i'm not from the south so i dunno if these are good

Optional · 03-05-12, 01:29 AM

You bet too many.

DDT · 03-05-12, 08:21 PM

are you now a millionare?

5mike5 · 03-05-12, 09:26 PM

no way u can make money betting that many matchups...cut it down by 80% is my advice

Vegas39 · 03-05-12, 09:30 PM

And don't bet anything -190

5mike5 · 03-05-12, 09:47 PM

Originally posted by Vegas39

And don't bet anything -190

i wouldnt bet a matchuop over -120 at the most...matchups just dont payoff in the longrun imo

rsigley · 03-11-12, 11:27 AM

why wouldn't you pay more than -120 if the odds to win are better than -120? and why bet less if you have edge wouldn't you bet as much as you have edge?

omg what a horrible start!!!!!!!!! 7-9 -1.88u

lets ge tthis kobalt tools money
*Mark Martin over Jeff Burton -120
Tony Stewart over Jeff Gordon -131
Kevin Harvick over Jeff Gordon -131
Mark Martin over Kurt Busch -110
Kurt Busch over Clint Bowyer +140
Greg Biffle over Dale Earnhardt Jr. -115
Mark Kenseth over Greg Biffle -131
Jeff Burton over Juan Montoya +100
Martin Treux Jr. over Ryan Newman -105
Kasey Kahne over Kenseth -121
Joey Logan over Montoya -120
Brad Keselowski over Treux Jr. -105
Montoya over Dale Earnhardt Jr. +199
Brad Keselowski over Earnhardt Jr. +158
Kyle Busch over Carl Edwards -104
Tony Stewart over Carl Edwards -120

sharpcat · 03-11-12, 11:34 AM

Originally posted by rsigley

why wouldn't you pay more than -120 if the odds to win are better than -120? and why bet less if you have edge wouldn't you bet as much as you have edge?

omg what a horrible start!!!!!!!!! 7-9 -1.88u

lets ge tthis kobalt tools money
*Mark Martin over Jeff Burton -120
Tony Stewart over Jeff Gordon -131
Kevin Harvick over Jeff Gordon -131
Mark Martin over Kurt Busch -110
Kurt Busch over Clint Bowyer +140
Greg Biffle over Dale Earnhardt Jr. -115
Mark Kenseth over Greg Biffle -131
Jeff Burton over Juan Montoya +100
Martin Treux Jr. over Ryan Newman -105
Kasey Kahne over Kenseth -121
Joey Logan over Montoya -120
Brad Keselowski over Treux Jr. -105
Montoya over Dale Earnhardt Jr. +199
Brad Keselowski over Earnhardt Jr. +158
Kyle Busch over Carl Edwards -104
Tony Stewart over Carl Edwards -120

Because Mike is the type of guy who bets 12 drivers "to win" a race and does not understand simple math.

You have a model for NASCAR that you have faith in or are you just betting these for fun?

rsigley · 03-11-12, 11:34 AM

To Win:

Greg Biffle +1400 0.5u
Kevin Harvick +800 0.5u

modeling all day

sharpcat · 03-11-12, 11:46 AM

Originally posted by rsigley

To Win:

Greg Biffle +1400 0.5u
Kevin Harvick +800 0.5u

modeling all day

Hopefully your model is right about the biff I hit him at +2000 the other day

Do you look at past data or just focus on practice/qualifying data?

onlooker · 03-11-12, 07:02 PM

Originally posted by sharpcat

Do you look at past data or just focus on practice/qualifying data?

I'm not rsig, but I use past track data and practice. Qualifying doesn't matter to me. The handful of drivers that are good at each track, will get in the top 10 pretty fast, no matter where they start. I actually hope the drivers I peg to bet on, qualify bad, so the odds are better.

Just my 2 cents.

Oh yeah, you don't have to be from the "south" to understand NASCAR.

rsigley · 03-18-12, 10:44 AM

whoops one accident and keselowski's car breaking both with < 10 laps went from 12-4 +9u to

H2H: 8-8 -0.65
H2H YTD: 15-17 -2.53u
To Win: 0-2 -1u

carl edwards over tony stewart -137
jeff gordon over greg biffle +109
brad keselowski over biffle +102
kenseth over biffle +113
burton over allmendinger +143
allmendinger over jamie mcmurray -140
treux jr over bowyer -120
kahne over kenseth +122
earnhardt jr over keselowski +144
newman over jamie mcmurray -210
keselowski over hamlin -120
earnhardt jr over treux jr -140
kahne over hamlin -105
stewart over kyle busch +214
jimmie johnson over kyle busch +157
jimmie johnson over tony stewart -153
jeff gordon over carl edwards -113
carl edwards over biffle +104
harvick over hamlin -105

to win:
kenseth +1500 0.5u
newman +1400 0.5u

rsigley · 03-18-12, 12:54 PM

somehow we ended up +0.29u with that accident and looking better at to wins. first time that has happened

rsigley · 03-25-12, 11:44 AM

H2H: 10-9 +0.97u
H2H YTD: 25-16 -1.56u
To Win: 0-4 -2u
Martin over Treux -140
Gordon over Keselowski -147
Keselowski over Biffle +149
Kenseth over Harvick +104
McMurray over Montoya -105
Kahne over Keselowski -121
Bowyer over Earnhardt -140
Burton over Allmendinger -125
Jimmie Johnson over Stewart -154
Jimmie Johnson over Kyle Busch -144

To Win:
Kenseth +964 0.5u
Jimmie Johnson +450 0.5u

rsigley · 03-25-12, 12:08 PM

forgot one:

Montoya over Earnhardt +150

rsigley · 04-01-12, 12:02 PM

good week last week

Tony Stewart over Brad Keselowski -126
Buffle over Allmendinger -119
Kenseth over McMurray -102
Biffle over Burton +147
Burton over Kenseth -123
McMurray over Treux Jr. +120
Biffle over Treux Jr. +140
Newman over Kahne +112
Kahne over Keselowski +116
Newman over Bowyer -114
Kenseth over Newman +165
Jimmie Johnson over Hamlin +142
Kyle Bush over Jimmie Johnson +125
Edwards over Kahne +166
Edwards over Earnhardt Jr. +165
Edwards over Harvick +257

To Win:
Gordon +550 0.5u
Carl Edwards +4440 0.5u
Greg Biffle +5550 0.5u

H2H: 1-10 -11.5u
H2H YTD: 25-36 -13.06u
To Win YTD: 0-6 -3u

rsigley · 04-14-12, 03:43 PM

H2H: 6-10 -1.86u
H2H YTD: 31-46 -14.92u
To Win YTD: 0-9 -4.5u

Allmendinger over Martin +129
Stewart o. Kyle Busch -105
Edwards over Steward -120
Hamlin over gordon -165
Newman over Bowyer +117
Gordon over Biffle +214
Kyle Busch over Kenseth +167
Harvick over Kenseth +185
Harvick over Kahne -105
Earnhardt over Keselowski +105
Newman over Logano -155
Treux Jr. over Newman -135
Earnhardt Jr. over Bowyer -120
Hamlin over Kahne -125
Allmendinger over Burton -140
Jimmie Johnson over Tony Stewart -140
Jimmie Johnson over Kyle Busch -150
Carl edwards over Keselowski -135
HArvick over Keselowski -104

To Win:
Earnhardt Jr. +1645 0.5u
Jimmie Johnson +900 0.5u

rsigley · 04-22-12, 10:50 AM

9-10 -2.5u
H2H YTD: 40-56 -17.42u
To Win YTD: 0-11 -5.5u
To Win:
Jeffery Gordon +1194 1u
Kasey Kahne +1200 1u

Martin over Allmendinger -105
Kenseth over Stewart -110
Kyle Busch over Stewart +137
Gordon over Kyle Bush -138
Martin over Bowyer -128
Biffle over Keselowski -132
Kenseth over Edwards +101
Treux over Burton -142
Newman over Treux +110
Kahne over Earnhardt -108
Hamlin over Keselowski -122
Newman over Allmendinger +120
Bowyer over Earnhardt +156
Newman over Earnhardt +162
Kahne over Hamlin +102
Allmendinger over Burton -152
Kyle Busch over Keselowski -105
Jeff Gordon over Carl Edwards +109
Harvick over Hamlin -113