NBA Season Thread With Matchup Analysis

[MexicanStallion]

PLAY 136: DALLAS -3 -120 RISK $120

PLAY 137: DALLAS ML/LAKERS ML PARLAY Risk $120 to win $115

January 1st
1-1 (-$20.00)

NBA Season
75-57-5 ($2415.25)

Moneylines: 12-3 ($1017.50)
Parlays: 9-4 ($990.00)
Spreads: 26-19 ($673.00)
Props: 11-6-1 ($221.00)
Totals: 1-1 ($45.00)
Halves: 13-13-2 (-$25.00)
Alt. Spreads: 2-4-1 (-$81.25)
Live: 0-2 (-$160.00)
TT: 2-5-1 (-$265.00)

[Goat Milk]

play 138: D-will OVER 16.5 points -120 (Heritage) Risk $60 for 50

Williams playing OKC where he has played great throughout his entire career. Earlier this year, I bet on this very same prop with the Nets at home and D Will dropped 30+. Westbrook is really playing aggressively on the defensive end this year and it's pretty obvious he is a much better defender than he was last year (as everyone seems to be after playing with Bryant in the olympics).

However, he is definitely gambling a lot more and that'll give D will some easy lanes imo. D will is not the kind of guy you want to gamble around. Too quick with the ball. Look for him to be a lot more assertive tonight after a poor game against the Spurs last time out. I think Will drops 25.

[Goat Milk]

PLAY 139: CLIPPERS -120 RISK $120 TO WIN $100

Clips off a loss in Denver and most assume they'll have tired legs coming into tonight but it's still early in the season and B2B doesn't mean as much. Still a tad concerned which is why it's only a small play but I like the Clips to make some adjustments tonight on the offensive end. Paul will most definitely pick him his tenacity on both ends. I think the Clips lost to GS a few weeks back but GS played very well if I remember right. GS has been playign great ball under Jackson this year and I expect that to continue throughout this season but a guy like Paul can really disrupt this entire team by himself if he plays aggressively. He's been hounding PGs lately on this win streak and teams have struggled to really get into their offensive sets quickly because of his ball pressure. If that's an issue tonight, GS will definitely struggle to move the ball and will end up in a lot of iso sets at the end of the shock clock. Griffin should be too much for Lee tonight. He's played against him a few times by now. I expect Griffin to study the tape and look for areas where he can be dominant, specifically off the dribble imo. Griffin doesn't really get too many isos in the faceup but come on you got to give him the ball against Lee who's pretty slow footed defensively. Curry is gonna be forced to shoot a lot of deep jumpers tonight. Guy is butter but he's gonna have to work for it tonight for sure, I can guarantee that. With Jack and Landry off the bench, you'll probably have a guy like Bledsoe trying to guard Jack at times. Should be an interesting matchup but Bledsoe is a lot more athletic and can definitely force Jack to play in uncomfortable spots (like the post, which he's not accustomed to). The Warriors don't really have anyone that can guard Crawford besides maybe Harrison Barnes and I'm not even sure that he can. That's what the Warriors are missing. One really good perimeter defender. Landry could be a problem for the Clipps but let's hope he just has an off game.

[JM92]

Just a warning on the fatigue factor... the clippers last night were missing a lot of easy jumpers. sometimes its just that way, but most of them it means tired legs. specially for such a good shooting team.

[Goat Milk]

Just a warning on the fatigue factor... the clippers last night were missing a lot of easy jumpers. sometimes its just that way, but most of them it means tired legs. specially for such a good shooting team.

good observation. there's been ice baths and a good amount of rest though in between. clippers will be ready. fatigue won't be an issue tonight. i've always thougth denver is the best home court in the nba so i don't look at it closely when teams lose there.

[davopnz]

do you like the celts tonight?

