NRL Finals Series As I See It

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  • Dr.Gonzo
    SBR MVP
    • 12-05-09
    • 4660

    #1
    NRL Finals Series As I See It
    Futures Market

    Bulldogs $2.80
    Storm $3.60
    Cowboys $7.00
    Eagles $7.50
    Bunnies $9.00
    Raiders $19.00

    Bulldogs Will be hard to beat but poor value at present. Have a good forward pack and a lot of attacking weapons but they totally lost their structure in attack last Friday which is a concern. Halves are not that great.

    Storm Should be favorites. They produced a professional performance to demolish the Bunnies last Saturday. Have the advantage of a home semi final on a ground with a very significant advantage. Have the best spine in the comp who are proven big match players.

    Cowboys Massively overrated. They make for a good five minute highlights package and that's about it. I can't believe everyone thinks they were impressive last Saturday. If the Broncos hadn't given away cheap penalties and failed to complete their sets they would have made a real game of that.

    Eagles Value against the Cowboys but not for futures because they'll run into the Storm. Abysmal performance in attack against the Bulldogs. They lost their structure and looked completely lost in attack last Friday. Positives were the strong performance from the forwards at times and the great field position they found themselves in. If they find themselves in that position again they'll beat the Cowboys who have a far inferior goal line defense when compared to the Bulldogs. Only danger is they're an overrated team coming off a lose but they matchup well for this week in my opinion.

    Bunnies Posses some great individual players but they're a club with a losing culture coming off a demoralizing loss. Overhyped on the basis of Greg Inglis video packages.

    Raiders Represent great value and have found form at the right time of the season. Have a good record against the sides sitting at the top of the ladder. Not the complete side in the same vein as the Storm but they have a lot of points in them and are the clear outsider of the field based on the market.

    If you disagree or need further clarification with any points, post away.
  • easysaid
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 05-18-12
    • 690

    #2
    So your picking a eagles victory come friday? I liked it untill i saw the line, honestly expecting them to be favourites (after all they are last years winners and are used to finals football).
    Comment
    • Dr.Gonzo
      SBR MVP
      • 12-05-09
      • 4660

      #3
      I like Eagles and Raiders this week.

      Lyon is under and injury cloud and Mati is fronting the judiciary, I wouldn't worry about the line or rush in to take it early either.
      Comment
      • Optional
        Administrator
        • 06-10-10
        • 61527

        #4
        Manly are dogs because Matai has been charged with a dnagerous tackle and can't pleade his way out.

        Over-reaction imho. Parlay Eagles+Raiders for the big payout.
        .
        Comment
        • Donkey
          SBR High Roller
          • 05-22-12
          • 151

          #5
          raiders cowboys win this weekend
          storm bulldogs win next weekend
          storm win grand final
          Comment
          • easysaid
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 05-18-12
            • 690

            #6
            I got a massive parly with the storm to take it out paying $2k from $250. Bloody well hope so!
            Comment
            • hawley
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 05-10-10
              • 14270

              #7
              Don't like the Raiders or the Sea Eagles too much this weekend.

              Lets see how the Manly team looks come the weekend. They are pretty beat up right now.

              The Cowboys are legitimate contenders though, don't write them off
              Comment
              • Optional
                Administrator
                • 06-10-10
                • 61527

                #8
                You could be right about Cowboys, but the Bunnies haven't beaten a legitimate contender in months. Raiders are a gift dog I reckon.
                .
                Comment
                • hawley
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 05-10-10
                  • 14270

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Optional
                  You could be right about Cowboys, but the Bunnies haven't beaten a legitimate contender in months. Raiders are a gift dog I reckon.

                  I think I have been guilty of underrating the Raiders for some time now and perhaps this is my bias continuing.

                  That game seems one team on an absolute roll take on a team that stumbled their way into the finals and were humbled last round. Will be interesting for sure.
                  Comment
                  • Optional
                    Administrator
                    • 06-10-10
                    • 61527

                    #10
                    It's tough to ignore how good Souths look on paper, as the odds indicate, but this is sudden death finals footy. The green machine have lifted when they really had to a few times this year, and I'd like them in this spot at anything over even money, let alone the $3.00 it is.
                    .
                    Comment
                    • hawley
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 05-10-10
                      • 14270

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Optional
                      It's tough to ignore how good Souths look on paper, as the odds indicate, but this is sudden death finals footy. The green machine have lifted when they really had to a few times this year, and I'd like them in this spot at anything over even money, let alone the $3.00 it is.

                      No way in hell I take the Rabbitohs at $1.30ish or lay the points at this stage
                      Comment
                      • Domestic
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 02-10-09
                        • 6323

                        #12
                        Tough games to predict this week guys, lines seem pretty sharp although Canberra +8 is tempting. I may just end up pounding the opposite of whatever the public likes just before kickoff.
                        Comment
                        • MrXYZ
                          SBR MVP
                          • 02-18-11
                          • 2342

                          #13
                          Crocker may be out for the Raiders this week. He's their goal kicker and the NRL's top pointscorer.
                          Comment
                          • hawley
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 05-10-10
                            • 14270

                            #14
                            Originally posted by MrXYZ
                            Crocker may be out for the Raiders this week. He's their goal kicker and the NRL's top pointscorer.

                            Didn't he break his cheekbone?

                            I think he is certainly out
                            Comment
                            • That Guy
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 01-13-12
                              • 973

                              #15
                              Yeah Crocker is out.
                              Goal kicking could be the difference this week.. if it is I don't like the Raiders chances - their goal kicking options are the moment are very very slim & most tries will probably be scored out wide.
                              Comment
                              • hawley
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 05-10-10
                                • 14270

                                #16
                                Originally posted by That Guy
                                Yeah Crocker is out.
                                Goal kicking could be the difference this week.. if it is I don't like the Raiders chances - their goal kicking options are the moment are very very slim & most tries will probably be scored out wide.

