Leans for Wednesday 11/12/08

[MoneySportsGuy]

well I hope Boston keeps it low scoring game which I think they will, and in that case, I think ATL has a good chance with +10.5

your right about the finals being different story how ATL got people worried last year vs Boston

[NYCKEV]

CK whats your insight on Indi-Nets game?

[cocknocker]

wang,

I don't like the Houston/Phoenix game at all, and I gave it a pass. Phoenix is in their second game home after a road trip, and should be in form as they have alternated ats wins and losses over their last 4 games but Houston is in their 4th game of a five game road trip and got blown out by the Lakers in their last effort. usually i will always take a team in the 4th game of a road trip (BigMoneyMan style), but with the aforementioned Suns ready to play in form in this game I have to pass. but I give the slight lean to Houston moneyline with a shortened play amount that you won't miss in case you lose. The Rockets will have less than 300 points scored in the last 3 games (273) when they step on the court with 2 days rest. I think the moneyline straight is worth a shot. The Suns have gotten old right before our eyes.

Los Angeles Lakers 1st half is an excellent play as the Hornets are a great second half team, and the Lakers have the carry-over effect working for them in the back end of back to back games. The Hornets have been sitting around since 11/8, so they will get it going after the break.

Atlanta 1st quarter...I ONLY TAKE 1ST QUARTER BETS THAT ARE OFFERED AT +100 or better positive money. If the line has the Hawks at +100 it is a good bet. If not then it is a horrible bet.

[cocknocker]

NYCKEV

Indy/Nets...he Nets have not been catching points at home against Indiana since i can remember. Since both played 11/10, there is no advantage there. Indiana is 1-5 ats on the road at New Jersey. new Jersey is in their first game home after a 2 game road trip and Indiana is coming off a blown ats cover against Oklahoma City. Too many injuries on both sides to handicap this game well. I suggest a pass on this one and put some money on Northern Illinois tonight in college football

[MoneySportsGuy]

cocknocker,

What do you think of ATL 1st Q +3.5 -115?

Agree with you on Lakers 1st half I think they come out strong

[sportsguy04]

wang,

I don't like the Houston/Phoenix game at all, and I gave it a pass. Phoenix is in their second game home after a road trip, and should be in form as they have alternated ats wins and losses over their last 4 games but Houston is in their 4th game of a five game road trip and got blown out by the Lakers in their last effort. usually i will always take a team in the 4th game of a road trip (BigMoneyMan style), but with the aforementioned Suns ready to play in form in this game I have to pass. but I give the slight lean to Houston moneyline with a shortened play amount that you won't miss in case you lose. The Rockets will have less than 300 points scored in the last 3 games (273) when they step on the court with 2 days rest. I think the moneyline straight is worth a shot. The Suns have gotten old right before our eyes.

Los Angeles Lakers 1st half is an excellent play as the Hornets are a great second half team, and the Lakers have the carry-over effect working for them in the back end of back to back games. The Hornets have been sitting around since 11/8, so they will get it going after the break.

.

Yeah except lakers are not a first half team. Lakers pour the points on and make their run in the second half. Teams get early leads on lakers in first half. Once second half hits Lakers catch their opponents tired when they are fresh and make their run to win the game.

[wangichu]

I'm liking the grizzlies against NYK too... imho they improved more than the knicks this year as they have competed more on the road than the knicks, plus their improvement includes much better defense, something i credit largely to the addition of OJ Mayo, who was well schooled in D from the pac 10. playing on memphis's home court (the only place i really trust rookies to be factors) i really like them to handle their business as the knicks on the road are good fade material early here after a few half decent wins at home. The money has been floating around 50/50 yet the line inched in favor of memphis

MEM -4

[wangichu]

Yeah except lakers are not a first half team. Lakers pour the points on and make their run in the second half. Teams get early leads on lakers in first half. Once second half hits Lakers catch their opponents tired when they are fresh and make their run to win the game.

