Texas - Time to go big!

[Optional]

Ok NASCAR fans, help me out this week.

I really enjoyed that early Top 3 parlay only market on BetFair last race, so am going to have a little plunge this week.

I think I can afford to take 10 or 12 drivers for a top 3, aiming for a $333 payout on each one for around $100 outlay. (if I pick my parlays well in the lead up days)

So possible $1000 pickup if you can help me nab all 3. Which is 5 times more than I have won on a single race before.

I usually risk no more than 30 or 40 bucks per race, so 100 is a plunge for me.

So which 10 drivers do I take guys?

[ATP123]

is there a certain list of matchups your doing or just any ten? I remember last years race and the busch brothers dominated, stewart had the pole here earlier this year and had his moments but Gordon was the dominant car.

[Optional]

Not a list of matchups. An Australian bookmaker offers parlay lines through betfair. They have had a Top 3 market up as an option by Tuesday the last 2 weeks, with really generous prices (imho). You can't straight bet them, so the last 2 weeks I have made a bunch of small parlay bets with soccer games in the lead up.

If I can parlay Biffle with a couple of soccer plays successfully, I could have him to pay the $330 for a top 3 with maybe as little as a $5 outlay, for example.

It's a fun little game anyway. And I like that nice round target of 1000 bucks.

[ATP123]

so your just looking for a top3 finish and you want to know the top ten guys that may do that? i didnt check the odds but seriously kyle was going to win last yr without the gas problem, i wouldnt leave him out of it.

[Optional]

Here is what I am thinking so far. Haven't handicapped the race properly yet though.

Definites; Kyle, Kurt, Smoke, Gordon
Probably; JJ, Hamlin, Edwards, Biffle, Kenseth, Reutimann
Maybe; Burton, Bowyer, Martin, McMurray and Montoya
Longshots; Menard, Dinger

[hawk 5]

What do you think JJ, Hamlin, and Edwards mind frame is going to be for this race? Take chances and go for it, or take 4 tires at the end when everyone else takes 2? All 3 may point race and hope one of the other 2 has problems.

[hawk 5]

Kenseth

[ATP123]

poss truex

[avssakic]

Kahne usually runs well here and might have something to prove with his new team, might be hit or miss though

[Optional]

Thanks guys.

Good points Hawk. I would love to be able to leave those 3 out, and that sounds like a good reason to maybe do it.

[rickie65]

for what it's worth....Smoke hasn't had a top 3 in the last 7 Texas races, though he has run pretty well. I would have Harvick in there too as he lately seems to be able to finish well even without the best car.

[shock11]

at 5dimes you can do nascar top 5 in parleys

[hawk 5]

Kahne usually runs well here and might have something to prove with his new team, might be hit or miss though

Seems like Vickers usually ran good here in that car. I need to look that up.

[onesite]

I would definitely include JJ among the 10 and I would definitely don't even consider Dinger. By the way "Optional", let us know at the end how did you do with the picks...

[avssakic]

I do remember vickers running well here but always had problems with his car failing

[ATP123]

was this the track where ambrose was running up front for a while before a tire went down?

[Optional]

Think that may have been Homestead last year you're thinking of ATP?

@Shock. 5D put the lines up so late I can't spend a few days finding good parlays and knowing what you have and haven't got before the race.

That said... the market hasn't gone up so far this week on Betfair.

I'm wondering if my 30 odd bets last week alerted them that the deal might be a little too good. The prices have seemed to be a little too good to be true the last 2 weeks to me.

Fingers crossed they keep offering it.

[ATP123]

What do you think JJ, Hamlin, and Edwards mind frame is going to be for this race? Take chances and go for it, or take 4 tires at the end when everyone else takes 2? All 3 may point race and hope one of the other 2 has problems.

think its harvick you mean there not edwards.

[hawk 5]

think its harvick you mean there not edwards.

Your right. Don't know where I got Edwards.

[sideloaded]

anyone bet nationwide or trucks?

[hawk 5]

Taking JJ at +450 and Hamlin at +650. These 2 will spent most if not all of 1st practice in qualifying trim. If they put there cars in top 5 these will be good numbers. Will add 2 more.

[Optional]

anyone bet nationwide or trucks?

5 dimes has a market up for the Nationwide/Cup double. Was thinking of a flutter on Kyle.

[sideloaded]

Ive found bodog of all people have the best lines for trucks and nationwide. Its the american facing bodog.

[Optional]

Do they have top 5 and top 10 markets?

[sideloaded]

Do they have top 5 and top 10 markets?

No but they have head to head and top 3. but these are posted very late.

[Optional]

Same as just about every book outside UK it seems.

Bwin get their markets up early and Betfair get started on Wednesdays, but there is almost no action there until an hour or two before the race anyway. That's why I loved this top 3 parlay only market that came up Wednesday the last 2 races.

Wouldn't you know that just as I plan to hit it, they haven't offered the market at all this week.

Think I'll tail Hawk's lead and grab the two faves early for now.

[your pixel army]

Martin gets his first win of the year -- Count it.

[avssakic]

ha yea right that old man needs to retire, he's like the favre of nascar

[sideloaded]

Tough race to cap, I grabbed some underdogs, Greg Biffle, Tony Stewart, and Kyle Busch.

[hawk 5]

Tough race to cap, I grabbed some underdogs, Greg Biffle, Tony Stewart, and Kyle Busch.

Really like Stewart and Kyle. Might want to watch Kurt too.

[ATP123]

read local paper said stewart has led most laps there over such a period of time and of the chasers harvick has led the least. really thinking about this the tracks where kurt has been good are the 1.5's and it just so happens that mcmurray has been running lights out on those same tracks this year, he may be worth a stab at whatever odds their offering.

[avssakic]

Mcmurray is worth a look as well

[sideloaded]

ford looks really strong.

[your pixel army]

ha yea right that old man needs to retire, he's like the favre of nascar

If I had points to throw on it---you'd have me.

----MARTIN outruns anybody this week at Texas.

[your pixel army]

18pts. ---- Martin under 3.5

-- I'm *EDIT "in the mood" and you ain't got nothin- to lose-----Except 18 points bitches! Let's go Mark!! First to take the challenge can feel free to deposit 18 points to my SBR account whenever they want.