What the stats say...
In order of who has the best finishing average of active drivers at Darlington.
It's noteable how low Bowyer, Kyle, Harvick, Roush and RPM drivers all rank on this track.
1) Hamlin's best track statistically (only 5 starts). Equal with Martinsville at 6.6 avg, and just a little better than he is at Richmond. He's had 2 top 5s and 4 top 10s from his 5 starts, including the win last year. He qualifies only a little better than his career average here, at 12.8.
2) Johnson does not generally qualify well here. Might be worth waiting until after qualifying to back him. It's his 5th best track for results, with 2 wins and 9 top 10s from 12 starts and an average finish of 9.3. He crashed out last year but finished 2nd to Martin in 2009.
3) Bill Elliot
4) Kesolowski. Only 2 starts. 7th for Hendrick in 2009 and 12th for Penske last year.
5) Gordon's best track for qualifying and 8th best for results with an average of 11th. Finished top 5 here the last 7 years in a row (with 1 win in that time). I'll probably grab some Jeff as soon as the openers show up this week.
6) Burton's 2nd best track (after Vegas) with an average finish of 11.4. Although he has qualified top 10 only once in his last 17 starts here, he has strung together 4 top 10s and a 12th from his last 5 outings. If he does his usual poor qualifying effort and is some value for a Top 10 late I might have a lash on him.
7) Martin's win 2 years ago was his only top 5 finish in his last 5 starts here. Overall he qualifies a little below average at Darlington, and it's his 8th best track for results, with 2 wins and 17 top 5s from 44 starts for an average finish of 12.2
8) Newman both qualifies and finishes at much better than his average here at 8.8 and 12.2. He has 6 top 5s from 12 attempts, with a 9th and a 4th the last 2 years for Stewart Haas.
9) Stewart has 9 top 10s from 18 starts, including a 3rd on debut for Stewart Haas in 2009... but overall Darlington rates below average for him in both quali and results at 17.6 and 12.6.
10) Truex
11) Biffle's 2nd best track for qualifying and 8th best for results with an average finish of 14.8. He had back to back race wins in 05 and 06, followed by back to back front row starts in 07 and 08. In 2009 he started 11th and finished 8th... and last year was poor for all the Roush drivers here. Overall I see that as a more solid history than a couple of the higher ranked drivers, and if the Roush cars look good in practice The Biff could be the man from that team to back this week.
12) McMurray
13) Dale Jr. had a string of top 10s here with DEI, and qualified front row and finished 4th on debut for Hendrick in 2008... but like most other tracks, has been anonymous here for the last 2 years. He has 7 top 10s from 16 starts and an average finish of 15.2... which puts the track better than average for both quali and results for Junior.
14) Edwards
15) Labonte
16) Kahne
17) Kurt Busch
18) Kenseth
19) Montoya
20) Logano
21) Kyle Busch ranks so low because he has alternated a poor finish with a good finish for his 6 starts here. So he has a 3 out of 6 record of top 10s, and a win in 2008, but the off years drag his career average finish down to 18.2. Last year he came 7th, so if history is any guide he is due for a bad one this week.
22) Harvick
23) Ragan
27) Reutimann
28) Bowyer
36) Menard
38) Ambrose
39) Allmendinger
I might have a look at some of the others later on.
In order of who has the best finishing average of active drivers at Darlington.
It's noteable how low Bowyer, Kyle, Harvick, Roush and RPM drivers all rank on this track.
1) Hamlin's best track statistically (only 5 starts). Equal with Martinsville at 6.6 avg, and just a little better than he is at Richmond. He's had 2 top 5s and 4 top 10s from his 5 starts, including the win last year. He qualifies only a little better than his career average here, at 12.8.
2) Johnson does not generally qualify well here. Might be worth waiting until after qualifying to back him. It's his 5th best track for results, with 2 wins and 9 top 10s from 12 starts and an average finish of 9.3. He crashed out last year but finished 2nd to Martin in 2009.
3) Bill Elliot
4) Kesolowski. Only 2 starts. 7th for Hendrick in 2009 and 12th for Penske last year.
5) Gordon's best track for qualifying and 8th best for results with an average of 11th. Finished top 5 here the last 7 years in a row (with 1 win in that time). I'll probably grab some Jeff as soon as the openers show up this week.
6) Burton's 2nd best track (after Vegas) with an average finish of 11.4. Although he has qualified top 10 only once in his last 17 starts here, he has strung together 4 top 10s and a 12th from his last 5 outings. If he does his usual poor qualifying effort and is some value for a Top 10 late I might have a lash on him.
7) Martin's win 2 years ago was his only top 5 finish in his last 5 starts here. Overall he qualifies a little below average at Darlington, and it's his 8th best track for results, with 2 wins and 17 top 5s from 44 starts for an average finish of 12.2
8) Newman both qualifies and finishes at much better than his average here at 8.8 and 12.2. He has 6 top 5s from 12 attempts, with a 9th and a 4th the last 2 years for Stewart Haas.
9) Stewart has 9 top 10s from 18 starts, including a 3rd on debut for Stewart Haas in 2009... but overall Darlington rates below average for him in both quali and results at 17.6 and 12.6.
10) Truex
11) Biffle's 2nd best track for qualifying and 8th best for results with an average finish of 14.8. He had back to back race wins in 05 and 06, followed by back to back front row starts in 07 and 08. In 2009 he started 11th and finished 8th... and last year was poor for all the Roush drivers here. Overall I see that as a more solid history than a couple of the higher ranked drivers, and if the Roush cars look good in practice The Biff could be the man from that team to back this week.
12) McMurray
13) Dale Jr. had a string of top 10s here with DEI, and qualified front row and finished 4th on debut for Hendrick in 2008... but like most other tracks, has been anonymous here for the last 2 years. He has 7 top 10s from 16 starts and an average finish of 15.2... which puts the track better than average for both quali and results for Junior.
14) Edwards
15) Labonte
16) Kahne
17) Kurt Busch
18) Kenseth
19) Montoya
20) Logano
21) Kyle Busch ranks so low because he has alternated a poor finish with a good finish for his 6 starts here. So he has a 3 out of 6 record of top 10s, and a win in 2008, but the off years drag his career average finish down to 18.2. Last year he came 7th, so if history is any guide he is due for a bad one this week.
22) Harvick
23) Ragan
27) Reutimann
28) Bowyer
36) Menard
38) Ambrose
39) Allmendinger
I might have a look at some of the others later on.
Probably won't happen this week. Both drivers are on secret double probation.