nah... maybe at home, but definitely not on the road... i'm an avid lakers fan and pay VERY close attention to their games... made a killing on them in the playoffs last year, and had the sense to cash out before the finals. They come out attacking on the road and normally sustain that... they're a great 4th quarter team, but when they're right on the road, they come out, dictate pace and establish a lead early to take the crowd out of it like any good team does on the road, especially being led by phil. They also come out stronger in big games which this clearly is.

as for last night vs. the mavs, the mavs did a good job of dictating pace early and caught the lakers off guard, but momentum will be with the lakes tonight early.

btw, the 3Q is usually the lakers weakest

[oso]

Ck--You still recommend my play to be Boston right for my big bet, may even go to 1500 if you feel confident??? let me know

Oso is bear in spanish That was my Rotts name he just passed away! He wasa great dog took a knife for me.

[oso]

Ck- My line for the c's is -11?? what to do!

[IrwinFletcher]

Phx/Hou under the number.. as long as it doesn't bottom out below 195.. we know houston won't want to run.. I expect lots of minutes for Shaq when Yao is in the game.. Should be slow low post affair here..

Keep an eye on that Miami/Portland game.. Just heard on the wire that Oden is expecting to get some minutes in this game and Marion is likely out.. Also liking the under 189 in that game.

Love the Celts -10.5.. I see more of the same in Boston here.. Their avg margin of victory at home v the Hawks last year was just under 25.. skewed by the playoff beat-down the Hawks took in Bos.. regular season was a 11.5 margin. Add to this the line has stayed put at 10.5 while nearly 70% of bettors are on ATL..

Also love UTA/WAS under 196. Jazz on the second half of back to back.. tired legs means short jumpers..

[MoneySportsGuy]

[QUOTE=wangichu;1188825]nah... maybe at home, but definitely not on the road... i'm an avid lakers fan and pay VERY close attention to their games... made a killing on them in the playoffs last year, and had the sense to cash out before the finals. They come out attacking on the road and normally sustain that... they're a great 4th quarter team, but when they're right on the road, they come out, dictate pace and establish a lead early to take the crowd out of it like any good team does on the road, especially being led by phil. They also come out stronger in big games which this clearly is.

as for last night vs. the mavs, the mavs did a good job of dictating pace early and caught the lakers off guard, but momentum will be with the lakes tonight early.

btw, the 3Q is usually the lakers weakest[/QUOTE]



good info right there have to look into that didnt even check that but that is very helpful info

[MoneySportsGuy]

Irwin

Yeah agree with you on the Heat UNDER and also phx and Houston UNDER.
That Wiz one looks interesting, currently total is at 196.5

[cocknocker]

Oso,

buy it back down to Boston-10 and play it for $750.00. Then take $100 and parlay the Hornets and the Celtics. You will get the same results wth less money put up.

MoneySportsGuy,

I never recommend playing a 1st quarter bet if it isn't for even (+100) money. However, if you ever see a 1st quarter line that is being offered for +100 or better I am all ears. Please bring it to my attention if you do.

IrwinFletcher (I love that new name, it sounds James Bondish!)

If Oden comes back he will mess up the natural rotation that the Blazers have had in their recent success, and throw the minutes all off. marion wasn't really doiong anything for the Heat anyway, so his production will not be missed.

YOU GUYS LOOK OUT. BigMoneyMan is on the way and will be on this thread in a couple of days along with nightridah. This is sure going to be interesting when they get on these threads. We are about to burn it up!

[NYCKEV]

So u got in touch with BigMoney and Nightridah?!? ahhh I feel right back at home. Yo sup wit Kong? I did the following just for fun:

#105428756 Team PARLAY
$ 100.00 wagered to win $ 4,000.00 at 11/12/2008 18:25
Odds : 40.00 to 1PARLAY
COMMITTED $ 100.0011/12/2008 20:05NBA MIAMI to Win -1.5(-105)
PORTLAND vs MIAMI
On ESPN 11/12/2008 19:35NBA INDIANA to Win -1.5(-105)
INDIANA vs NEW JERSEY 11/12/2008 20:05NBA LA LAKERS to Win +1.5(-105)
LA LAKERS vs NEW ORLEANS 11/12/2008 22:35NBA PHOENIX to Win -3.5(-105)
HOUSTON vs PHOENIX
On ESPN 11/12/2008 19:05NBA TORONTO to Win -5.5(-105)
PHILADELPHIA vs TORONTO 11/12/2008 20:05NBA UTAH to Win -4.5(-105)
UTAH vs WASHINGTON Lets get it!

