HOMESTEAD--finale--5mike5

[5mike5]

yeah seems odd, but i dont blame u at taking him @ the price, just not on my radar this week....

plus hes never even won a race here b4, mostly cause he never tries with a nice cushion like he does this week...

[yisman]

Long odds on JJ for two reasons:

A)Not his best track, he'd probably be in the upper single digits anyway (8 or 9 to 1?)
B)The only way he doesn't win the Cup is if he wrecks, so chances are he will not be very aggressive. He can still win if they have another rocketship, but it's a lot harder when your primary goal isn't to win the race.


Average finish here: 15.33 in 12 races. 0 wins. In 2011, he finished 32nd. In 2012, he finished 36th. He's had the pole twice here. Finished 5th and 7th in those races.

[Vegas39]

Agree yis and don't see them being that aggressive and having something happen

[5mike5]

if i was offering odds though, id have him @ about 12-1 or worse and just because of who he is and might have 1 of those unreal cars

but he is NOT gonna try and win the race, but could always just have that car and stay out front all day...but even then, he would be very very timid on restarts

[Reno Paul]

I know playing JJ is a risk, but at 14-1 it is worth it to me......

Liking Logano to finish in the top 3.....May place small wager on him to win as well.

[yisman]

if i was offering odds though, id have him @ about 12-1 or worse and just because of who he is and might have 1 of those unreal cars

but he NOT gonna try and win the race, but could always just have that car

you said 14/1 is like a bad line and then you'd have 12/1 maybe? That's not so far off.

I'd set it in the 12/1 to 15/1 range.

[5mike5]

thats what i meant by a bad line, by the books cause he isnt anywhere near that price i saw..

not what i personally think

[Vegas39]

But to average people they see that price and will jump all over it

[5mike5]

and ONLY reason his stats are so bad here is because its the last race, if this race was ran another time, he wouldnt be near as bad stats wise so take those for what they are worth 1/2 he never tried

and another 1/2 he had mechanical failures (like last ye) wrecked, or wasnt on lead lap

when he has tried he does have a decent amount of top 5s to his credit

[Reno Paul]

But to average people they see that price and will jump all over it

You calling me a square? LOL

[Vegas39]

You calling me a square? LOL

No no meant people that don't bet much but see that inflated line

[5mike5]

guys i swear all week ive just looked at top of the odds all weekand thought jimmie and matt was the favs

had no clue dimes still has him @ +1400



cause i never planned on betting him i never looked or payed any attention to his odds...still not sure how i did that as much as i STARE at that board daily

damn a need a vacation

[5mike5]

thats why i been saying sounds like such i bad line by the books, here i was thinking jimmie was 6-1 to 8-1 or something all week

embarrassing

[Vegas39]

For mikes sanity glad this last week

[Reno Paul]

guys i swear all week ive just looked at top of the odds all weekand thought jimmie and matt was the favs

had no clue dimes still has him @ +1400



cause i never planned on betting him i never looked or payed any attention to his odds...still not sure how i did that as much as i STARE at that board daily

damn a need a vacation

Last race of the season pal.....Well deserved vacation coming soon.....

[Reno Paul]

Only time I ever saw JJ +1400 was on a road course

[5mike5]

thats why i was saying soundslike a Bad Line by the books, cause here i am thinking hes around 6-1 or 8-1 everywhere

still unreal i havent noticed it..

my brain really must be fried on last week

[5mike5]

colts look like dog shit early

[onlooker]

