TALLADEGA--5mike5

[Reno Paul]

Good luck to you too Mike.

[5mike5]

Good luck to you too Mike.

thanks

were all going to need some luck!

[Noles1992]

Mike . In mY streak on Nascar game. I am thinking of using one of these 3. Gordon, Biffle or Edwards for this race. Any thoughts ?

Thanks Noles

[Optional]

You aren't helping anyone when you say practice is irrelevant when it comes to betting on NASCAR.

Up until last year I used to rely quite a bit on session times and averages when capping a race. Maybe 30% of the final equation, but since they changed around the damn quali format so much and gave incentives for fast drivers to sandbag some weeks it threw me.

I still don't really know how far to incorporate practice times into the model. If at all.

Pisses me off still and my keenness for betting the races has decreased a little because of it too. Honestly, I feel like I have replaced that 30% reliance on practice times with gut feel this year. Feel like I'm not doing a hell of a lot more than guessing what practice means most weeks now.

Do you have a method for analyzing practice times you like?

[5mike5]

Mike . In mY streak on Nascar game. I am thinking of using one of these 3. Gordon, Biffle or Edwards for this race. Any thoughts ?

Thanks Noles

as u know i dont want to lose your streak for ya so dont blindly go with my choice, and this is really just a total crap-shoot buddy

any1 could win the race, but if i was picking from just those 3, id go gordon....
but theres really no right anwser...just pick 1 and pray...thats what im doing ..lol

i wish u luck with ur pick

[Trident]

Up until last year I used to rely quite a bit on session times and averages when capping a race. Maybe 30% of the final equation, but since they changed around the damn quali format so much and gave incentives for fast drivers to sandbag some weeks it threw me.

I still don't really know how far to incorporate practice times into the model. If at all.

Pisses me off still and my keenness for betting the races has decreased a little because of it too. Honestly, I feel like I have replaced that 30% reliance on practice times with gut feel this year. Feel like I'm not doing a hell of a lot more than guessing what practice means most weeks now.

Do you have a method for analyzing practice times you like?

You are spot on with the sandbag tactics that so many of the top drivers are pulling now with the new rule, it has thrown me for a loop this year as well.

I have had good success using 10 consecutive lap average's especially when they start the 10 lap run five or six laps into a run rather than starting the run on the first lap, using just one fast lap as a barometer doesn't tell me anything.

One of my main tools for years has been chassis selection especially when betting matchups.

[Optional]

A smart guy, who used to work in the garage, once told me keeping a close eye on who is running a brand new chassis is worthwhile. I can't help myself following that still, but don't take much notice of how 2nd hand cars have run in the past.

[5mike5]

Mike . In mY streak on Nascar game. I am thinking of using one of these 3. Gordon, Biffle or Edwards for this race. Any thoughts ?

Thanks Noles

let me know what u decide and ill route for ur pick

GL

[Noles1992]

Got Gordon. Hope there is no choke at the end again or at anypoint

[5mike5]

Got Gordon. Hope there is no choke at the end again or at anypoint

GL buddy

[Trident]

A smart guy, who used to work in the garage, once told me keeping a close eye on who is running a brand new chassis is worthwhile. I can't help myself following that still, but don't take much notice of how 2nd hand cars have run in the past.

I look at that completely the the other way, with no more testing a team can have a new car that should be fast at a certain track but till it actually hits the track its just a guess. A good example are the 3 wins from Stewart-Haas this year, all 3 wins were with cars that had not only been very competitive but had also won races previously.

[5mike5]

looks like 40% chance of rain pretty much all day at the track

[MatI]

Make that 100%, the track looks VERY wet right now.

[5mike5]

Make that 100%, the track looks VERY wet right now.

doubt we start at 1pm

takes forever to dry this track

[5mike5]

think im heading to the beach and darlington race next weekend

sounds like fun..

[5mike5]

definatley not starting on time...

[Optional]

I went with Keselowski/Bowyer/Ambrose for win

And parlayed Bowyer/Keselowski for top 10s

GL all

[5mike5]

I went with Keselowski/Bowyer/Ambrose for win

And parlayed Bowyer/Keselowski for top 10s

GL all

i love the picks Opti

got keslowski and bowyer with ya bud....

GOODLUCK

[Optional]

Thanks Mike

Trevor Bayne #21 +105* vs Juan Pablo Montoya #42
Bobby Labonte #47 +105* vs Casey Mears #13
Brad Keselowski #2 +105* vs Greg Biffle #16

Just parlayed those too. And took an 8 legger of NOT T5/T10 bets.

[rickie65]

I look at that completely the the other way, with no more testing a team can have a new car that should be fast at a certain track but till it actually hits the track its just a guess. A good example are the 3 wins from Stewart-Haas this year, all 3 wins were with cars that had not only been very competitive but had also won races previously.

I'm with you, the few times i've bet on the new chassis never came in for me. i like knowing the driver has a chassis that has run well before especially since the session #'s don't mean what they used to like Opti said. where do you find your chassis info? I see it randomly on MRN driver handicaps but they don't even cover half the field.