                                Those attempts from Dugan last weekend were pretty hideous.

                                Perhaps with a week of practice he will improve but anything from out wide he will struggle with I imagine.
                                Comment
                                • Dr.Gonzo
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 12-05-09
                                  • 4660

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by That Guy
                                  Goal kicking could be the difference this week.. if it is I don't like the Raiders chances - their goal kicking options are the moment are very very slim & most tries will probably be scored out wide.
                                  Josh Dugan converted 112/163 kicking during the Toyota Cup.

                                  Daryl Halligan has been working with him this week, he's a much better kicker than we saw last week.
                                  Comment
                                  • Dr.Gonzo
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 12-05-09
                                    • 4660

                                    #18
                                    Jamie Lyon will play for Manly

                                    Manly -1.5 @ Evens (2 unit play)

                                    Lean towards the over but it's juiced at 37.5 so no bet there
                                    Comment
                                    • Domestic
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 02-10-09
                                      • 6323

                                      #19
                                      Looks like most of us here are on either Manly or the Over, hope we don't all get buried.
                                      Comment
                                      • Dr.Gonzo
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 12-05-09
                                        • 4660

                                        #20
                                        Gould and Rabs are blind, unbearable commentary.
                                        Comment
                                        • Optional
                                          Administrator
                                          • 06-10-10
                                          • 61527

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by Dr.Gonzo
                                          Gould and Rabs are blind, unbearable commentary.
                                          Did you think that ball was touched for the Manly try?
                                          .
                                          Comment
                                          • Dr.Gonzo
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 12-05-09
                                            • 4660

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by Optional
                                            Did you think that ball was touched for the Manly try?
                                            Thurston had all the contact, Manly might have got a fingertip to it, couldn't tell, benefit of the doubt.
                                            Comment
                                            • Dr.Gonzo
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 12-05-09
                                              • 4660

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by Dr.Gonzo
                                              Manly -1.5 @ Evens (2 unit play)


                                              Good result.

                                              Cowboys are going to complain about the officials which is fantastic for tomorrow. There's a chance Raiders will get robbed but the pressure will really be on the officials to call it down the middle after tonight.

                                              Can't see Manly beating Melbourne next week, they look beat up.
                                              Comment
                                              • easysaid
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 05-18-12
                                                • 690

                                                #24
                                                That was such a bullshit call, I bet those manly fuckers were tipping the refs big after this game.
                                                Comment
                                                • sweepem
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 04-26-11
                                                  • 459

                                                  #25
                                                  I was on Manly but those last 2 tries were a joke. I couldn't believe they awarded those.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Dr.Gonzo
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 12-05-09
                                                    • 4660

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by sweepem
                                                    I was on Manly but those last 2 Try's were a joke. I couldn't believe they awarded those.
                                                    2nd last try was 100% for me, ball clearly touches the line before he lifts the ball up again.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • hawley
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 05-10-10
                                                      • 14270

                                                      #27
                                                      Couple of tough calls but I was pretty happy to see them go benefit of the doubt with attacking team.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Dr.Gonzo
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 12-05-09
                                                        • 4660

                                                        #28
                                                        If the shoe was on the other foot I probably would have been dirty, there's no doubt Manly got all the luck.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • hawley
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 05-10-10
                                                          • 14270

                                                          #29
                                                          Pretty hard to argue there was conclusive evidence either way
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Optional
                                                            Administrator
                                                            • 06-10-10
                                                            • 61527

                                                            #30
                                                            Glad they got through. Agree they will struggle with Melbourne next week. WOuld not be surprised if Cherry-Evans is out the way he was nursing that shoulder at the end.
                                                            .
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Dr.Gonzo
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 12-05-09
                                                              • 4660

                                                              #31
                                                              Very confident on the Raiders tonight, market is totally out of whack, obviously set on hype not form.

                                                              Raiders +8.5 @ 1.85 (3 units)
                                                              Raiders ML @ 3.34 (1 units)
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Dr.Gonzo
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 12-05-09
                                                                • 4660

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by Dr.Gonzo
                                                                Raiders +8.5 @ 1.85 (3 units)
                                                                Raiders ML @ 3.34 (1 units)


                                                                Very poor performance from the Raiders. Furner is a muppet, can't believe he didn't have the team drilled better to deal with Souths dummy half oriented attack. Really struggled to gain control of the ruck, and couldn't get markers in position.

                                                                Melbourne controlled the ruck, and as a result Souths looked lost. Obviously, you couldn't expect the Raiders to be as dominate, but that was pathetic.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Optional
                                                                  Administrator
                                                                  • 06-10-10
                                                                  • 61527

                                                                  #33
                                                                  That was a sad effort Dr G.

                                                                  I was solid all week Raiders would roll.
                                                                  .
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Dr.Gonzo
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 12-05-09
                                                                    • 4660

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Storm -2.5 (4.4 units)

                                                                    Professional effort in week one, helped by a very significant home ground advantage, against a team that is carrying injuries and looks a little worn down.I was thoroughly unimpressed with the Eagles in round one, and was correct about them winning last week, that was more so based on the weak opposition.The Storm have a phenomenal defense and the Eagles attack has been struggling, expecting to see them get ground into submission tonight.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Dr.Gonzo
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 12-05-09
                                                                      • 4660

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by Dr.Gonzo
                                                                      Storm -2.5 (4.4 units)
                                                                      too easy
                                                                      Comment
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