dRavidC's AFL 2012

[dRavidC]

hey everyone, had a pretty profitable afl last year and hoping it can continue again this year.

2* Richmond U 39.5 vs Carlton LOSS

NRL 2012 Record: 0 - 1

- 2.00 units

[dRavidC]

3* Hawthorn M/L vs Collingwood WON

AFL 2012 Record: 1 - 1

+0.10 units

hey everyone, had a pretty profitable afl last year and hoping it can continue again this year.

2* Richmond U 39.5 vs Carlton LOSS

AFL* 2012 Record: 0 - 1

- 2.00 units

[dRavidC]

wow what a game between hawthorn and collingwood. A higher scoring shootout - god how we have all missed you AFL.

[kingsr]

Could possibly be the game of the season already in Round 1!

[dRavidC]

2* Gold Coast vs Adelaide -24.5 WON

2* Fremantle vs Geelong -8.5 LOSS

AFL 2012 Record: 2 - 2

+0.00 units

[dRavidC]

5* West Coast -48.5 vs Melbourne

[dRavidC]

5* West Coast -48.5 vs Melbourne WON

AFL 2012 Record: 3 - 2

+4.55 units

[dRavidC]

5* Western Bulldogs +14.5 vs St Kilda LOSS

History is on St Kilda's side, winning its past 6 games against the Western Bulldogs by an average of 22 points. St Kilda registered their first win of the season with a 92 point ambush against the hapless Suns at home but the Western Bulldogs are a completely different side. The bulldogs are yet to register a win for 2012 being embarrassed at home against West Coast but they showed a lot better defence and hardness against one of the contenders for this year in Adelaide. St Kilda looked terrible against Port Adelaide and I don't think they can fix up their disjointed game in a matter of 2 weeks. I can't back them away from home until they give me reason to. I like Western Bulldogs with the points here.

AFL 2012 Record: 3 - 3

-0.45 units

[dRavidC]

5* Carlton -39.5 vs Essendon LOSS

5* West Coast vs Hawthorn M/L

5* Adelaide -90.5 vs Greater Western Sydney LOSS

[dRavidC]

5* Carlton -39.5 vs Essendon LOSS

5* West Coast vs Hawthorn M/L LOSS

5* Adelaide -90.5 vs Greater Western Sydney LOSS

AFL 2012 Record: 3 - 6

-15.45 units

[dRavidC]

10* Greater Western Sydney +66.5 vs Western Bulldogs WON

GWS are starting to play more competitive footy and I really like how they competed against Adelaide last week. While I don't think they'll win against the Western Bulldogs, I do think they can keep it within the spread. Winning by more than 11 goals is a big big margin and this in my opinion is way too many points to be giving to a bulldogs side that have struggled all season long and even that win against Melbourne last week did not look convincing at all.

AFL 2012 Record: 4 - 6

-6.35 units

[binomial]

agreed GL.

[dRavidC]

5* Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood 1-39 Margin (@ 2.20) WON

AFL 2012 Record: 5 - 6

-0.35 units

[dRavidC]

5* Essendon -30.5 vs Brisbane

5* Sydney -26.5 vs Adelaide

[dRavidC]

5* Essendon -30.5 vs Brisbane WON

5* Sydney -26.5 vs Adelaide LOSS

AFL 2012 Record: 6 - 7

-0.8 units

[dRavidC]

5* Melbourne +54.5 vs Hawthorn LOSS

10* Adelaide +7.5 vs Geelong WON

AFL 2012 Record: 7 - 8

+3.3 units

[dRavidC]

5* Essendon vs West Coast M/L @ 2.55 LOSS

AFL 2012 Record: 7 - 9

-1.7 units

[dRavidC]

5* Western Bulldogs vs Geelong U 190.5 WON

AFL 2012 Record: 8 - 9

+ 2.85 units

[dRavidC]

Gotta love it when the "UNDERS FRIDAY" POWER-PLAY comes through

[dRavidC]

AFL Saturday 26/5

5* Gold Coast +15.5 vs Port Adelaide LOSS

From a viewing perspective, this shapes to be probably one of the more duller games of the round. From a betting perspective, this appears to be one of the matches of the round. Gold Coast have not won a game this season, including a loss to the lowly Giants. Probably the most disappointing aspect here is that the Gold Coast side have played great in patches but have just struggled to put together 4 quarters of footy. Port Adelaide have only won two games this season, and they have been at home. They have looked terrible on the road all year and yet they are favoured by 15.5 points? This is way too many points to be giving to Port Adelaide and I think the Gold Coast Suns can either keep this game close or get their much awaited maiden season win.

Gold Coast's first AFL club win was against Port Adelaide and revenge will surely be on the minds of the Port Adelaide side. But Gold Coast will be just as desperate and motivated so I'm expecting a real close scrapppy game.

