Gonz's hip to be square NBA season picks

Gonz312 · 10-31-12, 07:48 PM

What a horrible ending to the 1st qtr of the SA/NO game. Get home from work and its 15-7 spurs, then they proceed to show me that they haven't improved on defense this year.

Gonz312 · 11-01-12, 10:13 AM

Not a bad start, made up hugely on the spurs game by hammering the live line in the 2nd qtr at -2.5, pk, and +2.5. Have seen this team bounce back against bad teams in the second half way too many times to be worried about a 10 pt deficit to the hornets, I try really hard not to be a homer when comes to gambling but at least it paid off last night.

Record to date - (4-2)

Thursday picks: None

some thoughts to why I am laying off tonight copied from my reply in another thread

Laying off today myself...too many questions coming in imo. Will Manu suit up, whos going to step up as a third scorer for okc and will there be a let down in terms of how the harden trade seemed to come as a shock to the players...sa struggled big from 3 yesterday but can easily catch fire at home like few others. With the absurd number of 3s that SA shoots, the 2.5 is basically a one possesion game to me and the whole thing seems like a crapshoot so early in the season

I will simply watch and enjoy it tonight.

GL to those betting the game

Update: going to take a shot at another qtr bet, think the spurs will start hot during home debut

Pick - SA -.5 1Q

Gonz312 · 11-01-12, 11:44 PM

Pretty sure I have to stop betting spurs 1Qs after realizing that they end the 1st with a lineup of patty mills at point and a bunch of guys who can only score off of assists. Seems a little off to me.

Record to date - (4-3)

Locking these in tonight...will probably add a couple qtr/tt bets tomorrow

Friday (11/2) picks
MIA -5.5
MEM Pk
CHI -2.5
MIL/BOS u 197

Couple add-ons (0-2 on plays I make at work btw)
MIL/BOS u 50 1Q
LAC TT o 96.5

Gonz312 · 11-03-12, 12:36 AM

Hell of a night I must say...5-1! Hit a couple of my smaller parlays as well although Miami's no show screwed my big 6-team one

Overall (9-4)

Haven't looked at tomorrow's games yet but will update this post when I do.

Update: Don't know if Ill play any NBA sat, leaning POR + the pts but haven't pulled the trigger with so much money wrapped up in CFB

Gonz312 · 11-03-12, 03:14 PM

Sat (11/3) plays: only have a TT locked in so far

HOU TT u 105.5

Bonus Prop:
Paul Millsap o 14 pts
(guy always has great games against the slow footed spurs front line, really like this one alot even with the added juice and him not hitting that total yet this yr as far as I know)

Update: One last play before I head out, I vowed off Spurs 1Q spreads, but not totals

SA/UTAH o 50 1Q

Gonz312 · 11-03-12, 09:44 PM

So I think I'm done with Spurs 1st qtrs all together. Was expecting more of how the 2nd and 3rd qtrs went to open up. Oh well. Millsap had the pts covered by the end of the 3rd, him and Mo Williams sure love to play the Spurs. I still remember Mo going off on them last season as well. Had to sweat out the Rockets going into OT but they still came up way short in the total.

1-1 on the day with added prop hitting as well.

Breakdown of the season so far.

Overall: 10-5
ATS: 4-2
O/U: 1-0
TT: 3-0
1Q: 2-3 (SA 1Q 0-3

, 2-0 everyone else)
Bonus Props: 1-0

Gonz312 · 11-04-12, 01:32 AM

Sun (11/4) plays so far

ORL -2
LAL -8

One update:
LAL -2.5 1Q

Gonz312 · 11-05-12, 12:33 AM

Another solid NBA day. 3-0!

Overall: 13-5

Helped to make up for all my NFL prop losses today...seemed like every one of them was within +/-10 yds of hitting. Did well with the rest of my nfl plays but for some reason way too many props seemed too good to pass up and I paid the price.

Don't have any plays for tomorrow as nothing jumps out at me so far. Will update when I do.