I"m feeling it for Jr this week! also threw a few $$ down on Ambrose, Logano, Menard, Montoya, Truex all at +3500 and higher. All seem to have a chance since you never know what'll happen at 'dega!

[5mike5]

Thanks Mike

Trevor Bayne #21 +105* vs Juan Pablo Montoya #42
Bobby Labonte #47 +105* vs Casey Mears #13
Brad Keselowski #2 +105* vs Greg Biffle #16

Just parlayed those too. And took an 8 legger of NOT T5/T10 bets.

really like that H2H parlay...looks solid

havent decided if im playin any H2H parlay yet....may just use it for another longshot or cover

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Ya'll see the on that broad in the skit they just did?

[5mike5]

TALLADEGA

let the crapshoot begin!!.....

To win the race:( profit)
dale jr. (+1100)
harvick (+1100)
truex jr. (+3500)
clint bowyer (+2500)
jeff burton (+2500/+2800)
Jamie McMurray (+2700)
Brad Keslowski (+1800)
the dinger (+4000)

cover wagers:
bottom 14 car wins the race (+1375)
menard (+5000)
knnseth (+1550)


**didnt bet any longshot parlays today...figured race winner will be longshot enough....Hope we get a exciting race today and hope every1 enjoys it!.....hope we all make some coin too....really appreciate everybodys useful input this week, as always it helps the group out bigtime

GOODLUCK everybody, we are all going to need it today

[Trident]

where do you find your chassis info? I see it randomly on MRN driver handicaps but they don't even cover half the field.

MRN, Jayski, Micah Roberts blog, team sites and will even ask drivers/crew chiefs on twitter if I can't find it, twitter is a great source of info.

[5mike5]

Ya'll see the on that broad in the skit they just did?

damn missed it

[Optional]

Ya'll see the on that broad in the skit they just did?

Check out a replay of the MotoGP podium from tonight if you want to see the best ever made DDD.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Check out a replay of the MotoGP podium from tonight if you want to see the best ever made DDD.

I must find this. I need this.

[5mike5]

u ever wager on MotoGP opti?

i see the odds on 5D all the time, but seems like would be tough, but ive never seen n event so i would have no idea myself

[Optional]

I'm with you, the few times i've bet on the new chassis never came in for me. i like knowing the driver has a chassis that has run well before especially since the session #'s don't mean what they used to like Opti said. where do you find your chassis info? I see it randomly on MRN driver handicaps but they don't even cover half the field.

I"m feeling it for Jr this week! also threw a few $$ down on Ambrose, Logano, Menard, Montoya, Truex all at +3500 and higher. All seem to have a chance since you never know what'll happen at 'dega!

This guy gets its together pretty early most weeks Rickie: http://robertsnascarnotes.blogspot.com/

Also, a new chassis does not mean it is a winner. If it comes off the truck awful could be great fade material. But it also could be a new generation of thinking and a chance to be unexpectedly fast. I think he meant play it safe when a new chassis is used.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

TALLADEGA

let the crapshoot begin!!.....

To win the race:( profit)
dale jr. (+1100)
harvick (+1100)
truex jr. (+3500)
clint bowyer (+2500)
jeff burton (+2500/+2800)
Jamie McMurray (+2700)
Brad Keslowski (+1800)
the dinger (+4000)

cover wagers:
bottom 14 car wins the race (+1375)
menard (+5000)
knnseth (+1550)


**didnt bet any longshot parlays today...figured race winner will be longshot enough....Hope we get a exciting race today and hope every1 enjoys it!.....hope we all make some coin too....really appreciate everybodys useful input this week, as always it helps the group out bigtime

GOODLUCK everybody, we are all going to need it today

Good luck Mike. I am on all of your profit Drivers except for The Dinger and McMurray.

[5mike5]

Good luck Mike. I am on all of your profit Drivers except for The Dinger and McMurray.

yeah just wanted to toss out mostly 25-1 and worse drivers, besides Jr and Happy harvick

cant play mostly all the top odds, and still have as many darts to throw and still win good coin...more drivers the better at plate races...dinger i added just in case he and BK hooked up at the end, same with burton...of course probably wont happen that way, but that was my thinking in those 2

GOODLUCK today hope we win

[Optional]

u ever wager on MotoGP opti?

i see the odds on 5D all the time, but seems like would be tough, but ive never seen n event so i would have no idea myself

I did tonight. But not regularly. Aussies have been doing well in the class for years, so it's oretty popular and well publicized down here.

MatI hit Stoner (the Aussie) at +160 tonight

[5mike5]

yeah i always notice stoner always fav for most races and championship

bet those can be wild races....i need to catch 1 sometime

[5mike5]

I did tonight. But not regularly. Aussies have been doing well in the class for years, so it's oretty popular and well publicized down here.

MatI hit Stoner (the Aussie) at +160 tonight

are they run on a paved course, or dirt courses??

probably dumb question, but never seen it b4

[JackalLion]

I'm on Bowyer, Biffle and Jr early. Gordon, Carl and Busch today. Also small fun wagers on 43 and 55.