my brother had roosters 1-8 first half/13+ full time @ 7.50. when i think about it, thats not a bad play in roosters games
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BOOOMMM Sando
Never in doubt , cheers for the confident playComment -
Those on Kennedy for the Coleman should be happy.
Shuey has come out and said: ''We couldn't give him much of a crack on Saturday night, but hopefully in the next two weeks he can have a couple of big games and it would be a great individual accolade for him to look back on in a pretty disappointing year as a team,'' Shuey said.
''I don't know if it would actually cross my mind out there in the heat of the moment (to look more to Kennedy than any other forward), but I would love to see him walk off the ground with five or six next to his name.''
Translation: "we're looking for him, but I'm not allowed to say that"
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Another up and down w/e. NRL keeps rolling week after week, however AFL is now officially ice cold after the 2nd losing week in a row. Was so frustrated by the Richmond/Carlton game didn't bother posting my other plays in MMA and Rugby. Had a nice dog play on Chael Sonnen however lost big on roid-raging Overeem. Had my biggest Rugby play of the year on the Springbok's (v Pumas). The way SA played there is no doubt they can beat the AB's this year, was positively scary. Hoping to start getting stuck into ITM cup this week or next, but not 100% committed yet either. Actually considering taking a break to be fresh for the NBA season. My goal is to beat all NBA handicapper's this season with a target of 80+ units. There has been an unprecedented level of player movement during the off season, hence a ton of work to do pre-season. Also going to run a separate total's system this NBA season, based on my high over's/low under's theory.
NRL
Round 23 4-1 +4.96 units
(The only losing play being the JWH over 130.5, when he had 85 by HT and sat the entire 2nd half, so a bit unlucky there)
Season +31.85 Units
AFL
Round 21 2-8 -7.37 units
Season +4.61 unitsComment -
Sando I'm hoping ya can help me out here, quick question luxbet and sportsbet have both put restrictions on my account how do I avoid this and why is this happening?Comment -
You've caught the traders attention. Some books hate small winners, they don't think it's worth the hassle to deal with. Sportsbet is horrible in regards to this.
Winning, betting steam, beating the closing line, betting into smaller hold markets.
You can't avoid it, you can extend the life of an account by not doing things that will get you limited but you'll eventually get limited.
My advice to you buy a cheap smartphone, with a new sim, and sign up under a relatives name (obviously they must know what's going on because they'll need to verify the account) and bet on the net via your phone. If you're betting enough get a really cheap laptop/tablet as well but you must use a different IP. You must not log into this account from anything connected to your previous limited account: computer, IP address, phone, tablet, ect.
EDIT: Another good way to keep recreational accounts alive is to try and keep the money you win from them at a minimum. If you ever get an opportunity to make a +EV or neutral EV arb take the rough selection with the recreational book and hope it loses. Works good in the short term to prevent yourself from withdrawing. Much preferable to do with a larger market.
Also should have mentioned withdrawing, that's what books hate the most. Only make withdrawals when necessary.Last edited by Dr.Gonzo; 08-20-13, 01:06 AM.Comment -
With sportsbet I just got an account using a relatives name etc. but I got an email from luxbet this morning saying that I have been restricted from sport multis, bonus bets etc. I just don't get why they do this such a oainComment -
I'm not Sando, but I can answer this as it has happened to plenty of us.
Its happening because you're either winning too much (unlikely), chasing steam or playing off numbers. It isn't usually about the fact you are on a heater (unless its been a heater going for a long time now!), but you how you win.
There is nothing you can do. If you like sportsbet, move to iasbet.com (same lines as sportsbet) and do not to chase any steam or play too many off numbers. What are you limited to? You might also want to try betting half at sportsbet and half at iasbet... I found I could get $60 bets down at each site without much drama, but any thing over (or a re-tap) involves waiting for authorization, which often doesn't go through.
Nothing you can really do at luxbet I dont think. They were initially just a racing book... and being a racing bookie has to be the easiest job in the world. It is very hard to lose! They are new to sports and cut off winners very quickly.
edit: i may stand corrected about sportsbet from what gonzo says. I didn't realize they cut small winners. i figured it was the way i bet more than anything.
edit 2: You are restricted from multi's??? wtf? lol.Comment -
It's pretty easy to win at a racing book depending on what they offer.
