Sprint Cup 2010 - Carfax 400 - Michigan

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  • Optional
    Administrator
    • 06-10-10
    • 61508

    #1
    Sprint Cup 2010 - Carfax 400 - Michigan
    Hope you don't mind me starting the thread this week Onlooker.

    My handicapping model shows Jeff Gordon as head and shoulders above the rest as favorite, with Kurt Busch, Hamlin and Burton looking most likely to fight it out for 2nd.

    That's based almost purely on stats, and before we see practice/qualifying.
    Big change from last race when there was about 6 good chances.


    Here is the list of drivers who have better Qualifying and Race results at Michigan than their overall average. (first number is how much better they qualify, and second is how better their results are)

    Only 2 current chase drivers make the list this week;

    Logano 33% 43%
    Ragan 7% 18%
    Kahne 10% 18%
    Hamlin 4% 18%
    Reutimann 12% 15%
    Truex 24% 13%
    J Gordon 4% 11%
    Dale Jr. 15% 8%
    Sadler 10% 2%

    Michigan is also the 2nd, 3rd and 4th best track, results wise, for Edwards, Kenseth and Biffle respectively... but weirdly, it's near Edwards' worst track for qualifying, and below average for the other 2 as well.

    Based on my ratings the bookmakers have Johnson, Hamlin and Kyle Busch at least 50% below their true odds, but are offering over the odds on Burton, Stewart, Edwards and Montoya.

    Best value bet so far looks to be Dale Jr. at +4000, who I rate a +2000 chance. (I rate JG to win as a +900 chance by comparison)

    I also like the look of Kurt Bush's form here, and current form in general, so if he practices better than JG and Hamlin, I might end up backing him.

    All the Toyotas need to be kept safe too. Apart from Denny and Kyle, Logano has top 10s in his last 2 starts here, and both Truex and Reutimann have good personal records here.

    Unless Jimmie Johnson practices very well, I will likely lay against him, as he is so far under the odds.
    .
  • SaviorTebow
    SBR High Roller
    • 07-20-10
    • 219

    #2
    I think all 3 Childress cars will be strong. And Jimmie Johnson will for sure be a contender on Sunday. With the possibility of this being a fuel mileage race, might be worth it to place a small wager on an underdog. Somebody like Truex with nothing to lose by staying out on low fuel trying to win.

    Wouldn't touch Gordon. He and Stewart are the most overvalued drivers in the sport. Wouldn't touch either with a 10 foot pole.
    Comment
    • Optional
      Administrator
      • 06-10-10
      • 61508

      #3
      I usually avoid Gordon like the plague too.

      Jimmie has 1 top 5 from his last 10 tries here. And could be thinking more about ensuring the team peaks for the chase than these last few races imho. He's always a genuine chance to win of course, but a +400 favorite seems out of proportion to me. maybe it's because the public sees a lack of other obvious chances to beat him this week I'm thinking.
      .
      Comment
      • hawk 5
        SBR MVP
        • 09-12-06
        • 3982

        #4
        Well, here's for 10 foot poles, Gordon +1050 and Edwards +1500. Will add 2 more.
        Comment
        • rickie65
          SBR MVP
          • 08-27-07
          • 2895

          #5
          Originally posted by Optional
          My handicapping model shows Jeff Gordon as head and shoulders above the rest as favorite, with Kurt Busch, Hamlin and Burton looking most likely to fight it out for 2nd.
          I see Gordon and Edwards as my clear top 2. Logano my dark horse.
          Comment
          • Optional
            Administrator
            • 06-10-10
            • 61508

            #6
            Anyone else watching practice?

            Sounds like Biffle is looking like a potential contender off the truck.
            .
            Comment
            • hawk 5
              SBR MVP
              • 09-12-06
              • 3982

              #7
              Originally posted by Optional
              Anyone else watching practice?

              Sounds like Biffle is looking like a potential contender off the truck.
              At the moment he would have been a much better pick for me than Edwards. Still have 2 picks left, I missed bad on my 1st 2.
              Comment
              • Optional
                Administrator
                • 06-10-10
                • 61508

                #8
                Originally posted by hawk 5
                At the moment he would have been a much better pick for me than Edwards. Still have 2 picks left, I missed bad on my 1st 2.
                Yeah, looks like Saviour's ten foot pole advice for Gordon might have been good after all. Although he did practice very well in Happy Hour, 3rd fastest and 4th best average times.

                I'm leaning toward the RCR guys now, like he said too.

                Burton is only +700 where I have money, but see him at +1500 and as high as +2800 at Skybet. I want a piece of that!
                .
                Comment
                • SaviorTebow
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 07-20-10
                  • 219

                  #9
                  I don't think Burton is worth 7-1 odds, but finding him at 15-1 is definitely good value.
                  Comment
                  • Optional
                    Administrator
                    • 06-10-10
                    • 61508

                    #10
                    Originally posted by SaviorTebow
                    I don't think Burton is worth 7-1 odds, but finding him at 15-1 is definitely good value.
                    Agree. I have an offer up on Betfair to back him at 15-1, hopefully I'll get matched.

                    I stuffed up though. I put a couple of early offers up on Gordon and Kurt Busch too, and forgot about them, so now I own win bets I don't really want on;

                    Gordon +1200
                    Kurt B +1050

                    I might just try to lay them off at the same odds.
                    .
                    Comment
                    • Jay Price
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 07-10-10
                      • 284

                      #11
                      I've thrown more coin at this race than usual. May toss another pick in there as the race gets nearer and more options become available. Here are my plays thus far:

                      Jeff Gordon top 10 finish +130 (3.0 units)
                      Jeff Gordon to win +2000 (1.0 units)
                      K. Harvick top 5 finish +185 (2.0 units)
                      J. Burton top 5 finish +185 (2.0 units)
                      C. Bowyer top 10 finish -105 (2.0 units)
                      Kasey Kahne over Greg Biffle -105 (1.0 units)
                      Dale Earnhardt Jr. top 10 finish +330 (1.0 units)

                      Good luck all.
                      Comment
                      • mart59a
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 01-21-10
                        • 936

                        #12
                        Is Biffle worth a shot?
                        Comment
                        • Jay Price
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 07-10-10
                          • 284

                          #13
                          Originally posted by mart59a
                          Is Biffle worth a shot?
                          Heck yeah! Second favorite in most books right now. He's been on a super run of late.
                          Comment
                          • mart59a
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 01-21-10
                            • 936

                            #14
                            Originally posted by dew22
                            Heck yeah! Second favorite in most books right now. He's been on a super run of late.
                            Comment
                            • hawk 5
                              SBR MVP
                              • 09-12-06
                              • 3982

                              #15
                              Just took The Biff at +850. Will add 1 more.
                              Comment
                              • Optional
                                Administrator
                                • 06-10-10
                                • 61508

                                #16
                                Originally posted by dew22
                                Jeff Gordon top 10 finish +130 (3.0 units)
                                Love that one. Like just about all your other plays too.



                                Added Harvick +1300, Burton +1000 and a minimum bet on Dale Jr +5000.

                                Also marvel at my huge steel balls... lay against Jimmie at +310
                                .
                                Comment
                                • onlooker
                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                  • 08-10-05
                                  • 36572

                                  #17
                                  I don't mind, just been busy. Thanks for starting it.

                                  Jimmie Johnson +415
                                  Greg Biffle +750
                                  Carl Edwards +1100
                                  Comment
                                  • hawk 5
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 09-12-06
                                    • 3982

                                    #18
                                    Good get on JJ looker. I can't get anything decent on him so I'm passing. Harvick +1300 for my finale pick. GL all.
                                    Comment
                                    • hawk 5
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 09-12-06
                                      • 3982

                                      #19
                                      1 more small wager, Kahn +3100 for 10$. What the hell.
                                      Comment
                                      • Optional
                                        Administrator
                                        • 06-10-10
                                        • 61508

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by hawk 5
                                        1 more small wager, Kahn +3100 for 10$. What the hell.
                                        Wow, that was definitely worth grabbing. He's under +1100 most places.
                                        .
                                        Comment
                                        • Jay Price
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 07-10-10
                                          • 284

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by hawk 5
                                          1 more small wager, Kahn +3100 for 10$. What the hell.
                                          Amazing price there! Great find.
                                          Comment
                                          • avssakic
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 12-12-07
                                            • 1795

                                            #22
                                            Good job harvick backers!
                                            Comment
                                            • Jay Price
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 07-10-10
                                              • 284

                                              #23
                                              Congrats to the winners. Harvick could really carry a boatload of speed coming out of the corners. Impressive.

                                              I took a bit of beating with my bets after J. Gordon went down with a cut tire. He was coming on very strong, but alas, that Hendrick's crew have burned me badly the last three weekends whether directly or indirectly. They owe me! Outside the top three, that race shook out kind of weird the last 50 laps or so.

                                              Oh well, on to Bristol. The Bullring always provides some surprises. Again, congrats to the winners
                                              Comment
                                              • hawk 5
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 09-12-06
                                                • 3982

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by hawk 5
                                                Good get on JJ looker. I can't get anything decent on him so I'm passing. Harvick +1300 for my finale pick. GL all.
                                                cool
                                                Comment
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