Kentucky - Quaker State 400

Crony · 06-26-14, 09:13 PM

Menard top 5 6/1 or top 3 10/1 both look good.

Robber · 06-27-14, 12:45 AM

Oops I accidentally sent you points for Opt's game

Optional · 06-27-14, 03:05 AM

Man I did crap on the trucks. 1-4 on head to heads. But at least backed Kyle as a saver so came out about square.

Optional · 06-28-14, 05:33 AM

Kyle Busch +1200
Kurt Busch +2850

Were my early bets.

Mike sounds like he likes BradK. Or a Penske win in a parlay. So will tail that. But not feeling very strong about any of the other faves right now.

Crony · 06-28-14, 11:46 AM

Seeing some 3/1 and 3.5/1 on BK, probably best car but no value at those prices.
Practice daytime, race night time.

This year at the bigger tracks, starting position of race winner and Happy Hour Fast Lap/Ten Lap Average

Start Happy Hour Ten Lap
Las Vegas 2 2 4
California 13 12 14
Texas 10 17 x - no ten lap run
Kansas 13 6 x - no ten lap run
Charlotte 1 30 4
Pocono 8 6 1
Michigan 7 4 x - no ten lap run

Don't really get the appeal of a Parlay with Keselowski if his base odds are 4/1.
If you have some other leg of a parlay that is such a sure thing, just play that.
Why tie in BK at negative equity?

Optional · 06-28-14, 01:13 PM

I think the penske win in a parlay idea was as a cover. I still do like that as a cheap way to try to cover Penske. If the H2H is genuinely +EV it's mathematically sound to parlay with it. Sure it won't win as often as a straight H2H or win bet, but it's not expected to. Anyway, whatever, I still like it.

But I'm not interested in Brad at those odds either.

Thanks for posting those stats. What do you make of them as far as betting this race?

Crony · 06-28-14, 01:40 PM

Ryan Newman in an interview yesterday said about Kentucky "Well it really is a big circle with the exception of the back straightaway. So that’s one of the biggest things. It’s got a D-shape appearance from the sky, but it drives like a big circle with a small straight."

Makes me think the Hendrick horsepower edge will be less pronounced here, brings other drivers into play.
There is a group a little better than everybody else this year at these track types, Keselowski, Harvick, Johnson, Logano, Gordon, Dale Jr (not this week).

Taking Jr from the mix, any of those 5 week in week out have a shot (obviously Johnson has been the best, but Harvick usually has the best car).

I would want something in 8/1 to 12/1 range on one of those drivers this week.

I think both of your early bets are decent, more so the Kurt Busch play who has been mostly lousy this year.

Last year Kenseth won the race qualifying 16th with a 20th Happy hour speed and 15 in P1.
Obviously he was great at these track types and the practices did not mean a lot.

The top 5 last year, McMurray last year was 7th in 10 lap happy hour run, Kyle Busch was HH 3, P1 6 with a ten lap of 1.
None of the other top 5 had top ten times in the practices.

Crony · 06-28-14, 01:45 PM

Long story short, think there are a lot of drivers in play tonight.
If I could get Kenseth at 12 I would bet him.

Tempted by Larson @ 20/1. Will end up taking a bunch of that.

Optional · 06-28-14, 02:19 PM

Good post.

I heard Newman say that.

Be interesting to see if your logic holds up on the horsepower edge.

Betting Dixon and Kanaan in Indycars about to start.

Optional · 06-28-14, 02:22 PM

I like the way Ganassi team has been progressing this year. Nether Larson or McMurray saluting would shock me tonight.

Crony · 06-28-14, 02:30 PM

Agree, having been eyeing McMurray. He was pretty good at the All Star race once he had track position.
2nd last year at this track.
14/1 for top 3 has some appeal.

In his career, he has 7 wins, 9 2nd's, 9 3rd's.
25 top 3's in 418 starts, break even for top 3 = 16.72.

Only 9 of his 25 top 3's have come at the bigger tracks (not plate/short/intermediate).
The big tracks make up about 45% of the schedule so he has underperformed.

Seems like he has found a rhythm last 6 races, probably need a little better than 14/1 or 40/1 but it is close.

Crony · 06-28-14, 03:40 PM

Kasey Kahne top 3, 6/1 (I would take 5/1)

There is a group odds out there where you can take Keselowski at 3/1 vs. Harvick, Gordon, Johnson, and Logano.
Like that a lot better than a parlay of Keselowski at 4/1 with something else.

kcburg · 06-28-14, 04:03 PM

good stuff gang...

homervdoh · 06-28-14, 04:15 PM

Brad k +310 to win race +320 to win group a makes sense

Crony · 06-28-14, 05:29 PM

Roush is Junk... Hendrick Horsepower is the best...

Kurt Busch has 10 finishes of 21st or worse in 16 starts.
Edwards is 12 and 4 head up vs Busch on the year.
At night races this year, Edwards is 5-0.

Taking Edwards +1.70 vs Kurt Busch.

Optional · 06-29-14, 08:40 AM

Well that was kind of a shitty race weekend all over for me.

Anyone having a bet on Indycars today?

I'm betting Dixon and Kanaan again, plus Briscoe. And taking Will Power to break even. for what its worth.