Date	Event	Time	Radio/TV
FRI 11/15	Nationwide Practice	10:00 a.m. - 10:50 a.m.	FS1
	Camping World Truck Series Final Practice	11:00 a.m. - 1:00 p.m.	FS1
	Sprint Cup Series Practice	1:30 p.m. - 3:00 p.m.	ESPN2
	Nationwide Final Practice	3:10 p.m. - 4:20 p.m.	FS2
	Camping World Truck Series Qualifying	4:30 p.m.	FS2
	Sprint Cup Series Qualifying	6:10 p.m.	MRN/ESPN2
	Radio Pre-Race	7:30 p.m.	MRN
	TV Pre-Race	7:30 p.m.	FS1
	Camping World Truck Series Ford EcoBoost 200	8:00 p.m.	MRN/FS1
SAT 11/16	Sprint Cup Series Practice	12:00 p.m. - 12:55 p.m.	FS2
	Nationwide Series Qualifying	1:05 p.m.	FS2
	Sprint Cup Series Final Practice	3:00 p.m. - 3:50 p.m.	FS2
	Radio Pre-Race	4:00 p.m.	MRN
	TV Pre-Race	4:00 p.m.	ESPN
	Nationwide Series Ford EcoBoost 300	4:30 p.m.	MRN/ESPN
SUN 11/17	Radio Pre-Race	2:00 p.m.	MRN
	TV Pre-Race	2:00 p.m.	ESPN
	Sprint Cup Series Ford EcoBoost 400	3:00 p.m.	MRN/ESPN

ALL TIMES EASTERN

[5mike5]

thanks Onlooker

[5mike5]

since theres are all 3 series in action this week, i will try 1 more long-shot parlay starting with trucks tomorrow night and parlaying Winner...

IF they even offer them last few weeks they have even left off nationwide....guess we will just have to see

if not ill just look for another longshot prop or ML winner saturday in college football i guess...last week so ill try my max 2 this week of the pre-raceday logshot parlays

[5mike5]

like truex (+2150)as a longshot too

will add more later in the week hoping he gets better odds even..

but hes usually pretty damn solid here but with him that usually doesnt means WINS

[yisman]

yeah that's what I didn't understand. Your line was close to what is available.

I think it's fair.

Even if you excuse him for the times he finished laps back due to car trouble, he's still never won here. So he couldn't be a top 2 fave.

[5mike5]

Well gonna have a decent 2-slot parlay with a +535 that won on 1st-leg

hell a -110 with it pays around +1200 so anything +odds will be good still, maybe really good

[5mike5]

Might use a nationwide race winner for last play on it.

Well I they offer them this week but I think they will for nationwide at least

Would say trucks but just have to see.

[Reno Paul]

Added Joey Logano to win +1550

Also a 3 teamer......

3 Team Parlay
					Pending	11/15/13 1:30pm SprintCup Motor Racing 6002 Joey Logano #22 +100* vs Dale Earnhardt Jr #88
					Pending	11/15/13 1:30pm SprintCup Motor Racing 6005 Greg Biffle #16 -110* vs Ryan Newman #39
					Pending	11/15/13 1:30pm SprintCup Motor Racing 7540 Carl Edwards #99 +100* vs Denny Hamlin #11

Pays 6.63-1

[5mike5]

like the pre-session parlay for sure

[Reno Paul]

like the pre-session parlay for sure

Thanks!

[yisman]

7528 Greg Biffle #16 -115* vs Kurt Busch #78
6005 Greg Biffle #16 -110* vs Ryan Newman #39
7540 Carl Edwards #99 +100* vs Denny Hamlin #11

I never bet the early HTHs, maybe did it once before a while back. The odds don't even appear on sportsoptions.

[5mike5]

i mean i can a -110 play with a +535 already as a winner on now what is a longshot 2slot parlay and get about +1200 instead of +265....

but im sure ill go +odds always go 4 these especially since was suppose to be a 3-slot parlay...

I'll probably use a nationwide or trucks big H2H or probably a race winner from 1...not sure ill hod out for cup race or not yet...just depends i guess

but after that game, im very happy to still be alive for a good payout

[Vegas39]

Anyone vs paludo

[5mike5]

Anyone vs paludo

u know i like that kind of thinking after last 2 weeks!

would be the trifect for taking Chastain vs Paludo in a single bet maxed out a few times...

weren't juiced bad either

[Reno Paul]

Paludo is nowhere to be found on 5 Dimes in matchups.

Seen this in futures for trucks though.......

Miguel Paludo +3850

[5mike5]

They will have him in at least 1-2. Matchups. They always do, its just in raceday after qualifying b4 they post them. I'm pretty sure I bet both my big h2hs last 2. Weeks was right before the race started, or within the hour of it starting

[5mike5]

Harvick has great starts here. Top 8 last 5 races from homestead

Finished top 10 in all but 3 races in his career at this racetrack.

Thats pretty impressive also haven't pulled off a win win either.