Update:
Mon (11/5) Play

POR/DAL u 198.5

Update:
One more play on the same game

DAL TT u 101

Gonz312 · 11-05-12, 10:47 PM

What a horrible night. I really expect OJ Mayo to come back down to earth soon and be the brick shooting guard we all know. Guy is shooting out of his mind right now and the rest of the Mavs are as well. They mentioned something about shooting 60% for like 3 straight games as a team. Oh well.

0-2 for the night....13-7 overall now.

Gonz312 · 11-06-12, 02:35 PM

Todays Plays (11/6)

OKC -2.5 1Q
CHI TT u 98

ShogunRua · 11-06-12, 02:52 PM

This is just a suggestion, but I think instead of updating your picks with the 'edit' feature, you should instead just start a new post or quote your original picks with the updated picks. If you ever start gaining some followers, you will have people claiming that you are editing your picks mid-game and you will lose credibility.

Anyways, looks like you are off to a good start.

Good luck this season.

Gonz312 · 11-06-12, 05:12 PM

Yeah...that has crossed my mind but I really don't want to give meaningless bumps to the thread just to add picks. I'm not a big fan of inflated post counts either.

I figure as long as I have my plays in before tipoff of the first set of games there should be no questions since there is a clear time stamp of when I made the edit. Anything posted after tipoff gets a new post. But yeah, if people find it a problem, I will change that.

ShogunRua · 11-06-12, 11:10 PM

Originally posted by Gonz312

Yeah...that has crossed my mind but I really don't want to give meaningless bumps to the thread just to add picks. I'm not a big fan of inflated post counts either.

I figure as long as I have my plays in before tipoff of the first set of games there should be no questions since there is a clear time stamp of when I made the edit. Anything posted after tipoff gets a new post. But yeah, if people find it a problem, I will change that.

Yeah that works.

Gonz312 · 11-06-12, 11:40 PM

1-1 on the day, was feeling really good until the Bulls caught fire in the 4th with 31 pts.

Overall: 14-8 and falling

Early plays for tomorrow. (11/7)

LAL +3.5
MEM +1
SA -1.5

also leaning Philly but not sure, don't want to play too many games (especially all road teams) after not doing too well last couple days.

1 more play update:

HOU -1 1Q

Gonz312 · 11-08-12, 12:55 AM

Downward spiral continues. 1-3 for the day. 15-11 overall

Moving on to tomorrow.

OKC -1.5

1 more play before the game starts.

OKC -1 1Q

Gonz312 · 11-08-12, 10:47 PM

1-1 on the day...I'm starting to think these late day plays are a bad idea, don't even know if I've won one yet. Didn't make a play on the late game.

16-12 overall....Not time to quit my day job unfortunately

Gonz312 · 11-09-12, 12:18 AM

Fri (11/9) plays before I head out, so many games...yet so few that jump out at me. Leaning DEN-4.5 as well but haven't put anything on it. My leans that I don't play are 2-0 so far if that means anything, probably won't play this one either as I'm trying to scale back the number of bets I make. Will probably add a total and/or a 1Q bet or two tomorrow as well.

MIL -3
SA -6

Gonz312 · 11-09-12, 09:56 PM

1-0 so far today.

Just wanted to add a bonus prop that I made a small play on before the Spurs game starts.

Parker o 7.5 assists.

Think he will go over pretty easily, made the same play last game against the Clips and came up short because they packed it in early into the 3rd, but he had 6 going into halftime last game. His assist numbers are really underrated since last season IMO. Only averages around 8, but with as much time as they sit out second halves when they are getting blown out early, or blowing the other team out...it can easily be closer to 9

Gonz312 · 11-09-12, 10:03 PM

Shit...apparently a stomach virus has hit the team according to pregame. Parker, Green, Jax, Leonard, and Bonner might not even play.

Gonz312 · 11-10-12, 12:32 AM

Solid day to right the ship a bit. 2-0 but lost my prop. My Denver lean is yet another one that looks like it will hit despite me not playing that game, oh well.

