Sky's Random NBA Play Of The Day

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  • skyscrapers
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 05-02-11
    • 6168

    #1
    Sky's Random NBA Play Of The Day
    This will be an experiment that I would like to attempt beginning this NBA season.
    Once again this is only an experiment so we may end up making a bit of money of lose a ton...I simply don't know.

    Everybody who decides to lay a bet on a certain play has their own opinion to justify their play. Fair enough.
    Yet there's always going to be someone who would disagree and will have their take on the opposite play.
    So far we agree that there will be no consensus on handicapping...that's just human nature.
    We have people who spend hours and hours capping games but ends up in the red at the end
    while some of us just follows blindly without much knowledge but comes out in the black.
    Is there really a true and quantifiable advantage to capping?
    Some of us use the knowledge to fade the public while others will flock to put money on the favorite.

    In essence, sports betting is gambling. One will never know the end result regardless of the amount of knowledge.
    Guys in here always says it's better to flip a coin, draw a card, roll a dice or even let their dog decide the
    plays to have a better chance at winning than to follow so and so handicapper. Is that a fact or fallacy?
    Because of that, I am going to completely remove the human aspect of handicapping.

    Simply put, through the use of a programmed random number generator: the game, the type of bet and the unit sizes will be completely randomly selected without any sort of handicapping, information, knowledge or bias. It will be completely unpredictable and random.

    Details on next post...
  • crackerjack
    SBR MVP
    • 08-01-06
    • 3366

    #2
    System sounds very promising...blindly following.
    Comment
    • skyscrapers
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 05-02-11
      • 6168

      #3
      I'm going to use the NBA pre-season schedule on Oct. 24 as an example.

      STEP 1
      Total 7 games on the slate.
      I'm going to program the random number generator (RNG) so that the highest number (T) will be lesser than or equal to 7.
      I'm going to run the RNG until I get a same number to come out five times.
      That number will correspond to the game we will choose to make a bet on.
      That will be determined alphabetically in ascending (A to Z) fashion for the home team city for that day.
      Therefore (1) = Brooklyn Nets
      (7) = Oklahoma City Thunder

      Let's say (4) is ultimately the number that is randomly selected which means we'll make a play on the Miami Heat game.

      STEP 2
      Since there are only 4 principal ways to make a play...road team points, home team points, over & under
      we'll adjust (T) to be lesser than or equal to 4 for the 4 possible outcomes.
      Again I'm going to run the RNG until I get a same number to come out five times.
      (1) will always be a play on the road team points
      (2) home team points
      (3) total over
      (4) total under

      Let's say (2) is the number that is selected by the RNG which mean we'll make a play on the Miami Heat points

      STEP 3
      We'll determine the unit size with 4 possible outcomes.
      Again I'm going to run the RNG until I get a same number to come out five times.
      (1) 1 unit
      (2) 2 units
      (3) 3 units
      (4) 4 units

      Let's say (3) comes out so therefore we'll lay 3 units on the Miami Heat to cover the point spread against the
      Washington Wizards for our Random Play Of The Day.

      Once the play has been determined, the only human decision-making is to see if we're going to lock in the play ASAP or
      wait until the last minute to try to get a better line or better odds.

      Simple...now let see where it'll take us beginning Oct. 30...GL
      Comment
      • skyscrapers
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 05-02-11
        • 6168

        #4
        Originally posted by crackerjack
        System sounds very promising...blindly following.
        Not exactly a system but somewhat of an experiment that I'm very curious to see the outcome of.
        Essentially will randomization outbet a knowledgeable capper??
        Any input or feedback are welcome
        Comment
        • crackerjack
          SBR MVP
          • 08-01-06
          • 3366

          #5
          Originally posted by skyscrapers
          Not exactly a system but somewhat of an experiment that I'm very curious to see the outcome of.
          Essentially will randomization outbet a knowledgeable capper??
          Any input or feedback are welcome
          It was sarcasm... I am interested to see how you do. Theoretically you should win half your bets.
          Comment
          • SiMON2g
            SBR MVP
            • 10-01-10
            • 1157

            #6
            Will follow, good luck.
            Comment
            • skyscrapers
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 05-02-11
              • 6168

              #7
              Alright, let's get this experiment started!!!

