Season (W-L-P): 8-10-0

[Vreston]

Euroleague

Anadolu Efes - Alba Berlin
Pick: Efes -12.5 @ 1.90

I think that if any team wants to have a chance at advancing they have to beat both German teams both home and away. Efes has a really strong home court. Mediocre teams like Alba don't usually do well there. Efes also has good perimeter shooting which should give them the extra edge.


Barcelona - Olympiakos
Pick: Barcelona -7.5 @ 1.90

Olympiakos needs to outdo themselves to win in Barcelona. Not that they can't, but it will be very difficult since their in a bit of a slump and Barcelona seems to be coming out of their slump after some losses in the Spanish league. Navarro is playing well again after his injury and Barcelona's defense should also play a key role.
Olympiakos has to play a near perfect game to win and I'll take my chances with Barca.


Real Madrid - Zalgiris
Pick: Under 154.5 @ 1.90

Zalgiris is not a team that lets scores get out of control. Real is in good condition, but as most teams they can be inconsistent at points in the game. I think this game will be around 152 points.

[Vreston]

Euroleague

Anadolu Efes - Alba Berlin
Pick: Efes -12.5 @ 1.90 - Loss (71-62)

I think that if any team wants to have a chance at advancing they have to beat both German teams both home and away. Efes has a really strong home court. Mediocre teams like Alba don't usually do well there. Efes also has good perimeter shooting which should give them the extra edge.


Barcelona - Olympiakos
Pick: Barcelona -7.5 @ 1.90 - Won (76-68)

Olympiakos needs to outdo themselves to win in Barcelona. Not that they can't, but it will be very difficult since their in a bit of a slump and Barcelona seems to be coming out of their slump after some losses in the Spanish league. Navarro is playing well again after his injury and Barcelona's defense should also play a key role.
Olympiakos has to play a near perfect game to win and I'll take my chances with Barca.


Real Madrid - Zalgiris
Pick: Under 154.5 @ 1.90 - Won (75-74)

Zalgiris is not a team that lets scores get out of control. Real is in good condition, but as most teams they can be inconsistent at points in the game. I think this game will be around 152 points.

I am so pissed off at the result of the Efes - Alba game. Efes had the cover in their pockets, but like so many teams lately they melted down and let Alba shoot and make crazy 3's to make the game close. It can get so frustrating at times. Anyway I can't complain because it was a winning night in the end.

__________________

2012-2013 Season (W-L-P): 10-11-0