Sando's All Sports (NBA, AFL, NRL)

[davopnz]

i like scotland -18.5, samoa +9.5, either by 7 and under wales/rsa,


samoa +21.5, south africa +7.5, all blacks win pays like $1.73 in a multi, very good if you ask me

[sando]

NBA Saturday

Philli @ Cleveland
1.5* Cav's -4 1st Half (-110/$1.91 Centrebet)
1* Cav's -2.5 1st Quarter (-107/$1.93 Pinnacle)

[sando]

Hopefully you guys have been checking into my Rugby League World Cup thread. Destroyed last nights games 3-0 for +4.6 units...

[OZnBa Fan]

Hopefully you guys have been checking into my Rugby League World Cup thread. Destroyed last nights games 3-0 for +4.6 units...

Didnt even know you had posted plays

[sando]

Didnt even know you had posted plays

Sorry I should have been posting them in here as well. Too much going on last night with the Rugby Union Internationals, the Netball Fast5 tournament and the World Cup, I forgot.

[sando]

NBA Saturday

Philli @ Cleveland
1.5* Cav's -4 1st Half (-110/$1.91 Centrebet)
1* Cav's -2.5 1st Quarter (-107/$1.93 Pinnacle)

GS @ Memphis
1.5* Griz -2.5 (-109/$1.91 Pinnacle)

Portland @ Sacramento
1.5* Portland m/l (+111/$2.11 Pinnacle)
*Was expecting a massive improvement from the Kings this season. The Pacific is by far my strongest division, I follow all 5 teams very closely. I thought this was the year Demarcus would grow up and morph into Shaq V 2.0, I though landing Mbah a Moute was a great acquisiton for a defensively challenged team. I'm a massive Thomas fan, the kid is one of the NBA's best kept secrets, I loved the Mclemore draft pick, though Jimmer would get some minutes and start nailing three's, etc, etc, blah, blaj, blah. Kings still suck, Demarcus attitude appears worse than ever, in fact I would go as far as to say that he is a cancer and the team will never have a winning culture with his as their franchise guy. Not expecting much to change in 24 hours, Portland sweeps the home and home today. Batum starting to come alive (and he is the key to Portland's success) and Lillard just keeps balling and proving the doubters wrong. LMA shouldn't have much trouble with Patterson and Thompson, only concertain is Cousins, who can certainly do whatever the hell he wants with Robin Lopez guarding him, but that's only match up advantage for Kings.

[the tross]

You got a great feel for the world cup sando . I haven't tailed much but really appreciate your posted plays.

[sando]

Pacers @ Nets
1* Nets 1st Half m/l (+103, $2.03 Pinnacle)
1* Over 187.5 (-105/$1.95 Pinnacle)

Orlando @ Atlanta
1* Magic 1st Half +3.5 (-106, $1.94 Pinnacle)
0.5* Magic 1st Half m/l (+173, $2.73 Pinnacle)
*Hawks 1st game home from an extended road trip (3+ games) and the Magic are an excellent 1st Half team (ranked #2 1st H margin +5.8). Of course all stats/trends this early in the season have far less meaning as the sample size is so small, but the Magic have improved drastically so far this season after being a terrible 1st Half team last season (both in 1st H ppg and average margin)

[selte]

Thank you so much for your work Sando! I know that you last season started posting something like "no more plays", or "final card", when you though you had posted all of your pre-game bets. Is it possible that you could start doing the same this season? In european-time your bets are posted rather late usually, and since I try to follow all of your bets that makes me either stay up very late, or wake up in the middle of the night to tail you : )

[kneighfe]

Sando, what do you think about the Belfort vs Henderson match? I'm actually leaning on Henderson as I think he's got the mentality and the better chin to withstand someone like Belfort. Odds are also too high on Henderson which is another reason I'd like to take him. What are your thoughts on this?

Thanks in advance.

[micase]

Sorry for another cross post, here are some player performance middles if anyone is interested, no one seems to come into the middling thread. Thanks for the plays today Sando, I like the Portland one especially. I was hoping for much better things from Sacramento this year but it appears to be same old same old.

Mike Conley Points

U20.5 $1.87 Sportsbet
O17.5 $1.83 Bet365

Nowitzki points

U23.5 $1.90 TAB
O20.5 $1.95 Centrebet

Monta Ellis Points
U23.5 $1.87 Sportsbet
O20.5 $1.90 TAB

Roy Hibbert Rebounds
U10.5 $1.90 TAB
O9.5 $1.87 Sportsbet

All are decent hit at 10%+ plays.

[MrXYZ]

Any thoughts on the Blazers/Kings total? Leaning over 198.5. Expecting some garbage time 3s from scrubs like Outlaw.

[sando]

Sando, what do you think about the Belfort vs Henderson match? I'm actually leaning on Henderson as I think he's got the mentality and the better chin to withstand someone like Belfort. Odds are also too high on Henderson which is another reason I'd like to take him. What are your thoughts on this?

Thanks in advance.

Value is definitely with Henderson, however having said that I firmly believe Vitor will win the fight (within the distance of course).

No MMA plays from me today.

Thank you so much for your work Sando! I know that you last season started posting something like "no more plays", or "final card", when you though you had posted all of your pre-game bets. Is it possible that you could start doing the same this season? In european-time your bets are posted rather late usually, and since I try to follow all of your bets that makes me either stay up very late, or wake up in the middle of the night to tail you : )

Sure I will do that. (You may miss the occasional HT play, but that will be all you'll miss).



