Formula 1: Germany Grand Prix

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  • Dad
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 11-26-08
    • 23245

    #1
    Formula 1: Germany Grand Prix
    I had a good week last week cashing in on Formula 1 for a cool +12.6 units of profit.

    Can my luck cary over into this weekend? I sure hope so!

    Just like Webber last week, this week I think the best value is in Massa at +2500 odds. Massa has done well at this track. In 2010 he qualified 3rd and finished the race 2nd. In 2008 he qualified 2nd and finished the race 3rd. I dont know, call me crazy, but I think Massa has better than a 25-1 chance of winning this race. And we wont see these kind of odds on Massa later on if he does good in qualifying.

    I would love to hear everybody else's thoughts.

    My bets for this weekend:

    To win Pole:
    Hamilton +350 (2.4 units)
    Alonso +800 (1.2 units)
    Field +1200 (1.2 units)
    (The field inludes Massa)

    To win the race:
    Alonso +450 (1 unit)
    Hamilton +500 (1.6 units)
    Massa +2500 (1.2 units)

    Winning car:
    Ferrari +400 (2 units)

    Good luck this week, boys!


  • Optional
    Administrator
    • 06-10-10
    • 61508

    #2
    I think yer dreamin re Massa. That turkey is just about done. ;-)
    .
    Comment
    • shaunovery
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 11-15-07
      • 18143

      #3
      Couldn't have massa with counterfeit
      Comment
      • Dad
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 11-26-08
        • 23245

        #4
        Originally posted by Optional
        I think yer dreamin re Massa. That turkey is just about done. ;-)
        Originally posted by shaunovery
        Couldn't have massa with counterfeit
        Yeah, I didnt think Massa would be a popular choice.

        Lets hear what you guys are doing, boys.
        Comment
        • 5mike5
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 09-21-11
          • 52002

          #5
          i see massa +4325 to win the race?

          anyways, i know absolutley nothing about F1,

          so u boys find me a winner!
          Comment
          • Dad
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 11-26-08
            • 23245

            #6
            Originally posted by 5mike5
            i see massa +4325 to win the race?

            anyways, i know absolutley nothing about F1,

            so u boys find me a winner!
            I need to get funded at 5Dimes.

            Mike, just when you thought you were gonna take the weekend off.
            Comment
            • 5mike5
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 09-21-11
              • 52002

              #7
              going out to dinner in a few, just got back from getting drenched by T-storms while at universal studios

              ill probably be back saturday sometime.....just depends what the miss wants to do though

              i need the action!
              Comment
              • Dad
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 11-26-08
                • 23245

                #8
                Actually, I remember looking at 5Dimes lines yesterday and Massa was +2700. Why did he jump to +4325?

                Hasnt moved from +2500 at betphoenix.
                Comment
                • 5mike5
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 09-21-11
                  • 52002

                  #9
                  not sure dad,

                  i just happened to see it

                  Opti or shaun may know why....im clueless on everything F1 related
                  Comment
                  • Dad
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 11-26-08
                    • 23245

                    #10
                    Last week Massa put in his best performance of 2012 so far, qualifying fifth and then finishing just one place behind the podium.

                    He is improving and boosting his confidence. I still like my play.
                    Comment
                    • 5mike5
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 09-21-11
                      • 52002

                      #11
                      ill tail your massa play...

                      Comment
                      • Optional
                        Administrator
                        • 06-10-10
                        • 61508

                        #12
                        He definitely looked better in Britain.

                        No idea why the blow out in price at 5D. Have not seen any news that might explain it.
                        .
                        Comment
                        • 5mike5
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 09-21-11
                          • 52002

                          #13
                          how bad was the wreck he was in?
                          Comment
                          • Optional
                            Administrator
                            • 06-10-10
                            • 61508

                            #14
                            Originally posted by 5mike5
                            how bad was the wreck he was in?
                            Massa?

                            A suspension spring came off a car and hit him in the head at 150mph+

                            Smashed his helmet and his eye socket. He was in hospital and rehab for months and has never been the same since.

                            On top of that he had his first child during the time off.

                            He is slower because he plans not to die when racing these days I think.
                            .
                            Comment
                            • 5mike5
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 09-21-11
                              • 52002

                              #15
                              wow

                              easily could have killed him
                              Comment
                              • MatI
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 02-17-11
                                • 5200

                                #16
                                Opti is right. He has never been the same since, but he was never anything special to begin with. He had good results when they was only two different teams fighting for the win, which meant he would at worst finish 4th-5th. Now that there are 4-5 teams in with a chance, he has struggled a lot more.

                                Video of his incident.

                                Comment
                                • MatI
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 02-17-11
                                  • 5200

                                  #17
                                  Comment
                                  • MatI
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 02-17-11
                                    • 5200

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Dad
                                    Last week Massa put in his best performance of 2012 so far, qualifying fifth and then finishing just one place behind the podium.

                                    He is improving and boosting his confidence. I still like my play.
                                    It was his best result in over 2 years. He hasn't finished on the podium in even longer. He is fighting for his career at the moment, but no amount of motivation is going to get him a win any time soon.

                                    Hockenheim has a really long back straight and will most likely be hot weather. Straight line speed should be a nice little advantage in qualifying, so I think the Mercedes are good value, Red Bull cars are also coming into good form and should be fighting for pole as well. Mercedes were not very good in the last race but they gambled on a wet race setup, which didn't materialise. Either way, i like them for qual, but not race.

                                    In the race I like Red Bull & Lotus cars. Lotus have been very close to a win but just keep falling short. Last week, one of the Lotus cars had to pit at the end of the 1st lap to repair damage, he rejoined the race in last position but finished 6th. He was fastest man on track all race.

