NASCAR - RICHMOND - 1st impressions

[rickie65]

just thought I'd toss out there who I'm leaning towards BEFORE practices/qualifying, includes DSI / BetJamaica odds:

Hamlin +640 / +450, J Gordon +990 / +800, Kyle Busch +425 / +400, Stewart +950 / +1000.

Martin +3300 / +3500 has done well here too but I'm just not trusting him as much right now.

[SaviorTebow]

Hamlin and Bowyer will be the major players this weekend. Book it.

[hawk 5]

Got to take Hamlin. Kyle Is favorite. Like Burton and Gordon

[Jay Price]

Hit Stewart last weekend picking three futures, so I'll roll on. My picks for RIC are:

Jeff Gordon +950
Kurt Busch +1700
Jeff Burton +1900

[avssakic]

Im liking ky busch, hamlin, bowyer

[Jay Price]

Im liking ky busch, hamlin, bowyer

These three are looking like sweep contenders for the weekend after the Cup's 1st practice.

[Jay Price]

Johnson (if he can get the RIR monkey off his back) and McMurray looking like contenders for the win, too.

Long shot on Reutimann?

Opti, will you post your +EV analysis?

[Optional]

Yeah, very soon, and will get the game up too. Got caught up in the F1 race practice last night (my time), then went to bed early for a change. It's about 7.00am here now.

Not sure I need to do the work this week though, pretty sure it's going to be the Denny and Kyle show.

Why are people extra hot for Bowyer this week?

[Jay Price]

Yeah, very soon, and will get the game up too. Got caught up in the F1 race practice last night (my time), then went to bed early for a change. It's about 7.00am here now.

Not sure I need to do the work this week though, pretty sure it's going to be the Denny and Kyle show.

Why are people extra hot for Bowyer this week?

Yeah, Kyle and Hamlin should rule the roost. I didn't see much value in a future bet with them, but will probably put a price on a head-to-head match up versus one of the two.

Bowyer has been fast in practice, but his car will more than likely go away from him some in the race. He's had a lot of problems keeping his right front in decent shape, despite his good finishes lately. I think they put waaaaay too much camber in their set up, which hurts them the longer the race unfolds. A top ten finish is more likely.

I'm really liking McMurray after practices, despite his poor record at the track--and I think the elder Busch brother will contend at the end.

Edit: Nice Q run McMurray

[SaviorTebow]

Why are people extra hot for Bowyer this week?

I like Clint every week... I am a fan after all

[Optional]

Here's the list of drivers with a better quali and result record than their career average. First number is how much better they qualify at Richmond and second is how much better their results are.

Kyle Busch 38% 189% <-- not an error
Denny Hamlin 95% 61%
Marcos Ambrose 15% 56%
Clint Bowyer 4% 53%
Ryan Newman 10% 49%
Kevin Harvick 1% 27%
Mark Martin 17% 12%
David Reutimann 28% 11%
Jeff Burton 49% 10%
David Ragan 19% 0%

Some other interesting stats;


Kyle has 9 top 5s from 11 starts here and it's his best track with a an average finish of 5.5.

It's also Bowyers best track, Newman and Ambrose's second best, and Junior's 3rd best.

It's Edwards best track for qualifying, as evidenced by his pole, but his average results here kinda suck.

[hawk 5]

Jimmie +770, Hamlin +660.

[rickie65]

I keep checking that SBR Sportsbook, but once again no Nascar....how disappointing.

[Jay Price]

In addition to the futures I wagered on earlier in the thread (which have much better odds now ), below are my plays for tonight, each at two units a pop:

Hamlin/Ky Busch/Johnson to win +210
Kurt Busch under 10.5 +105
Jimmie Johnson under 6.5 -120
Jamie McMurray over Matt Kenseth +115
Clint Bowyer over Juan Pablo Montoya -105
Kurt Busch over Carl Edwards +168
Jamie McMurray top 10 +235
Kasey Kahne top 10 +155


These short-track races are harder to cap consistently in my opinion, yet I give them the most action

[Optional]

In addition to the futures I wagered on earlier in the thread (which have much better odds now ), below are my plays for tonight, each at two units a pop:

Hamlin/Ky Busch/Johnson to win +210
Kurt Busch under 10.5 +105
Jimmie Johnson under 6.5 -120
Jamie McMurray over Matt Kenseth +115
Clint Bowyer over Juan Pablo Montoya -105
Kurt Busch over Carl Edwards +168

These short-track races are harder to cap consistently in my opinion, yet I give them the most action

Too many options means more betting opportunities?

[Optional]

I've gone with a 5 leg multi;

Hamlin > Johnson -115
Stewart > Harvick -116
Burton > Kurt B -124
Reutimann > Kenseth -122
Newman > McMurray -122

For a payout of +1983

And 1 unit on Smoke +1200 to make it 2 in a row.

Good luck everyone.

[gummo]

Isnt hamlin always pretty solid here? I have him at +620

[gummo]

Kyle B is favored to win the race but Hamlin is favored over him in their matchup. haha

[SaviorTebow]

Newman > McMurray -122

Wow that is really great value. I would have pounded that harder than the prom queen.

[hawk 5]

adding Edwards +800 and Kahne + 3400

[SaviorTebow]

Isnt hamlin always pretty solid here? I have him at +620

Yes, Hamlin will be a major player tonight. Good Luck on your bet

[Optional]

Isnt hamlin always pretty solid here? I have him at +620

Denny and Kyle should be the men here for sure.

[Optional]

Wow that is really great value. I would have pounded that harder than the prom queen.

But of course McMurray starts the race like a killer after looking like lamb in practice!

Great race so far

[gummo]

Congrats to the Hamlin bettors! (Including myself haha)

[Jay Price]

Let it rain Gummo!

I will place my mortgage on the Gibbs cars for the next short track race. Does this make it 10 out of the last 11?

[Optional]

All 3 JGR cars were awesome. Ambrose was amazing in that last 30 laps too. They kept saying Logano was rolling out fastest laps, but Ambrose made up 2 seconds on him and I bet would have got him if it went another 4 or 5 laps.

Looks like just about everyone cashed tonight... apart from me.

Congrats all.