Great Start. Hit all 3 1st Half bets and the 1st Quarter Cav's bet. Hopefully a big day...?

[OZnBa Fan]

Value is definitely with Henderson, however having said that I firmly believe Vitor will win the fight (within the distance of course).

No MMA plays from me today.



Sure I will do that. (You may miss the occasional HT play, but that will be all you'll miss).



Great Start. Hit all 3 1st Half bets and the 1st Quarter Cav's bet. Hopefully a big day...?

Great start pal

[sando]

NBA 2nd Half Play

Miami -9 2nd Half (-110 Pinnacle)

Boston can't maintain this level, and the Heat had a rather average 1st Half. Look for a big lift in the 2nd Half defensively and for the Heat to pull away in the 3rd Q.

[kneighfe]

1u?

[sando]

Any thoughts on the Blazers/Kings total? Leaning over 198.5. Expecting some garbage time 3s from scrubs like Outlaw.

I was on that play exact yesterday mate for 1.5x and was very disappointed with the 2nd Half. Not sure today, think the 1st half over might be a slightly stronger play...

[sando]

1u?

Oh yeah for 1 unit sorry guys...

NBA 2nd Half Play

Miami -9 2nd Half (-110 Pinnacle)

Boston can't maintain this level, and the Heat had a rather average 1st Half. Look for a big lift in the 2nd Half defensively and for the Heat to pull away in the 3rd Q.

[kneighfe]

Oh yeah for 1 unit sorry guys...

Thanks, sando.

[sando]

NBA 2nd Half Play

1* Clippers @ Rockets Over 105 2nd Half (-105 Pinnacle)

[MrXYZ]

I was on that play exact yesterday mate for 1.5x and was very disappointed with the 2nd Half. Not sure today, think the 1st half over might be a slightly stronger play...

Thanks Sando. I went for the1st half over 99.5 for 1 unit.

[bmoney76]

dwyane wade with the dumbest play of the young nba season. Hasn't he ever played 21? You gotta hit the rim!

[iWin]

What's the record for today?

[sando]

Wow! 1st man ever to KO a legend of the sport. Feel bad for Hendo, career probably over now...

[unitedlad]

Bravo Sando on a truly impressive night of picks. I'm not quite sure if people realise you are one of the very few guys on this forum who is a long-term success at betting.

You tore em' up tonight, seriously well done. Those first half plays were genius.

[rohan22no]

Sexy call and analysis on trail blazers Sando...loving it. Thanks. Never thought I'd be so interested in NBA!

[sando]

Big Play Alert!

I will give you guys a half hour head start before I post in my World Cup thread and on twitter. The line will move - Fact. I think Centrebet and Luxbet follow me on Twitter? and I suspect some Aus books check my thread as well (as many line moves suspiciously happened not long after I posted plays during the NRL season).

10 minutes...

[seanyt07]

What's your twitter handle?

[sando]

This is the match I have been eagerly awaiting ever since seeing Samoa in action against the Kiwi's in their first hit out.


Samoa @ France


4* Samoa -12.5 (-105/$1.95 Centrebet/Sportingbet)
* -14 available for $1.90 at Sportsbet/IAS, lines not released yet by Bet365, Pinny or 5D. This play is good up to -14 for 4 units. -14 to -16 I would play for 2 - 2.5 units. Do not take this play over -16 for anything more than 1 unit. Predicted closing line for this match is Samoa -16


**For those that aren't familiar with my methods, this is a particularly large play for me. My unit range is 1-5 however I have never posted a 5 unit play in 18 months at SBR and have probably posted less than a dozen 4 unit plays. This is also the biggest play I have posted in this World Cup so far.


***There are two matches tonight. This is a play for tomorrow - the last preliminary match of the tournament before the finals begin.


****Seeing as it is such a large play, I will try and find the time to add some analysis.

[bartlomiej1978]

Bloody hell Sando, you were right!!!! Now bet 365 has line Samoa -12, 10 mins ago was only -10!!!!!!!!!1

[Donkey]

Yeah, just noticed that as well. Had gotten -10 (effectively -10.5 since tie included) at 1.90 earlier in the day. Let's get it

Also noticed on sportsbet that cook islands just moved from 2.17 +2.5 to 1.97 pick 'em.

[RedRightHand]

EDIT: Appears my browser had not refreshed sorry.........

[Flatbed24]

Hey Sando,

This is my first post on SBR, just wanted to say thanks for sharing, you’re really tearing it.

And yeah, I was watching too and line shifted on bet365 from -10 to -12 right after you posted. That says it all about your World Cup capping!

Once again, thanks and congrats for a cracking good job.

[aussieH]

Tab limited me to a 4 dollar bet. How weak are these betting organisations. They make millions and limit their exposure to a potential 4 dollar loss

[Dr.Gonzo]

The line will move - Fact. I think Centrebet and Luxbet follow me on Twitter? and I suspect some Aus books check my thread as well (as many line moves suspiciously happened not long after I posted plays during the NRL season).

10 minutes...

I think it is more a case of you betting into attractive lines and having a few people tail you, that might be enough to make a trader check the market and decide to readjust.

I've been personally responsible for moving a lot of lines.