              Oct. 30 Tue

              3* BOS +6.5 [-105]
              Comment
              • skyscrapers
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 05-02-11
                • 6168

                #8
                Record: (0-1) -3.15*

                Oct. 31 Wed

                1* PHO -2 (-107)
                Comment
                • skyscrapers
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 05-02-11
                  • 6168

                  #9
                  Record: (0-2) -4.22*

                  Nov. 01 Thu

                  4* OKC/SA u204.5 (-107)
                  Comment
                  • skyscrapers
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 05-02-11
                    • 6168

                    #10
                    I completely forgot about posting

                    Record: (1-2) -0.22*

                    Nov 02 Fri.

                    4* DEN/ORL u197 (-104)
                    Comment
                    • skyscrapers
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 05-02-11
                      • 6168

                      #11
                      Record: (2-2) +3.78*

                      Nov. 03 Sat

                      4* SAC +7.5 (-105)
                      Comment
                      • skyscrapers
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 05-02-11
                        • 6168

                        #12
                        Record: (2-3) -0.42*

                        Nov. 04 Sun

                        4* ORL -1 (-108)
                        Comment
                        • skyscrapers
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 05-02-11
                          • 6168

                          #13
                          Record: (3-3) +3.58*

                          Nov. 05 Mon

                          2* MIN +7.5 (-105)
                          Comment
                          • skyscrapers
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 05-02-11
                            • 6168

                            #14
                            MIN wins outright last night!!

                            Record: (4-3) +5.58*

                            Nov. 06 Tue

                            2* DET +10.5 (-105)
                            Comment
                            • skyscrapers
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 05-02-11
                              • 6168

                              #15
                              Record: (4-4) +3.48*

                              Nov. 07 Wed

                              4* TOR/DAL o198 (-110)
                              Comment
                              • skyscrapers
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 05-02-11
                                • 6168

                                #16
                                Record: (5-4) +7.48*

                                Nov 08 Thu

                                3* OKC/CHI u190.5 (-107)
                                Comment
                                • NoobieMan
                                  SBR Rookie
                                  • 11-07-12
                                  • 3

                                  #17
                                  You seem to have good results for the moments. I like this kind of bets which is random. No analysis. I'll try to follow you.
                                  Good luck

                                  Ps: Sorry but English is not my language.
                                  Comment
                                  • skyscrapers
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 05-02-11
                                    • 6168

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by NoobieMan
                                    You seem to have good results for the moments. I like this kind of bets which is random. No analysis. I'll try to follow you.
                                    Good luck

                                    Ps: Sorry but English is not my language.
                                    Ya Noobie. After losing the first 2 games to start the season I was doubting that this experiment is gonna work. So far I'm pleasantly surprised it's been making me over $1K so far with no capping whatsoever!! Seems like some people are right in saying they rather roll a dice than follow some crappy capper .

                                    It's a nice start but very early in the season so we'll see...

                                    Record: (6-4) +10.48*
                                    Comment
                                    • Lakers714
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 06-17-09
                                      • 4671

                                      #19
                                      This has to be a joke right? I'm not saying by any means that I wanna see u lose; I want everyone to win. However, u have to cap games if u want to win in the long run. This can only work for a short period of time. Like the very first post mentioned, there is never going to be a consensus, but u still have to cap the games if u wanna keep doing this for profit year after year. My only advice is money management. The most important key in sports betting, IMO. BOL to u though.
                                      Comment
                                      • skyscrapers
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 05-02-11
                                        • 6168

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Lakers714
                                        This has to be a joke right? I'm not saying by any means that I wanna see u lose; I want everyone to win. However, u have to cap games if u want to win in the long run. This can only work for a short period of time. Like the very first post mentioned, there is never going to be a consensus, but u still have to cap the games if u wanna keep doing this for profit year after year. My only advice is money management. The most important key in sports betting, IMO. BOL to u though.
                                        Hey Lakers, I'm not disagreeing with you. I still cap games and will always cap for my own bets. Like I said before this is an experiment to see if it's better off to just randomly selecting games to bet than following a so-called professional capper.

