California

your pixel army · 10-07-10, 12:30 PM

That's really a hard question to answer. Because you start going through all these scenarios in your head... "what if Kenseth gets on his horse?", "maybe Harvick decides to make a statement this week", "the Fords are pretty strong.. they have to be able to fight for the win", "it could come down to a fuel mileage race, perhaps someone not in the championship hunt gambles?!"

And then after all that... Jimmie Johnson still owns this place and leads 200 laps on Sunday.

sideloaded · 10-07-10, 03:37 PM

Jimmie Johnson will struggle to get a top 10.

Optional · 10-07-10, 04:09 PM

Originally posted by hawk 5

Not a good week to gamble NASCAR. Like the Fords. Maybe Harvick. How much do you gamble against Jimmie? Still thinking.

No matter how good Jimmie is here +225 is so far under true odds the +EV play is definitely to bet against him.

JG, KH, TS, Kurt and MK are all over the odds, so we could split our money between them and be on the right side of the probabilities.

It's a bit harder if you like Edwards, Biffle or Kyle as your man to beat Jimmie though.

I am hoping practice helps me work out something.

Have a good gut feel about Harvick and Kenseth. And Mark Martin for a top 10.

hawk 5 · 10-07-10, 08:23 PM

Originally posted by your pixel army

That's really a hard question to answer. Because you start going through all these scenarios in your head... "what if Kenseth gets on his horse?", "maybe Harvick decides to make a statement this week", "the Fords are pretty strong.. they have to be able to fight for the win", "it could come down to a fuel mileage race, perhaps someone not in the championship hunt gambles?!"

And then after all that... Jimmie Johnson still owns this place and leads 200 laps on Sunday.

exactly.

avssakic · 10-08-10, 12:10 AM

if johnson has a dominant car I might just load up on him and no one else

hawk 5 · 10-08-10, 06:22 AM

Call me stupid but, Kenseth +1600 and Edwards +850. Went small. See what happens tonight.

hawk 5 · 10-08-10, 06:24 AM

Originally posted by avssakic

if johnson has a dominant car I might just load up on him and no one else

Can't see the number getting much lower. Probably the right way to go.

hawk 5 · 10-08-10, 06:31 AM

Adding Jimmie at +300 from Looselines. Put enough on him to cover other bets. What can I say. Will add 1 more.

Jay Price · 10-08-10, 07:10 AM

Originally posted by hawk 5

Adding Jimmie at +300 from Looselines. Put enough on him to cover other bets. What can I say. Will add 1 more.

Good move

Wish I could get that price

sideloaded · 10-09-10, 04:07 AM

Biffle looks super strong.

hawk 5 · 10-09-10, 06:23 AM

Originally posted by sideloaded

Biffle looks super strong.

Yes he does.

rickie65 · 10-09-10, 01:58 PM

Kenseth NEVER qualifies well but is starting 3rd, Jamie Mac on the pole, both looked good in practice. as of now I think I'll play them both this weekend

avssakic · 10-09-10, 03:00 PM

yea when kenseth qualifies well look out

Optional · 10-09-10, 04:22 PM

I'm thinking Biffle, Gordon and Kenseth, plus might throw a dollar on Mark Martin to pull the upset as he is at such good odds.

hawk 5 · 10-10-10, 09:17 AM

Need 1 more. Biffle, low odds, Harvick, good odds but way back. McMurray, good odds and starts up from but doesn't win much. Glad I've got some time.

rickie65 · 10-10-10, 12:01 PM

have winners kenseth +1600 and Mac at +1150. and harvick top 5 at +160.

and trying a head to head parlay at around +1050
harvick over kurt b
stewart over kurt b
burton over kahne
mac over montoya
mac over bowyer

hawk 5 · 10-10-10, 01:45 PM

Biffle +600. GL all.

Optional · 10-10-10, 02:11 PM

Having trouble getting matched this week. Think I got too greedy with early offers.

Took Johnson +350 2.5u
And have Martin +4000

But still trying to get on Biffle and Kenseth

Optional · 10-10-10, 02:14 PM

Biffle +560
Kenseth +820

Good luck everyone