Open up an account with a book that offers best tote on country racing, and only bet country racing, bet at the death and only on the right horses (not short favs you want variation in the divs).
If you're a good horse capper they'll hate it worse than anything
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Answered your own question, that's why you got limited.
Give more action on conventional markets as well in the future.
They banned you from multis because they don't want you to find a play that you like and parlay it with ten other plays to avoid being limited. You can also hide which play you really like in a parlay.
Basically they identified you as an unprofitable customer, ie. not a moron.Comment -
Yep, what Gonzo said. Don't withdraw unless you have to and try to bet a variety of markets.
As Gonzo said, did you think you could EXCLUSIVELY bet into soft props and off numbers at a book and not run into trouble? You've said the number is better compared to other books (better lines don't happen at luxbet by accident. They happen because you've chased steam and the lazy pricks at luxbet have dropped the ball when the rest of the market has moved)
Prop markets by definition are generally soft and you can understand not wanting action someone who is exclusively playing them. Even though I don't get as good a line as at pinny, I try to throw a lot of my NFL and MLB plays into the Aussie books I play props at.Comment -
Yer well I do take a bit of money off them from afl prop bets which I have started to notice that they only accept partial $$ and then I have to go back and put more money on and by then the line would have changed. I just put a $1 sport multi on and they accepted it. I hope they they haven't banned me from prop bets cause i do quiet well off themComment -
That's exactly what I'm saying.
The books will see you can beat their soft markets and stop letting you play. The trader has already recognized that you can win at props and limited you. Get used to any bet over $5 (it was $1 at centrebet for me for a while, lol!) being sent for authorization.... not fun.Comment -
Got a nice play for tommorow morning in the English championship
Wigan vs Doncaster
Wigan -1
No time for a big write up but ill keep this short and sweet, here we have a side in Wigan who have come down from the premier league playing a side who has come from league 1. Quality should prevail here as Wigan have still retained a fair few of the players from last season in the premier league
Wigan coming off a disappointing loss last start away from home Doncaster coming off a surprise win and wigan are back on there home deck. Takin them -1 means that if they only win by 1 it's a push but I have this game at 3-1Comment -
Damn I'm sick of hearing these stories of these pussy ass books, shit is so lame. Lol "only make a withdrawal when you really really need it" and "keep your withdrawals small", shit shouldn't be that way. they certainly got 0 problem taking a big deposit, come time you want some back and all the headache begins. These guys fall asleep at the wheel, not our fault, be on the ball and you wouldn't have this problem.(I'm referring.to moving slow) the worst part is whenever these guys limit, people aren't even betting huge #s. I mean even $20 guys are being cut off, such a joke. I've even heard guys bfore say "do a parlay/multi every now and then" for what?? Basically throw away money and lose on purpose just to throw off my betting pattern?? Umm no thanks. Some of these books need to grow a friggin pair and realize just maybe once every 5000 deposits they take , somebody's gonna beat them! Big deal, Jesus... This shit is whyeverybody should just play at Pinny. Maybe tffer what you're looking for so I understand, but man this shit just pisses me off. This shit is why, after time, I've learned to keep my deposits/bets strictly at the "bigger" books that can handle a bit of action.
Also, been meaning to ask you guys, how come none of u ever mention playing at matchbook? Do they not accept Australian currency?Comment -
I got limited while hedging on the Coleman. Just hopped in the car to the local tote and made a cash bet.
Probably also a good tactic to place cash bets if you are going big or placing a series of betsComment -
Another big NRL line this weekend. Storm -26.5 against Parra.Comment -
According to Tom Waterhouse, yes.
I'm really liking Geelong this week. I know they are only 1.50 but if Sydney beat Geelong they still have to beat Hawthorn the week after to finish in the top two, the Dockers will beat both port and saints in the coming weeks and with one good win will overtake Sydney regardless. I just feel the equation is that much simpler for the cats and therefor will play their guts out to win this game.