                                    My leans so far:

                                    Pole Position
                                    Nico Rosberg +1600
                                    M Schumacher +1600
                                    S Vettell +165

                                    Race Winner
                                    Vettel +200
                                    Lotus +700

                                    Top 6 Finish
                                    Grosjean +125
                                    Comment
                                    • Optional
                                      Administrator
                                      • 06-10-10
                                      • 61508

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by MatI
                                      My leans so far:

                                      Pole Position
                                      Nico Rosberg +1600
                                      M Schumacher +1600
                                      S Vettell +165

                                      Race Winner
                                      Vettel +200
                                      Lotus +700

                                      Top 6 Finish
                                      Grosjean +125
                                      I like every one of those.
                                      .
                                      Comment
                                      • shaunovery
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 11-15-07
                                        • 18143

                                        #20
                                        Please people forget about massa to win the race he'll be lucky to finish inside top 6 alonso going for championship so Ferrari will be putting all efforts into that car

                                        My leans

                                        H2h grosjean/rakkionnen to bt Hamilton/ button whatever h2h matchups I can get

                                        Race winner vettel(home Gp) or alonso
                                        Comment
                                        • shaunovery
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 11-15-07
                                          • 18143

                                          #21
                                          For those who can play at betfair massa is 44-1
                                          Comment
                                          • 5mike5
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 09-21-11
                                            • 52002

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by MatI
                                            thanks for finding these pics and videos Mati

                                            unbelievable...
                                            Comment
                                            • Optional
                                              Administrator
                                              • 06-10-10
                                              • 61508

                                              #23
                                              Well, I almost hope Massa comes out and nails it for you just so you can bury us all later Dad

                                              But your Hamilton odds are looking even better today after McLaren came out and said there will be 'noticable' upgrades coming on to the car finally.

                                              This could be a big test for McLaren this weekend. If they have gone all out for an upgrade package and it doesn't work, they might have to start accepting that they simply got it wrong with their smooth nose design to start the year and will continue to fall further behind as all the other teams develop their step nosed cars even further.

                                              But I'm not so sure that have got it that wrong, so might play something on Ham too.
                                              .
                                              Comment
                                              • Dad
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 11-26-08
                                                • 23245

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by Optional
                                                Well, I almost hope Massa comes out and nails it for you just so you can bury us all later Dad

                                                But your Hamilton odds are looking even better today after McLaren came out and said there will be 'noticable' upgrades coming on to the car finally.

                                                This could be a big test for McLaren this weekend. If they have gone all out for an upgrade package and it doesn't work, they might have to start accepting that they simply got it wrong with their smooth nose design to start the year and will continue to fall further behind as all the other teams develop their step nosed cars even further.

                                                But I'm not so sure that have got it that wrong, so might play something on Ham too.
                                                Haha Thanks Optional!

                                                I would be very happy with a Hamilton win also.
                                                Comment
                                                • Dark Horse
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 12-14-05
                                                  • 13764

                                                  #25
                                                  Wait until after the qualifying. The comments from the drivers after that will give you a ton of useful info. Things change every race, never more than this season.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Dad
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 11-26-08
                                                    • 23245

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Dark Horse
                                                    Wait until after the qualifying. The comments from the drivers after that will give you a ton of useful info. Things change every race, never more than this season.
                                                    True. But you may not get the odds you want after qualifying.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Optional
                                                      Administrator
                                                      • 06-10-10
                                                      • 61508

                                                      #27
                                                      McLarens top the time sheets in P1.

                                                      Weird session. Lotus and Red Bull didn't do any fast laps.

                                                      Alonso and Schumacher appeared to have decent setups.
                                                      .
                                                      Comment
                                                      • shaunovery
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 11-15-07
                                                        • 18143

                                                        #28
                                                        Mis leading p1 expect a lot of changes in p2
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Optional
                                                          Administrator
                                                          • 06-10-10
                                                          • 61508

                                                          #29
                                                          Apparently it's pouring rain at the track right now.

                                                          P2 may be no help either.

                                                          Annoying 2 races in a row.
                                                          .
                                                          Comment
                                                          • shaunovery
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 11-15-07
                                                            • 18143

                                                            #30
                                                            Nothing to see this session pouring with rain

                                                            Rain also expected for qualifying tomorrow
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Optional
                                                              Administrator
                                                              • 06-10-10
                                                              • 61508

                                                              #31
                                                              Ugh
                                                              .
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Optional
                                                                Administrator
                                                                • 06-10-10
                                                                • 61508

                                                                #32
                                                                Did you hear Ted Kravitz say Kovalainen has been talking to Ferrari about next year?

                                                                He laughed it off saying even Massa says everyone has been talking to Ferrari.

                                                                But that would be a pretty much perfect 1 year contract imho. I've always thought Kovi was up there near the best drivers. Although he never seemed to fully recover from that accident with McLaren where he went right under a tyre barrier. Whilst he was still with McLaren at least.

                                                                1 year with Ferrari to prove his real worth to the paddock would have him salivating, whereas all the other contenders would be wanting a chance to keep the seat if they risk moving there. Might be enough for Ferrari to go with Heikki...
                                                                .
                                                                Comment
                                                                • shaunovery
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 11-15-07
                                                                  • 18143

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Maybe trying to get him on the cheap with a 1 yr deal

                                                                  All teams trying to et there drivers signed for nxt yr webber already signed Lewis having talks
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Dad
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 11-26-08
                                                                    • 23245

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Rain Rain Go Away
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • MatI
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 02-17-11
                                                                      • 5200

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Was hard to get any kind of feel from those practice sessions. Fingers crossed there is some dry running today....
                                                                      Comment
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