Have been working on a totals model over the past 4 months. Considering how well this week has gone, I thought I'd start tracking my plays before my confidence drops.
Without going into detail, my model disregards basic stats like ppg,fg% etc.. instead, its primary focus is to predict the pace of the game. I've put a lot of effort into this and hopefully it spits out +ev bets for us. The biggest gripe about my model is that it requires high maintenance. Counting the exact no. of possessions for every game might seem like a pain in the ass but it's totally worth it.
Last years lockout affected season meant that there were some very soft totals in the opening week. Currently 12-3 on O/U's but will start from scratch.
btw, feel free to join this contest http://contests.sbrforum.com/nba2012-13-contest-4190/ if you want to track your nba plays on sbr.
fwiw, the goal for this season is to hit O/U's at 53-55%. having said that, model is still a work in progress so anything over breakeven will do (51.22%).
NBA totals can be incredibly stressful.. late fouls, OT, shooting efficiency are totally unpredictable on a game by game basis. Will try not to get emotionally attached to games
Without going into detail, my model disregards basic stats like ppg,fg% etc.. instead, its primary focus is to predict the pace of the game. I've put a lot of effort into this and hopefully it spits out +ev bets for us. The biggest gripe about my model is that it requires high maintenance. Counting the exact no. of possessions for every game might seem like a pain in the ass but it's totally worth it.
Last years lockout affected season meant that there were some very soft totals in the opening week. Currently 12-3 on O/U's but will start from scratch.
btw, feel free to join this contest http://contests.sbrforum.com/nba2012-13-contest-4190/ if you want to track your nba plays on sbr.
fwiw, the goal for this season is to hit O/U's at 53-55%. having said that, model is still a work in progress so anything over breakeven will do (51.22%).
NBA totals can be incredibly stressful.. late fouls, OT, shooting efficiency are totally unpredictable on a game by game basis. Will try not to get emotionally attached to games