[JM92]

good observation. there's been ice baths and a good amount of rest though in between. clippers will be ready. fatigue won't be an issue tonight. i've always thougth denver is the best home court in the nba so i don't look at it closely when teams lose there.

its just that the only quarter where you could say the clippers played badly was the last one. other than that I would say the nuggets actually got somewhat lucky with the shots missed and the 50/50s going their way sometimes. I also believe the clippers win tonight though. Bledsoe will smother jack and Landry wont have a game like he did the first time around.

[Goat Milk]

do you like the celts tonight?

tough call. i really don't know. i'm not gonna bet on boston anymore til after the all-star break when I know they're actually trying.

[Goat Milk]

PLAY 140: CLIPPERS -4 -115 2ND HALF. RISK $115 FOR 1

Man Curry is straight butter tonight even from 30 feet out. One of the best shooters in the game. With him shooting like this Paul is gonna half to pick him up at halfcourt at least. I expect him to make the adjustment. Basketball IQ. This is what I would do if I were playing and I think Paul will somewhat disrupt him in the 2nd half. GS is getting all their looks off Curry thus far. Ball movement has been good but they have been sloppy with the ball. Expect some more fast break points from the Clippers in the 2nd half and for Paul to put his imprint on this 2nd half. Maybe close to double digit dimes in the 2nd half.

[MexicanStallion]

play 138: D-will OVER 16.5 points -120 (Heritage) Risk $60 for 50

PLAY 139: CLIPPERS -120 RISK $120 TO WIN $100

PLAY 140: CLIPPERS -4 -115 2ND HALF. RISK $115 FOR 1

January 2nd
1-2 (-$185.00)

NBA Season
76-59-5 ($2230.25)

Parlays: 9-4 ($990.00)
Moneylines: 12-4 ($897.50)
Spreads: 26-19 ($673.00)
Props: 12-6-1 ($271.00)
Totals: 1-1 ($45.00)
Alt. Spreads: 2-4-1 (-$81.25)
Halves: 13-14-2 (-$140.00)
Live: 0-2 (-$160.00)
TT: 2-5-1 (-$265.00)

[PAULYPOKER]

Goat got rusty from taking a rest

[Goat Milk]

PLAY 141: LAKERS +5 -115 RISK $115 TO WIN $100

Lakers have struggled guarding the pick and roll this year and their fast break d has been bad as well but this is a home game so the line doesn't make sense to me. Clipps were awful last night. CP3 will have a solid game tonight imo but you're definitely going to see Artest guard CP3 at times in this game and Bryant perhaps in critical situtations in the 4th quarter. Paul will be doing a lot of running on the defensive end, chasing Nash around and you don't want to gamble like he does when you guard a player like Nash because you're not gonna steal the ball from him more than once probably.

Bryant will drop 35 tonight. Clipps are still not as good as they will be when they get Hill and Billups back, two guys that can guard Bryant better than anyone on the team right now. Gasol has always struggled guarding face-up PFs like Griffin so that could be a problem as well.

[bjb7223]

what happened to goat?

[strybie]

what happened to goat?

good question ...

[Goat Milk]

PLAY 142: LAKERS -5 -110 RISK $110 TO WIN $100

PLAY 143: LAKERS ML -200 Risk $400 to win $200

[davopnz]

why lakers? denver smoked them last time, lakers still look mud

[PAULYPOKER]

Focus Goat FOCUS!

[Goat Milk]

why lakers? denver smoked them last time, lakers still look mud

Last game was in Denver. Lakers were playing on a B2B. Denver is the hardest place to play in the NBA imo. Lakers are starting to realize the severity of their situation. They are getting near desperation mode. Nash is meshing well now with Bryant you can see. I don't want to get into the matchups but I think Denver will struggle to guard Nash and Gasol in this game.

[ShogunRua]

revenge game, denver on a 3 in 4 playing on the road. I like the play

[davopnz]

i just wasn't impressed with what i saw against the clips...until late in the game + its as square as can be. do you like the over?(square as well)

like the suns to beat the overrated mud grizzlies.