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I work for a bookie so i'll explain to you the reasons why u most likely received restrictions: you are betting on small market ( props especially), trying to snipe top of the market or best line as they were too slow to adjust, you will only bet on specific markets. It's not that easy to open using someone's account and continue betting for a long time, we have records of IP, similar betting patterns, address, surname and you'll be caught and banned in no time. If you are taking a terrible price or line, they'd let you on as its available elsewhere otherwise your bet will be rejected or partialed. I remember we had a punter who was head of trader at 365. He would bet every race and took us to the cleaners and got sacked. And ps they ban winners as well unless they can see that you are just chasing which they'd love to keep because you'll eventually give that all back.Comment -
They are running a business so they'd do whatever to profit as well as minimise management. They'd limit you in order for you to buzz off and bet elsewhere. That's their plan, and eventually close off your account. You can even be down overall with them but if you are picking off better prices or line, they will limit you.Comment -
I feel sick when I walk into a tab. If you look around, there are very few NON broken person in there. Occasionally, I have to duck in to catch a race if one of horses I have a share in (tiny share) is running. The place stinks of cigarettes and alcohol and I'm scared of a mass murder after a bad result
I assume you got on Kennedy to hedge with Roughie? Or Cameron?Comment -
thot i'd recycle this post from a while bak (page 147, post#5114)...in response to the Vinnie's asking for feedback on matchbook (altho' i'm not Austalian)...
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unfortunately, among sportsbooks...only pinny has this educated "sharp bettors keep our lines sharp (thus balanced, thus profitable)" attitude...
exchanges also don't give a fook if u win or lose, cuz it's player v. player...but i just can't "get the hang" of laying...and the gymnastics involved in taking into account beforehand commissions you may pay later...Betfair's starter-rate of 5% commission on winnings sucks most of the "player v player" value out of the line...Betdaq has a flat 3% commission so is better value generally on the same play IF you can get it...they have a great business model vs. Betfair but haven't really seemed to catch on, so they lack volume and variety vs BF...all Betfair enthusiasts should at least have Daq and use it to the extent that they can before "topping up" with BF to reduce commissions (Daq has free commissions for the first month BTW)
let me make a big shoutout here for, by far my favorite exchange...Matchbook...the exchange that plays like a book (ie. you want to offset a play...just bak the other side...no diddling around with the ultimately-unnecessary confusions related to laying)...Matchy is the only thing i've found that consistently beats (after-the commissions are accounted for--easily in this case) Pinny and Dimey...takes only a short while to get used to...BUT for plain vanilla plays only (no multis, props of any kind...everything that has "two simple sides" thus no need for laying) but prices are absolutely bargain basement (must be what other punters actually want)...only problem is not enough use it yet so you are "limited" by lack of volume...but there's no technical limit on any position u may want as long as there's enough money willing to take the other side...if you don't have Matchy, you don't know what you're missing in line-shopping bargains
like you, Sando, i am a multi-book skrill-backstopped line shopper...and tho i have many books...80% of my plays get done at Matchy, Pinny, Dimey, Mary (marathon)...and Betsy (bet365--used exclusively for in-game defensive hedge-outs)...but EVERY book you have ready gets used at least once a week and "comes thru" for you when u least expect it...ideal is to have a whole stable of books viewable at the same time on the same odds-hub (i find SBR's free one works just fine for the 99% of plain-vanilla plays i'm shopping for)...and have them all Skrill-able to zip funds around from book to book as needed using the Skrill-pipelineLast edited by fitguy67; 08-20-13, 07:16 PM.Comment -
Looks like betdaq is unavailable in Australia...typical.Comment -
Been meaning to join Matchbook for ages, anyone else here used it much? And been able to deposit and withdraw with no issues?Comment -
if u use skrill matchbook is lightning-fast for withdrawals...same as pinny, bet365, ladbrokes in that regard...hours not daysComment -
I use Matchbook, great book, no problems with withdrawals or deposits. I will vouch for them.