[oso]

thanks CK I am doing it!

Guys nightridah knows dem totals!! This site is ready tp blow up......bigtiime


Ok waitin on the late night pick.... lets do this!

[IrwinFletcher]

just like old times..

[Alex68]

GL CK.

[cocknocker]

night is on vacation in Jamaica right now(sure must be nice), and Big is on the road on a business trip. When they get back, they will contribute as I have asked both of them to lend their expertise to the thread and help strengthen and broaden the spectrum of knowledge in these pages.

[showtime2000]

Can't wait for their expertise too!
Thanks for all your knowledge, input and evaluations Ck, well done!

[Alex68]

Orlando is up to -8.5 now. What do u think CK?

[maddogmadden86]

CK that is music to my ears hearing knight and bigmoney are gonna join in on the fun as well i was going to actually ask you about the memphis game but you are on the same side as me lets do this shit tonight and cash these tickets son!!!! Do Work!!!!!

[maddogmadden86]

yea yea yea hit the hawks first quarter now its time for the Celtics to do their job

[andkon]

Raps -4.5 in the 2nd half. Hit it.

[cocknocker]

Boston home defense
19 3rd quarter
22.25 4th
41.25 total

Atlanta road defense
20 3rd quarter
26 4th quarter

46 total

4.75 advantage for Boston

Boston Home offense
22 3rd quarter
27.50 4th quarter

49.50 total

Atlanta Road offense
22 3rd quater
28.50 4th quarter
50.25 total

0.75 advantage for Atlanta

The 2nd half line should be accompanied with a 1.5 point adjustment for Boston on top of the 4.5 to 5 point natural advantage they enjoy. In short , what we are looking for is a spread for Boston of -7 or so

[cocknocker]

And as advertised we ended up with Boston -7.5 for the 2nd half spread, which means that the oddsmakers fully expect for them to cover the game spread, the same as I do. Time to double up boys. I am placing a $250.00 bet on the Celtics 2nd half. Atlanta had a big lead and let it slip away within the same half of basketball. Not good.

[cocknocker]

When we get to the half of Miami and Portland, i will be laying a wager on the heat for the second half as well.

Miami 2nd half home defense 48.33
Portland 2nd half road defense 52

3.67 advantage for Miami

Miami 2nd half home offense 53.33
Portland 2nd half offense 45.75

7.58 advantage for Miami

That's a whopping 11.25 advantage fro Miami second half in thsi game and I am taking it!

[cocknocker]

The second half line for Miami is a PK. Of course I am taking that with no questions asked.

[wangichu]

you playing the horny's in the second or do you think the lakers have this one? ... i'll probably just chill and hope we hold on but just wondering?

[cocknocker]

Somebody call the police. Orlando is killing the Thunder! The lakers are killing New Orleans. I think that the Blue Bees will cover the 2nd half spread, but they will lose the spread on this game unless something shot of a miracle happens!

[maddogmadden86]

hey CK did u make a play for the clippers kings game or you decided to sit that one out

[MoneySportsGuy]

yeah glad I got Lakers but man did not get Orlando but wow what a blowout that is turning to be.

are you on the 2 10:30 games cocknocker?

[cocknocker]

Oh phooey on Boston! They took $850 from me as an entire team. i am holding them personally to a man responsible for getting my money back, and i am sure that i will find a spot to get it back. Orlando and Washington are doing their thing, New Orleans is getting back half of my money for the 2nd half win, and Miami is sort of ****ing off, but here's still time and Dwayne Wade is nothing if not dramatic.So all in all I think it's time for my Clippers bet to make the day satisfying!

[maddogmadden86]

CK u taking teh clippers -7.5?

[MoneySportsGuy]

yeah dont know what is with Heat tonight but that one ref I swear has had 4 iffy calls for Portland that I have personally seen

doesnt help when they show him wincing when Portland misses a FT that he just helped call foul on the Heat