18-12 Overall
1-1 Props

Will take a look at tomorrows games later, haven't even made any CFB bets yet, but not worrying about that now...it's friday night afterall. Cheers

Gonz312 · 11-10-12, 04:21 PM

Sat (11/10) Plays

DEN -2
DET/HOU o 192

I realize the total as jumped since I made my bet late last night until now, you can still find it at 193 at a couple places, guess the line movement is positive for me if you're into that sort of thing.

Still waiting on team totals to post at a few places, so may add a couple more before gametime.

Update with a couple of TT:

HOU o 100.5
GS u 100

Gonz312 · 11-10-12, 10:24 PM

Shitty day...0-2 so far. Should of known that the quality of basketball severely drops when playing one of the worst teams to ever be put together in the Pistons.

Gonz312 · 11-11-12, 05:38 AM

1-3 for the day...really thought I was going to go 0-4 when I left for the night at the start of the 1st overtime. And although the 2nd OT cost me my under total, at least the Nuggs pulled it off to give me one on the board.

19-15 Overall and falling.

Don't have any plays for tomorrow, will probably stick with some football bets.

Gonz312 · 11-11-12, 02:37 PM

Sun (11/11) Plays...who was I thinking, I couldn't go without at least one NBA bet

OKC -3.5 1Q

qwe123 · 11-11-12, 07:40 PM

Had me sweating there when the Thunder went down big early in the 1st, but they brought it back.

Great tip, thanks

Gonz312 · 11-11-12, 08:33 PM

Haha me too, was watching football and changed it to the game after I realized it started. They were down like 3-4 with 3 minutes left but thankfully caught fire at the end.

1-0 for the day...confidence is still reeling though, hopefully next week is better than the past few days

20-15 Overall

*A little wording correction for my last post for those that care, I meant to say "what was I thinking or who was I kidding" but I don't even know at this point. Just sounded weird to me when I reread it.

Gonz312 · 11-12-12, 01:37 AM

Mon (11/12)...so far only have one play for monday

CHI -3

Update: more plays for tonight, same game

MIN +7
MIN/DAL o 191
DAL -2 1Q

Gonz312 · 11-12-12, 09:04 PM

Really thought Dallas would come out hot, Minny is scrappy enough to keep this game close though so I still feel good about the +7 even if Dallas catches fire

Looks like I'm heading for a 1-3 night, and I think I'm adding a couple of teams to avoid to my list.

Gonz312 · 11-13-12, 11:04 AM

Tue (11/13) plays

CLE/BRK u 196.5

Gonz312 · 11-14-12, 04:21 AM

continuing to crumble. 21-19 overall

Still holding strong with some degenerate like live bets and props that I somehow am managing to hit. So all is not lost personally although I really would like to get stronger with my posted plays.
These will probably be my last posted plays until monday because I am heading out to vegas thursday, and my phone connection is usually horrible out there. Trying to get a little momentum before so I can finish strong out there for the weekend.

Wed (11/14) plays

NO/HOU o 187.5
ATL +1.5

Updated play
DAL -2.5 1Q

Gonz312 · 11-15-12, 02:59 AM

2-1 for the night, maybe a little momentum can be built or not

23-20 overall

No plays yet for tomorrow, heading out tomorrow and might not get to post them.

Good luck this weekend fellas.

qwe123 · 11-15-12, 06:41 AM

Keep it up Gonz, here's to a hot streak for you

Gonz312 · 11-21-12, 10:38 AM

Back from my trip and I had a hell of a roll in vegas only to shit the bed at the tables. Kept things simple and only played 1-2 gamves a night, even managed to hit a 5 teamer on sat for a small money parlay. Took the past couple days since I got back off and am back with my picks

Wed (11/21) Plays
PHI -3.5

Couple updates:
LAL -1.5 1Q
SAC TT u 100

Gonz312 · 11-23-12, 03:35 AM

The downfall continues...come watch me crumble!

Overall 24-22

Fri (11/23) Plays: Will black friday be the day I go under .500, one of the home dogs is bound to kill me, but I'm trying not to overthink things

ATL -3.5
OKC -3.5
POR -1.5