It's only a recent thing. I had a Betdaq account for years. Horrible liquidity with everything other than football, however the one good thing going for it (for Australians) was live trading, unlike Betfair where you have to ring up wasting 30-60 seconds and usually killing off whatever play you were trying to snipe by the time you get your money down. Approximately 6-9 months ago they just closed my account with no explanation other than "no longer available to Australian's". Luckily I had no funds in it so didn't have to worry about that.
My new and current favourite book is BetVictor. I have been raping them for nearly 6 weeks now with live trading and they still continue to take my bets without dramas no matter how obscure. For example I have been live betting a lot on the Euro Under 18 women basketball championship's - it doesn't really get much more random/obscure than that. Of course I don't know a thing about U18 women's basketball, I couldn't name 1 single player. However I do know that Belarus is really really bad and I have been fading them every game, every half and every quarter against all the teams they have played so far and made over $700 purely from this U18 women's tournament, and I made a rather large withdrawal on the w/e and they shipped it to moneybookers (Skrill) couple of hours. Belarus is playing again tonight against England for anyone who is interested. I see no reason why the trend shouldn't continue (although I should point out that England is probably the second or third worst team in the tournament). The line should be rather small and I would think the Pommie girls should cover it.
Also I should point out that do so many live markets 24/7 that they appear to make mistakes constantly and yet always pay out regardless. Two examples from the w/e just gone by...
A. At 3/4 time in the North Melbourne v Essendon match last Saturday, Bet Victor offered a market with North Melbourne at $1.53 to win the 4th quarter (Essendon $2.60ish ?) and another that had Essendon -3.5 and North Melbourne +3.5 for the 4th quarter. Clearly it was the wrong way around, considering the m/l they had set yet I played North Melbourne +3.5, it won and they paid it.
B. In the Danial Geale v Darren Barker fight on the w/e, most books were convinced it would be an "over" fight i.e go to a decision, which makes perfect sense as if you follow Geale you would know his style of fighting always leads to decisions these days. For example Sportingbet had Over 9.5 rounds @ $1.18 (12 round fight) and yet Bet Victor had Over 10.5 rounds @ $4.00 (Under at around $1.22ish ?) clearly a mistake. The only thing I could think of is that BetVictor is a Brittish book and Barker is a Brittish fighter who is renowned as a power puncher/KO artist - but surely the Poms were not pounding the Under 10.5 at such horrible odds? Anyway I pounded the over 10.5, the fight went to a decision (as it was always going to do) and I waited patiently with fingers crossed to see if they would actually pay out, and once again they did - no worries. I have already taken advantage of at least half a dozen occasions in the 6-7 weeks I have been a member (usually in live betting) when BetVictor has stuffed up and yet they have paid out everytime I have won.Last edited by sando; 08-20-13, 11:23 PM.Comment -
Good to know Sando, my experience with books so far setting off lines has been that the best has been cancelled. May have to take a look at betvictor. Any idea what offerings they have for college basketball as that is my game of choiceComment -
I had an account there for years. It was closed. They were new when I joined and the liquidity was poor. You'd assume it is better now, but apart from the commission (which can be a huge deal) I didn't see any advantage of playing there ahead of betfair. The main advantages over betfair came from the lack of regulation - they could offer live betting on sport (so we can actually trade on tennis!) and lay UK horses. As said, the liquidity was so poor it just wasn't worth it.
I've read a few different things about why betdaq are out of australia, so it doesn't matter anyway.
a. You'll probably recall the big drama a few years back with NRL spot fixing fixing scandal. Some media outlets signed up to betdaq and wrote a piece on betting on NRL without the bookie being a licensed partner of the NRL (or AFL etc). Betdaq were scared of the legal problems.
I didn't really understand the decision if that was the basis, considering basically every other Euro book is open to Aussies and they aren't licensed.
b. Ladbrokes took over. They are looking to get an Aussie license for either themselves or betdaq and don't want to cause any problems for that application by offering illegal gambling here;
c. Ladbrokes took over. They made a purely financial decision as a publicly listed company that it isn't worth their risk getting in trouble with Aussie laws for the Aussie punters that they do get.Comment
