BRISTOL motor speedway

[5mike5]

Alright fellas we are off to my personal favorite racetrack on the circuit this weekend @ BRISTOL motor speedway in TN...also known as my home racetrack ...Both the Xfinity series and the Cup series will be in action this weekend...The truck series will not be running again until next month...Both races will be held in the afternoon on Sat/Sun...

BRISTOL is a 0.533 oval shaped racetrack, with 26-30 variable banking in all the turns and 6-10 degrees on the straights..Keep in mind this track has been repaved and reconfigured several times over the past few seasons, and it has made nobody the Bristol king like the years before so its much more of a wide open race than it use to be here...another tip, misleading finishes are a plenty here so do the research!

As always, anybody's picks and opinions are always welcomed in this thread...The more info and discussion the better for us all...This sure wont be an easy weekend at the bullring, but it never is!


GOODLUCK this weekend!

[5mike5]

odds came out late last night, I am still looking over a few things before i pounce on anything early...but it wont be long..I will post them when i do

[unlearn]

Harvick -135 over Truex.
8,3,1,7,2 last 5 here for the 4 where Truex managed just 1 top 10

[5mike5]

thats on my list but haven't taken it yet

and truex isnt near as bad as his recent finishes make it seems....several misleading finishes from him

[5mike5]

Many match-ups and win markets usually change when dimes posts 1st then Greek..so waiting on a couple things before i post and make final my early plays

[5mike5]

I think E.Jones might just contend for a W this week

[kcburg]

I think E.Jones might just contend for a W this week

hoping he drifts up a bit

[5mike5]

hoping he drifts up a bit

i was hoping too but not looking good

[kcburg]

i was hoping too but not looking good

might be inclined to grab him..like the 22 as well but hoped for closer to 20/1

[5mike5]

I am making all my decisions today, and i am going to go ahead and grab him...if he gets better ill just add on...

i usually dont ever take super longshots on non-plate tracks, but stenhouse isnt a bad option at 88-1 imo...maybe top 5 and matchups too, but i think his odds get sliced in half if h shows anything in practices or qualifying...of course its very unlikely, but low risk huge reward....10 races, 3 top 5's and 5 top 10s...

[5mike5]

not sure how well Suarez can drive at Bristol after breaking his thumb and being in a cast....only matchup so far is against jamie Mac, but im very tempted to take that early too

[BigJay]

Mike, Eric Jones is +1350 on my site. Are those the odds your getting? Still a decent play at that price?

[5mike5]

Mike, Eric Jones is +1350 on my site. Are those the odds your getting? Still a decent play at that price?

I havent seen a better price anywhere at the moment...I am just now taking a few early plays today, but he will be 1 of them at that same price...He is been so strong here in Xfinity series and even cup last season that i dont see it getting much better, if at all...

[5mike5]

xfinity:

Preece (+850)

[kcburg]

Elliot in trouble again..

http://www.sportingnews.com/nascar/news/nascar-chase-elliott-fined-penalty-rear-window-alan-gustafson-texas-motor-speedway-oreilly-auto-parts-500/1gh0fix3ac8g1nppf98l05npp

[unlearn]

Great price on Preece. Cut in half basically (+450 on 5D)
Still +800 on BetOnline fyi

[5mike5]

Great price on Preece. Cut in half basically (+450 on 5D)
Still +800 on BetOnline fyi

yeah i saw Greek posted and knew they had got their normal odds in and it would change so i grabbed it...

also took hemeric>custer(+100) to start a parlay....haven't posted it yet casuse haven't decided on 2nd leg yet

also like hemeric but haven't pulled the trigger yet was hoping he would go up some...

gotta make rest of my early CUP plays today too

[Optional]

On the Preece bandwagon at +800

[BigJay]

Xfinity:
Preece +850 two units

Cup:
E Jones +1350 three units
Stenhouse +8800 .25 unit

[5mike5]

early CUP plays:

E.Jones (+1350)---ill add more if he goes up, just don't wanna risk it...He won here 2 times in Xfinity, plus HE lead 260 laps here last spring and sat on the pole here last season as well in the Cup series...also think he is hitting his stride right now

Kurt B. (+2250)--5 time Bristol winner, but none in about 10 years and before all the current changes to the racetrack...But the way SHR is performing this season I think this play has value

Stenhouse Jr. (+8800)--usually dont take super longshots on non-plate tracks, but this is an exception....over last 5 spring races at Bristol, he has 3 finishes in top 4 including 2 runner-up finishes..he knows how to get around the bullring...when top 5 odds post on raceday maybe worth a hard look as well


Single Matchups:

McMurray>Suarez (-115)...2X.....This is pretty even matchup imo, but since Suarez broke his thumb and is currently in a cast i just think driving 500 laps around Bristol is a challenge to begin with, add a cast ill take the other guy...

Blaney>Elliott (+115)...2X....current form is the main reason i went ahead and jumped on this...Elliott on top of just not getting the results like every chevy driver so far


Left off any single digit favs for now to see if ill have any parlays to close, plus i do not think there is any way the top couple guys odds can get much worse..just didnt want to box myself in on too many early winners or low odds guys...I will have more plays than usual probably because the odds of the early plays are longer than usual..and because its my home track and i cant myself


early Xfinity plays:

Preece (+850)

Hemeric (+850)



hemeric>custer (+100)
B.Jones>Briscoe(-125)
open


matchup single: Hemeric>Reddick (-135)...2X


waiting to add Bell and/or Allghier in raceday parlay hopefully but will just have to wait and see on that..will add a few more bucks if Hemeric win odds go up hes just qualified so well this season i didn't want to wait...not sure i will play both that depends on the odds of the 1 i don't parlay...may have more match-ups too single


Anyways, thats what i have at this moment...any additions ill post before practices start up tomorrow afternoon

[BigJay]

Good luck Mike. I’ve got a real good feeling about E. Jones this week.

[5mike5]

Xfinity:

added: B.Jones>Briscoe (-125)...2X

[5mike5]

Good luck Mike. I’ve got a real good feeling about E. Jones this week.

yeah i do too Jay

[5mike5]

Think i am probably finished with plays until after sessions

[5mike5]

100% chance of rain on Sunday, just hope its in the morning or night....NOT GOOD

only a 25% cance for Saturday

[Optional]

Tailed Jones, Stenhouse and Kurt cup win bets.


Liking Hamilton to do the triple in F1 btw. Pole/win/fast lap

[5mike5]

ill have to wait til F1 posts again

[5mike5]

added:

Harvick>Truex (-135)...2X

[unlearn]

Locked in Hamilton fast lap +160. Good to see we are on the same page with 4>78 Mike

[5mike5]

yeah i couldnt pass it up Unlearn

looked a little more after u took it and harvick has just owned him at bristol

[unlearn]

As good as Jones was here last year and has been in xfinity I cant back him at those low odds until he actually wins a race. That being said he probably wins this week because I won't have him just like Kyle last week.

[5mike5]

yeah i couldnt pass it up Unlearn

looked a little more after u took it and harvick has just owned him at bristol

[5mike5]

its gonna be another race of attrition probably

im.gonna drive up for xfinity in the morning and cup sessions weather permitting

[5mike5]

harvick just destroyed his car

going to a backup

[unlearn]

Harvick into a backup