F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix - Sunday April 29th 06-10 EST

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • semibluff
    SBR MVP
    • 04-12-16
    • 1515

    #1
    F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix - Sunday April 29th 06-10 EST
    Post P1 & P2 Red Bull looks the quickest car over 1 lap. It also looks as good as the Ferrari and better than the Mercedes on race pace. Daniel Ricciardo was absolutely on top form. I know Ferrari and Mercedes have their engines turned down for practice but Ricciardo is significantly overpriced for the race win, a podium, and probably pole position. Ferrari doesn't look bad but they are noticeably slower on the straight, which is the longest straight in F1. After any safety car laps they could be sitting ducks. Ignore Vettel's P2 time. He only attempted 1 quick lap which was compromised. Kimi Räikkönen has looked every bit as quick as Vettel, (yet again). Räikkönen's P2 time was assisted by drafting. The car wasn't genuinely that quick. Max Verstappen crashed in P1 and looked erratic in P2. He finished with an engine problem and limped back to the pits. You back him at your peril. He's looked the most suspect of the big 6 so even if his car is 100%. According to Force India, (Mercedes engine customer), the engine has upgrade modes for this race. It's possible the Mercedes was sand-bagging but I don't think they are. Hamilton hasn't looked quicker than Bottas and that was true in the last 3 races as well. Force India look to be in a very tight 4-way battle behind the big 3 teams. Force India might very well have leaped from 7th to 4th with Renault struggling and going from 4th to 7th. Force India - McLaren - Haas - Renault will probably be within 0.25 of a second for qualifying. No guarantees but possible value on Force India and bad value on Renault for a top 10 finish*. Elsewhere Toro Roso, Sauber, and Williams struggled. Haas handled beautifully but wasn't overly fast with Kevin Magnussen streets ahead of Romain Grosjean.

    I like Daniel Ricciardo (+500) for the win. (+550 in 3 places). Probably should be +380. I like him for a podium (+120 or +125) should be -110. I wouldn't dissuade anyone from taking +200 on Kimi Räikkönen who should be +170 for a podium, but Riccardo is a much better bet. As ever P3 and Qualifying tomorrow could make me look very silly.

    *Update. I see no value in Ocon, (Force India), at -170 for a top 10 finish.

    Avoid: Hamilton is way too short at +140 for the win. Vettel is also too short at +250. Verstappen could win but I don't like him at -400 to finish in the top 10, (crash or reliability issues).

    1 word of caution - wind. There are high winds predicted for Sunday. If that happens everything is a total crap-shoot.

    Later edit: thread title should say 08:10 EST not 06:10. Maybe a kind mod will edit it.
  • Optional
    Administrator
    • 06-10-10
    • 61515

    #2
    Agree Ricciardo looking on top form.

    With tyre graining issues and so many teams have mostly ultra softs, plus the walls and lack of run off, I'm thinking we might see a longshot for fast lap.
    .
    Comment
    • 5mike5
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 09-21-11
      • 52006

      #3
      just a couple FL bets for me

      Riccardo +750

      Kimi +1000
      Comment
      • unlearn
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 03-22-14
        • 9037

        #4
        Lol Danica Riccardo
        Comment
        • unlearn
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 03-22-14
          • 9037

          #5
          Bottas blows a tire in the lead with 3 to go and Lewis gets the win. Bottas fast lap and Red Bulls wrecked each other. As exciting an F1 race as you'll see
          Comment
          • 5mike5
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 09-21-11
            • 52006

            #6
            ive only watched a couple of seasons but that was the best F1 race I have personally ever seen
            Comment
            • Optional
              Administrator
              • 06-10-10
              • 61515

              #7
              It was an exciting race. Kinda shitty betting wise though :\
              .
              Comment
              • semibluff
                SBR MVP
                • 04-12-16
                • 1515

                #8
                I can only hold up my hand and say 'my bad'. That was a crap-fest for me. The Red Bulls underwhelmed on both Saturday and Sunday. Sure, Ricciardo 'might' have pinched a podium from 4th spot 'if' something had happened ahead of him but Vettel, Bottas, and Hamilton all had him and his teammate covered sad truth be told. I know I rated Ricciardo +380 on Friday so pretty much he was still likely to not win 4 times out of 5, but that was all-round ugly. I wouldn't dream of claiming anything for Räikkönen who lucked into a podium spot. Force India getting a podium just rubs salt into the wounds. Terrible day for me betting-wise. Other than that at least it was entertaining.
                Comment
                SBR Contests
                Collapse
                Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                Collapse
                Working...