5* Adelaide 1-39 Margin @ 2.10 vs Collingwood LOSS

Collingwood who? Adelaide have been on fire and have gone under the radar and are starting to look like real premiership contenders. First they ended Sydney's unbeaten start to the season, destroyed Geelong on their home turf and then annihilated Carlton in Carlton by a whopping 69 points. I can't see why they can't repeat this form against a Collingwood side that have been playing no where near the level they've been playing at last year. The crows have not lost a game at home with a record of 4 - 0 and the magpies are 2 - 2 when on the road. Adelaide's midfielder Dangerfield has been in scintillating form and has even been labelled as the next 'Judd' and i'm expecting him to really dominate tonight. Collingwood are without their best player in the comp in Swan and defender in Reid and I think this will really affect their midfield dominance and their ability to contain Adelaide's forward line. I think Adelaide continues their hot streak and run all over this injury-ravaged Collingwood side.

AFL 2012 Record: 8 - 11

- 8.85 units

[dRavidC]

AFL Friday 1/6

5* St Kilda vs Richmond M/L WON

AFL 2012 Record: 9 - 11

- 3.85 units

[dRavidC]

AFL Sunday 3/6

5* Sydney 1-39 Margin vs Western Bulldogs

[dRavidC]

AFL Sunday 3/6

5* Sydney 1-39 Margin vs Western Bulldogs LOSS

AFL 2012 Record: 9 - 12

- 8.85 units

[dRavidC]

AFL Friday 8/6

5* Carlton vs Geelong U 190.5

AFL Saturday 9/6

5* Richmond -30.5 vs Fremantle

[alister888]

Good luck. I like Richmond -30.5, not so confident about the under in tonights game at Etihad.

[dRavidC]

AFL Friday 8/6

5* Carlton vs Geelong U 190.5 WON

AFL Saturday 9/6

5* Richmond -30.5 vs Fremantle LOSS

AFL 2012 Record: 10 - 13

- 9.3 units

[dRavidC]

5* Collingwood vs Melbourne under 185.5 LOSS

5* Mitch Clark Most Goals @ 5.00 LOSS

AFL 2012 Record: 11 - 14

+ 5.7 units

[dRavidC]

5* Collingwood vs Melbourne under 185.5 LOSS

5* Mitch Clark Most Goals @ 5.00 LOSS

AFL 2012 Record: 11 - 14

+ 5.7 units

5* Mitch Clark Most Goals @ 5.00 WON (just a small correction already counted in records correctly)

[dRavidC]

AFL Thursday 14/6

5* West Coast 1-39 Margin @ 2.20 vs Carlton WON

Tonight's game probably looms as one of the game of the rounds. Eagles have have been understrength the past few weeks with injuries and suspensions but have a credible 3-2 record in their past 5 games. They welcome back Shuey butt lose Waters. The blues who we thought were just having the odd bad game when they lose to the saints in round 7, has really turned into a serious issue. The blues have had a disappointing month with a 1-4 record in their past 5 games. But last week, Carlton looked probably the best they have looked in the past 5 games in a close 12 point loss to Geelong. A bit of bright news for the blues is that they welcome back key midfielder Scotland and Carrazo. This game shapes up as an extremely important game for them, with hawthorn and collingwood their next opponents losses in this game and the next 2 would would their finals campaign in serious doubt. The eagles have not lost in Perth since Round 3, 2011 and whilst they haven't been at their best I think they'll have enough to overcome a desperate blues side who at this stage just look a class below. I think there is greater value in the eagles 1-39 than the -27.5 and hence will be my play for tonight.

AFL 2012 Record: 12 - 14

+ 11.7 units

[dRavidC]

Write-up analysis added.

[dRavidC]

Eagles 1-39 was never really in doubt, even when carlton led at the end of the 3rd qtr. Gotta feel for anyone who took eagles at the line. they look destined to run away from it but carlton managed to kick garbage goals to cover the spread. and that's why I love playing margins in the AFL

[dRavidC]

AFL Friday 15/6

2* Adelaide vs St Kilda Nick Riewoldt Most Goals @ 6.50 LOSS

It might not be the safest or greatest % play but I really do like Riewoldt at those odds. I don't reallly like to play top goal scorer unless it's a really dominant forward like a Barry Hall, Lance Franklin etc. Riewoldt had a monster game last weekend and even though it was against Gold Coast, he managed to kick his greatest haul of 7 goals in almost 2 years. I think he carries that form into this match, even though historically he does not do too well at this stadium (AAMI). I don't really have proper analysis for this play or any great deal of confidence - it's an instinct play and at 6.50 is great value.

For those looking for a play on the game, gun-to-my-head I would lean Adelaide 1-39.

AFL 2012 Record: 12 - 15

+ 9.7 units

[dRavidC]

AFL Saturday 16/6

5* GWS +60.5 vs Richmond WON

AFL 2012 Record: 13 - 15

+ 14.25 units

[dRavidC]

AFL Friday 22/6

3* Sydney 1-39 Margin vs Geelong

AFL 2012 Record: 14 - 15

+ 18.00 units

[dRavidC]

wow a very very very lucky win. sydney led by 38 at half time only to find themselves trailing by 2 late in the 4th quarter before Everitt marked and kicked the winner!

Once again, this match is a reminder of why the 1-39 margin bet is so much better (%-wise and value-wise) than the handicap when two decent teams play each other.