2012 PGA yearlong picks

[valaub04]

WGC 3rd Rd:

8** John Senden -140 Senden is 1st in the tour in ball striking, 2nd in total driving and 3rd in scoring. Moon Bae has struggled on the opening 9 holes and if that happens today he will be in a big hole.

4** Dustin Johnson -150 Wilson survives by making pars. That won't work today as long as Johnson keeps it out of the cacti. I just wanted to use the word cacti. That is all. BOL.

[valaub04]

solid start. /sarcasm.

0-2 -17.2u YTD.

[valaub04]

WGC Doral 4th round matchup:

Schwartzel -105 over Donald 6**

Also, made a really long post on Wednesday night but it never got posted somehow... anyway, I'll condense it:

Masters to win futures:
2** Tiger
2** Rory
1* Phil

If anyone wants the field over those 3 PM me.

[valaub04]

Masters Bets, and as tradition holds, this tourney has my GOY.. always does.

PGA GOY 20** Geoff Ogilvy -145 over Paul Casey. Reasoning: Ogilvy has traditionally played well at Augusta, and has finished ahead of Casey each of the past 3 years. