NASCAR - Food City 500 - Preview/Odds/Thoughts
Location: Bristol
Time: 2:15PM EST / 1:15PM CST / 11:15AM PST
2005 Pole Winner: Elliott Sadler #38
2005 Winner: Kevin Harvick #29
Time: 2:15PM EST / 1:15PM CST / 11:15AM PST
2005 Pole Winner: Elliott Sadler #38
2005 Winner: Kevin Harvick #29
It’s time for the “Mean Season” to begin in the NASCAR Nextel Cup series. That’s the time of year when Bristol comes around and the drivers get a bit more frisky in their cars. This is where rivalries are created and battle lines are drawn to the point where it lasts all season and sometimes for an entire career. Greg Biffle and Kevin Harvick still don’t like each other and much of it has to do with their altercations at Bristol. Who could ever forget Harvick jumping over a bunch of cars after a Bristol race, reminiscent of Larry Holmes going after Trevor Berbick, and putting the choke hold on Biffle.
The late Dale Earnhardt made a name for himself, “The Intimidator”, because of his over-aggressive style of driving, particularly on the short fast track of Bristol where he won nine times. Darrell Waltrip won 12 times at Bristol and got the name “Jaws” early on because of his big mouth and also because his car took a bite out several fenders and bumpers of the other drivers.
Essentially, memories and memorable events are what make an event great and gives itself ever lasting luster. Bristol has kind of taken over as the Fenway Park or Wrigley field for NASCAR. Daytona is nice and it starts the year off, but Bristol still is the most coveted ticket in sports. Over 160,000 fans will show up at the Thunder Valley track nestled in the Smoky Mountains of eastern Tennessee just to see what will happen next during a Bristol race.
It does take a special type of driver to perform well at Bristol. It’s no coincidence that strong willed guys like Earnhardt and Waltrip have 21 combined wins between them on the track. Nice guys finish last on this track and the one who marks their territory the best becomes top cat.
One of the toughest drivers on the tour, Kevin Harvick (8/1), finally won at Bristol in this race last season. We say “Finally” because it was always his destiny to do well on these types of tracks and I believe I chose him to win in almost all 10 of the races he started there, so I had a rooting interest. Finally it paid off last season, but he had several near misses in between. In 10 career Cup races, Harvick finished in the top 5 five times and he had two other instances where he didn’t finish in the top 5 but did have the best car.
With all that said, Harvick’s status with the team is up in the air coming into Sunday’s race. This race could be pivotal to the future of Harvick and where he ends up for the 2007 season.
“We’ve kind of agreed to sit down in April and evaluate where things are,” said Harvick. “I’m not going to rush into things and do things I don’t want to do. I think right now we are in the same frame of mind about our goals, and our goals are to go out and get the season going on a good note and make the Chase. All the rest of it, the paper stuff, is something that’s not high on the list right now.”
Rumors have Harvick all set to jump into the new Toyota Camry when Toyota makes their debut on the Cup series next year. Other rumors have said the car owner of the GM Goodwrech Chevrolet, Richard Childress, has just about gone to the end of his rope with Harvick and that Harvick leaving is a done deal regardless of how well he performs this week.
Both rumors may have some validity, especially considering the way that Harvick’s teammate Jeff Burton (12/1) has run in the other Childress car. Burton’s strong run started at the end of last season and has rolled into the beginning of 2006. Coincidentally, the luck started turning for Burton when he had a strong second place finish in the fall Bristol race under the lights.
There have been whispers about Childress shifting the power structure of his organization from Harvick to Burton. Harvick is always getting into trouble by wearing his emotions on his sleeves and has embarrassed the Childress group on several occasions, while Burton is the epitome of a class act. However, don’t misinterpret Burton’s “class act” for being soft or weak on the tough track of Bristol. He’s still got enough rattlesnake in him to ruffle some feathers on the pavement.
We’re going to look for both Harvick and Burton to run great this week with Burton getting a slight edge. It’s likely that there will be several variations in Burton’s odds to win prices starting with the low end of 12 to 1. Shop around and get the best value. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Burton was found in the 25 to 1 range simply because he hasn’t won a race in so long. Burton’s last win was in 2001 at Phoenix. For his career he has totaled 17 wins, all of which came driving for Jack Roush.
There is a duo from another organization that needs to be looked at closely because they probably should have swept the season last year. Matt Kenseth (8/1) dominated the fall Bristol race like I haven’t seen many do before. Greg Biffle had some failed pit strategy in the later stages of the Spring race that allowed Harvick to win. Biffle finished ninth in that race then went on to finish third in the fall. Despite looking meek while getting choked by Harvick, Biffle has a whole lotta’ Wolverine in him.
The Kenseth win last season was car owner Jack Roush’s seventh win at Bristol. Four of the wins came from the estranged Kurt Busch with Mark Martin taking the other two checkers home. Jimmy Fennig is still the crew chief for the old Kurt Busch team that Jamie McMurray (15/1) is now piloting. McMurray’s best Bristol finish came his rookie year with a third place finish. The old Kurt Busch team doesn’t look the same, so I am still a bit leery of McMurray right now, but knowing that Fennig is still there and he’s the guy who got Roush six of those Bristol wins makes it a bit easier to take one more shot with J-Mac.
Kurt Busch is now driving the Penske Dodge which has been awful so far. Rusty Wallace always ran well at Bristol which should be comforting to Busch who has proven already that he is pretty good on the high banks of Bristol. Be cautious of match-ups involving Busch; He’s a wild card. I could see him winning just as easy as I could see him finish three laps down in 31st place.
Tony Stewart (9/1) has one career win at Bristol and has always looked strong in practice times, but he finds trouble, or vice-versa. Last season he stayed clear of trouble and wound up with a third and an eighth place finish. Prior to those runs, Stewarts best finish since his one and only win there in 2001 came in 2002 with a 15th place finish. Stewart is going through a frustration phase right now is like a Bull in the China shop. If I was Kyle Busch, who seems to be driver #1 on Tony’s chump list, I would stay as far away from Stewart as possible during this race because incidental contact is made to look easy on this track. Because of Stewart’s current state of anger, it may be wise to stay away from him or bet against in match-ups.
Jeff Gordon (9/1) is only a five-time winner at the track with his last win coming in 2002 there. He is definitely on an upswing and there is a lot of value with him in odds to win. His best Bristol run since that win was a sixth in the fall race last season.
Kenny Schrader (100/1) might be a nice long shot to take a look at in the No. 21 Wood Brothers Ford. The team hasn’t performed very well this season, but Bristol is a track where they have always done well at, even in this modern era of multi-car teams, a period in the Wood brother’s history where they have been far less successful. Ricky Rudd finished fourth in the fall race last season and their last win as a team came with Elliott Sadler in 2001 at Bristol. He is a real long shot to win, but should present great value in match-ups simply because of how bad they have been this season.
The late Dale Earnhardt made a name for himself, “The Intimidator”, because of his over-aggressive style of driving, particularly on the short fast track of Bristol where he won nine times. Darrell Waltrip won 12 times at Bristol and got the name “Jaws” early on because of his big mouth and also because his car took a bite out several fenders and bumpers of the other drivers.
Essentially, memories and memorable events are what make an event great and gives itself ever lasting luster. Bristol has kind of taken over as the Fenway Park or Wrigley field for NASCAR. Daytona is nice and it starts the year off, but Bristol still is the most coveted ticket in sports. Over 160,000 fans will show up at the Thunder Valley track nestled in the Smoky Mountains of eastern Tennessee just to see what will happen next during a Bristol race.
It does take a special type of driver to perform well at Bristol. It’s no coincidence that strong willed guys like Earnhardt and Waltrip have 21 combined wins between them on the track. Nice guys finish last on this track and the one who marks their territory the best becomes top cat.
One of the toughest drivers on the tour, Kevin Harvick (8/1), finally won at Bristol in this race last season. We say “Finally” because it was always his destiny to do well on these types of tracks and I believe I chose him to win in almost all 10 of the races he started there, so I had a rooting interest. Finally it paid off last season, but he had several near misses in between. In 10 career Cup races, Harvick finished in the top 5 five times and he had two other instances where he didn’t finish in the top 5 but did have the best car.
With all that said, Harvick’s status with the team is up in the air coming into Sunday’s race. This race could be pivotal to the future of Harvick and where he ends up for the 2007 season.
“We’ve kind of agreed to sit down in April and evaluate where things are,” said Harvick. “I’m not going to rush into things and do things I don’t want to do. I think right now we are in the same frame of mind about our goals, and our goals are to go out and get the season going on a good note and make the Chase. All the rest of it, the paper stuff, is something that’s not high on the list right now.”
Rumors have Harvick all set to jump into the new Toyota Camry when Toyota makes their debut on the Cup series next year. Other rumors have said the car owner of the GM Goodwrech Chevrolet, Richard Childress, has just about gone to the end of his rope with Harvick and that Harvick leaving is a done deal regardless of how well he performs this week.
Both rumors may have some validity, especially considering the way that Harvick’s teammate Jeff Burton (12/1) has run in the other Childress car. Burton’s strong run started at the end of last season and has rolled into the beginning of 2006. Coincidentally, the luck started turning for Burton when he had a strong second place finish in the fall Bristol race under the lights.
There have been whispers about Childress shifting the power structure of his organization from Harvick to Burton. Harvick is always getting into trouble by wearing his emotions on his sleeves and has embarrassed the Childress group on several occasions, while Burton is the epitome of a class act. However, don’t misinterpret Burton’s “class act” for being soft or weak on the tough track of Bristol. He’s still got enough rattlesnake in him to ruffle some feathers on the pavement.
We’re going to look for both Harvick and Burton to run great this week with Burton getting a slight edge. It’s likely that there will be several variations in Burton’s odds to win prices starting with the low end of 12 to 1. Shop around and get the best value. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Burton was found in the 25 to 1 range simply because he hasn’t won a race in so long. Burton’s last win was in 2001 at Phoenix. For his career he has totaled 17 wins, all of which came driving for Jack Roush.
There is a duo from another organization that needs to be looked at closely because they probably should have swept the season last year. Matt Kenseth (8/1) dominated the fall Bristol race like I haven’t seen many do before. Greg Biffle had some failed pit strategy in the later stages of the Spring race that allowed Harvick to win. Biffle finished ninth in that race then went on to finish third in the fall. Despite looking meek while getting choked by Harvick, Biffle has a whole lotta’ Wolverine in him.
The Kenseth win last season was car owner Jack Roush’s seventh win at Bristol. Four of the wins came from the estranged Kurt Busch with Mark Martin taking the other two checkers home. Jimmy Fennig is still the crew chief for the old Kurt Busch team that Jamie McMurray (15/1) is now piloting. McMurray’s best Bristol finish came his rookie year with a third place finish. The old Kurt Busch team doesn’t look the same, so I am still a bit leery of McMurray right now, but knowing that Fennig is still there and he’s the guy who got Roush six of those Bristol wins makes it a bit easier to take one more shot with J-Mac.
Kurt Busch is now driving the Penske Dodge which has been awful so far. Rusty Wallace always ran well at Bristol which should be comforting to Busch who has proven already that he is pretty good on the high banks of Bristol. Be cautious of match-ups involving Busch; He’s a wild card. I could see him winning just as easy as I could see him finish three laps down in 31st place.
Tony Stewart (9/1) has one career win at Bristol and has always looked strong in practice times, but he finds trouble, or vice-versa. Last season he stayed clear of trouble and wound up with a third and an eighth place finish. Prior to those runs, Stewarts best finish since his one and only win there in 2001 came in 2002 with a 15th place finish. Stewart is going through a frustration phase right now is like a Bull in the China shop. If I was Kyle Busch, who seems to be driver #1 on Tony’s chump list, I would stay as far away from Stewart as possible during this race because incidental contact is made to look easy on this track. Because of Stewart’s current state of anger, it may be wise to stay away from him or bet against in match-ups.
Jeff Gordon (9/1) is only a five-time winner at the track with his last win coming in 2002 there. He is definitely on an upswing and there is a lot of value with him in odds to win. His best Bristol run since that win was a sixth in the fall race last season.
Kenny Schrader (100/1) might be a nice long shot to take a look at in the No. 21 Wood Brothers Ford. The team hasn’t performed very well this season, but Bristol is a track where they have always done well at, even in this modern era of multi-car teams, a period in the Wood brother’s history where they have been far less successful. Ricky Rudd finished fourth in the fall race last season and their last win as a team came with Elliott Sadler in 2001 at Bristol. He is a real long shot to win, but should present great value in match-ups simply because of how bad they have been this season.
Looking to bounce back with a better average.