                                        Of course money management is very important so that's why there are only 4 units to randomly choose from in this experiment which is fairly average in terms of what many cappers out there do. I myself bet on a 4-unit scale as well.

                                        Nov. 09 Fri
                                        3* PHO -4 (-103)
                                        Comment
                                        • skyscrapers
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 05-02-11
                                          • 6168

                                          #21
                                          Season: (6-5) +7.39*

                                          Nov. 10 Sat

                                          4) SA/POR u196.5 (-106)
                                          Comment
                                          • skyscrapers
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 05-02-11
                                            • 6168

                                            #22
                                            Seems to be picking a lot of 4's lately

                                            Season: (6-6) +3.15

                                            Nov. 11 Sun

                                            4) MIA/MEM u195 (-106)
                                            Comment
                                            • skyscrapers
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 05-02-11
                                              • 6168

                                              #23
                                              Season: (7-6) +7.15

                                              Nov. 12 Mon

                                              1* DAL -7 (-104)
                                              Comment
                                              • Lee Jones
                                                SBR Sharp
                                                • 12-14-08
                                                • 459

                                                #24
                                                This is great lol.. I think i might try simulating games on nba (xbox) and take the winner for my experiment. Best of luck!
                                                Comment
                                                • skyscrapers
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 05-02-11
                                                  • 6168

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Lee Jones
                                                  This is great lol.. I think i might try simulating games on nba (xbox) and take the winner for my experiment. Best of luck!
                                                  Let me know how it's working out!!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • skyscrapers
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 05-02-11
                                                    • 6168

                                                    #26
                                                    Season: (7-7) +6.11*

                                                    Nov 13 Tue

                                                    1* ORL +7 (-105)
                                                    Comment
                                                    • skyscrapers
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 05-02-11
                                                      • 6168

                                                      #27
                                                      Season: (7-8) -5.06*

                                                      Nov. 14 Wed

                                                      2* CHI/PHO o188 (-110)
                                                      Comment
                                                      • skyscrapers
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 05-02-11
                                                        • 6168

                                                        #28
                                                        Season: (8-8) +7.06*

                                                        Nov. 15 Thu

                                                        4* DEN -3 (-115)
                                                        Comment
                                                        • skyscrapers
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 05-02-11
                                                          • 6168

                                                          #29
                                                          Season: (8-9) +2.46*

                                                          Nov. 16 Fri

                                                          4* PHO/LAL o201 (-106)
                                                          Comment
                                                          • skyscrapers
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 05-02-11
                                                            • 6168

                                                            #30
                                                            Season: (9-9) +6.46*

                                                            Nov. 17 Sat

                                                            3* UTH/WSH o189.5 (-105)
                                                            Comment
                                                            • skyscrapers
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 05-02-11
                                                              • 6168

                                                              #31
                                                              Season: (9-10) +$3.31*

                                                              Nov 18 Sun:

                                                              2* CLE/PHI o190.5 (-109)
                                                              Comment
                                                              • skyscrapers
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 05-02-11
                                                                • 6168

                                                                #32
                                                                Forgot to post again

                                                                Season: (9-11) +1.13*

                                                                Nov. 19 Mon

                                                                4* LAC +4.5 (-105)

                                                                Season: (10-11) +5.13*

                                                                Nov. 20 Tue
                                                                3* PHI -5.5 (-103)
                                                                Comment
                                                                • skyscrapers
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 05-02-11
                                                                  • 6168

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Season: (11-11) +8.13*

                                                                  Nov. 21 Wed

                                                                  2* BKY/GS o195.5 (-110)
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • skyscrapers
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 05-02-11
                                                                    • 6168

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Should have held off the play until closer to game time.

                                                                    Season: (11-12) +5.93*
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • skyscrapers
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 05-02-11
                                                                      • 6168

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Nov. 23 Fri

                                                                      4* MEM -4.5 (-108)
                                                                      Comment
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