football discussion for NASCAR forum

**5mike5** · 09-09-13, 06:51 AM

Originally posted by MatI

Was still a great weekend mike.

yes mati is sure was...

my fingers are stained with green

**yisman** · 09-09-13, 09:51 AM

Originally posted by 5mike5

yes mati is sure was...

my fingers are stained with green

mike they paid you in counterfeit bills

**5mike5** · 09-09-13, 10:40 AM

Originally posted by yisman

mike they paid you in counterfeit bills

!!!!!!!!

**DDT** · 09-09-13, 05:17 PM

Any props tonight?

My 1st parlay prop bet:

Philly Scores 5+ points first (+115)

**5mike5** · 09-09-13, 06:07 PM

i didnt bet any props for the 1st game (oh meant to tell u i started my +odds only player prop thread in the NFL sub-forum too)

but i AM taking something for the late game tonight player prop wise

i didnt like the early game game either, but wanted some action, so like i always do if i dont like anything much, i bought like 5 points to make the skins a huge underdog (just on a parlay though) skins -8 (+160) 1st slot on 3teamer

GOODLUCK tonight guys!!!!

**DDT** · 09-09-13, 06:33 PM

Damnit...Philly was all the way to the 5 yard line on the opening drive and then threw the backwards pass and let Washington score!

**Optional** · 09-09-13, 07:51 PM

Originally posted by DDT

Damnit...Philly was all the way to the 5 yard line on the opening drive and then threw the backwards pass and let Washington score!

Bad luck mate. I had Skins to score a TD first. at least one of us got there.

**MatI** · 09-15-13, 07:57 PM

Any suggestions for a good number to look out for live in this SF/Seattle game?

**Optional** · 09-15-13, 08:08 PM

They dont play football in the rain in America either??

**Vegas39** · 09-15-13, 08:11 PM

Originally posted by Optional

They dont play football in the rain in America either??

Not if lightning in area

**Optional** · 09-15-13, 08:12 PM

Oh, fair enough.

**MatI** · 09-15-13, 08:18 PM

Lightning = lawsuits

**Vegas39** · 09-15-13, 08:20 PM

Originally posted by MatI

Lightning = lawsuits

Thats the reason right there

**shaunovery** · 09-16-13, 04:28 PM

Bengals v steelers tonight

Liking the over dont trust the bengals enough to take the points

**Optional** · 09-16-13, 05:08 PM

Originally posted by shaunovery

Bengals v steelers tonight

Liking the over dont trust the bengals enough to take the points

I'm behind you. Put half on O41.5 +118 and half on O51.5 +300

**shaunovery** · 09-17-13, 04:54 AM

Originally posted by Optional

I'm behind you. Put half on O41.5 +118 and half on O51.5 +300

Typical shoukd of just played the bengals

**Optional** · 09-18-13, 03:26 AM

Oh well.

I've been thinking about ways to cap/bet NFL that I can do myself as a know nothing.

Started off looking at the incidence of teams scoring in all 4 quarters last year. Put it together like this to give a bit of a visual of which teams did it when over the season.

I like this prop because last 2 weeks most teams have been +200 to +300. Which means if I think I can find any sort of edge, i still only need to hit 1 in 3 bets to grind forward whilst refining it.

I like to keep it simple, going to just work with odds and 2012 and 2013 records to start with, although I suspect capping coaching staff might be worth trying too.

Any of you guys see anything worth mentioning for me to think about please do.

Teams in red mean opposition also scored in all 4 quarters

**shaunovery** · 09-18-13, 03:42 AM

Originally posted by Optional

Oh well.

I've been thinking about ways to cap/bet NFL that I can do myself as a know nothing.

Started off looking at the incidence of teams scoring in all 4 quarters last year. Put it together like this to give a bit of a visual of which teams did it when over the season.

I like this prop because last 2 weeks most teams have been +200 to +300. Which means if I think I can find any sort of edge, i still only need to hit 1 in 3 bets to grind forward whilst refining it.

I like to keep it simple, going to just work with odds and 2012 and 2013 records to start with, although I suspect capping coaching staff might be worth trying too.

Any of you guys see anything worth mentioning for me to think about please do.

Teams in red mean opposition also scored in all 4 quarters

Forget about it would be my advice just look at this weeks games out of tge 32 teams only chargers.philly.oakland and giants were the only ones to score in all 4 qtrs so unless you were geting avg odds of 7-1 you would of done your cobblers .but do think youre on tbe right lines for getting a edge .betting various teams totals denver.philly to note

**Optional** · 09-18-13, 01:10 PM

Originally posted by shaunovery

Forget about it would be my advice just look at this weeks games out of tge 32 teams only chargers.philly.oakland and giants were the only ones to score in all 4 qtrs so unless you were geting avg odds of 7-1 you would of done your cobblers .but do think youre on tbe right lines for getting a edge .betting various teams totals denver.philly to note

I've done a fair bit more work on this now and have come up with a preliminary system and development plan. I did a reverse matrix of the above with the teams that conceded points in all 4 quarters and made some simple calcs to create a rating for each team in each matchup.