[vinny808]

Ty Lawson burned them last time which is the reason why the Lakers lost also. He is injured and is averaging 20 minutes per game recently.

[757sFinest]

Square this, square that. You guys crack me up. I forget sometimes that posters on SBR are sharp as a fuggin razor. Always makes for good laughs though. GL to all.

[Goat Milk]

i just wasn't impressed with what i saw against the clips...until late in the game + its as square as can be. do you like the over?(square as well)

like the suns to beat the overrated mud grizzlies.

not sure about the over. there's no such thing as a square play. there's only sharp players and square players. gl.

[davopnz]

any thoughts on phoenix?

[Goat Milk]

Not sure. Grizz off a bad loss and the type of game where Rudy Gay can pretty much impose his will on Dudley or anyone else in the lineup after letting his team down yet again the previous game. If you're Gentry you got to start Scola here as Ranoldph has exposed Morris down low previously. With that being said, I'm not sure what Gentry would do and I think if he were to start scola that the Suns can cover and I think it'll be a close game. However, I'm not really sure man and I don't want to give you advice on something I'm not sure about which results in you losing. I don't like when people follow my advice and then lose. Not a good feeling.

[davopnz]

lakers still mud, might be time to blacklist them

[goldengreek]

Here come the BURIAL

FADE this loser the rest of the season

[MexicanStallion]

PLAY 141: LAKERS +5 -115 RISK $115 TO WIN $100

January 4th
0-0-1 (-$00.00)

NBA Season
76-59-6 ($2230.25)

Parlays: 9-4 ($990.00)
Moneylines: 12-4 ($897.50)
Spreads: 25-19-1 ($673.00)
Props: 12-6-1 ($271.00)
Totals: 1-1 ($45.00)
Alt. Spreads: 2-4-1 (-$81.25)
Halves: 13-14-2 (-$140.00)
Live: 0-2 (-$160.00)
TT: 2-5-1 (-$265.00)

[MexicanStallion]

PLAY 142: LAKERS -5 -110 RISK $110 TO WIN $100

PLAY 143: LAKERS ML -200 Risk $400 to win $200

January 6th
0-2 (-$510.00)

NBA Season
76-61-6 ($1720.25)

Parlays: 9-4 ($990.00)
Spreads: 25-20-1 ($563.00)
Moneylines: 12-5 ($497.50)
Props: 12-6-1 ($271.00)
Totals: 1-1 ($45.00)
Alt. Spreads: 2-4-1 (-$81.25)
Halves: 13-14-2 (-$140.00)
Live: 0-2 (-$160.00)
TT: 2-5-1 (-$265.00)

*2013 2-5-1 (-$715.00)*

[Goat Milk]

first big play of the season.

Play 144: Lakers +7 -110 risk $770 to win $700

play 145: Lakers ml +265 risk $100 to win $265

got to go work I'll write something later for this play. I know Gasol and Howard are out.

[daimoshokage]

Here come the BURIAL

FADE this loser the rest of the season

January 6th
0-2 (-$510.00)

[cboogie]

is goat a laker fan? i always see him take them.

[JR007]

hey, Mexi, sure you are giving your plays to goat ???

[goldengreek]

is goat a laker fan? i always see him take them.

He takes the same teams all the time:

Miami
Lakers
Boston
Denver

[The Architect]

He takes the same teams all the time:

Miami
Lakers
Boston
Denver

There's literally nothing wrong with doing this..

Goat, as for your lakers bet...You got a bad number dude, its 8.5 now. But i think the Lakers SHOULD cover here...but honestly, this team is so disjointed its really hard to back them at this point until some promise is shown..They completely crapped out against denver the other night, they completely lost all rhythm when Nash was out of the game, and their "shooters" (i.e. meeks, artest, jamison) are not even close to being reliable and consistent from outside. Really tough to back them here, I might make a small wager on the total. BOL to you.