Based just on that here are the Ver 0.01 system bets for the first 5 weeks of NFL

Week 1 - Patriots (loss)
Week 2 - Raiders (win), Patriots (loss)
Week 3 - Seahawks
Week 4 - Colts, Patriots
Week 5 - Patriots

I think a simple statistical system based on 2012 data only can be excused for over valuing the Pats, but it will be interesting to look back at how the other picks go compared to later versions.

I'm going to see how predictive the 2012 season is of 2011 next, then reverse that and see how 2011 fares for 2012 and 13. That will give me a baseline to start working from. I'll add a new metric and repeat the whole process, then swap that for a different metric and repeat process, then do it using both together. Then repeat for a 3rd metric. I think that's about as far as i want to go.

Hopefully by week 6 I'll have something perfected that at least spits out a few picks each week that will be worth my time to research by hand.

Or I'll work out I cant find an edge...

Without your knowledge my only option is to rely on stats if i want to have a go.

**5mike5** · 09-18-13, 01:32 PM

U can get great prop odds on a team scoring in all 4 quarters on nfl games if u see any trends. Can't remember how good cause I've never bet it. I didn't read thread just saw something about ur chart where a team(s) did that

**Optional** · 09-18-13, 01:36 PM

I wish I could get historical odds somehow, that would be awesome to use. But I'll start tracking them myself for this season at least. I think it's a market they just set mostly default odds around the +250 mark for is one reason why I think its worth a bit of time researching at least.

**5mike5** · 09-18-13, 02:11 PM

I think its alot better than +250 for scoring in all quarters but I could be wrong just seens (and depends on team) its alot better IF I recall. But team u bet on means everything of course

**Optional** · 09-18-13, 02:35 PM

I hope you're right Mike!

Anyone know other books that offer this prop apart from 5D btw?

**yisman** · 09-18-13, 05:32 PM

bet Indy and Minnesota

Richardson traded to the Colts

**Optional** · 09-18-13, 06:44 PM

Originally posted by yisman

bet Indy and Minnesota

Richardson traded to the Colts

Is a RB likely to make that much difference to score frequency?

When I start looking at individuals, I was thinking of looking for a way to identify teams or players or Off Co-ordinators that attempt a lot of Field Goals as one key metric.

Am I on the right track there in your opinion?

**yisman** · 09-19-13, 12:53 PM

RBs are overrated but some of the better ones like Richardson will cause line moves.

Since the trade was announced, both have moved in my favor

09/19/13 12:05:14am	+10½-27	-10½+15
09/18/13 07:16:19pm	+10½-23	-10½+11
09/18/13 07:01:01pm	+10½-18	-10½+07
09/18/13 07:00:18pm
09/18/13 06:20:40pm	+10½-18	-10½+07

09/19/13 07:43:24am	+6½-01	-6½-09
09/19/13 05:02:28am	+6½-02	-6½-08
09/18/13 07:57:21pm	+6½-05	-6½-05
09/18/13 07:16:11pm	+6ev	-6-10
09/18/13 07:00:58pm	+6-02	-6-08
09/18/13 07:00:13pm
09/18/13 06:31:15pm	+6-02	-6-08
09/18/13 06:20:30pm	+6-05	-6-05
09/18/13 05:08:39pm	+6-10	-6ev

**shaunovery** · 09-19-13, 02:23 PM

Wouldnt of thought richardson will see much playing time on sunday

Definately like the vikes browns on the rd 3rd string qb not a great deal of depth at rb

**Optional** · 09-19-13, 07:34 PM

I don't know if I missed it but don't think 5Dimes (or anyone else I checked) even offered the Score in all 4 quarters prop for this match.

I hope I haven't been wasting my time totally.

**5mike5** · 09-19-13, 09:00 PM

Originally posted by Optional

I don't know if I missed it but don't think 5Dimes (or anyone else I checked) even offered the Score in all 4 quarters prop for this match.

I hope I haven't been wasting my time totally.

I saw it opti, actually made it a point to look tonight . But considering eagles were playing with their D and offense it was probably 1 of lower priced ones. They were around +175 and chiefs like +285.

not exact maybe but within 10 cents I'm pretty sure

**Optional** · 09-19-13, 09:01 PM

Thanks Mike. Appreciate you posting that.

I need to get more on the ball.

**Optional** · 09-20-13, 03:26 AM

Is there a prop bet on college games to take advantage of this large difference?

Tennessee leads the nation in fewest penalties per game. Florida ranks 118th in penalties.

**yisman** · 09-21-13, 09:58 AM

I don't know of any

Minnesota Vikings up to 7 at some books

**5mike5** · 09-22-13, 02:21 PM

the prick is on a fukkin tear

4-0 already again with 2x a win this week

if i go 4-1 again with 2x a winner i might puke

**shaunovery** · 09-22-13, 06:24 PM

no payouts this week in beat the prick

seems hes getting very tough too beat

**5mike5** · 09-22-13, 06:39 PM

looks like ill have another positive week, and probably stay in the top 40-50 somewhere (amazing for me honestly)

still sad to be there and only free plays ive got are from week #1 and that was below 200pts which blows

guess doing well is still a goal for the overall, which is still something but...

**any1 know or link to the overall prizes for BTP contest?? (i couldnt find them , i dont play enough contest to know where to look probably)

not only cash for top 5 or whatever, but how many players win pts when its over for the final finishers

thanks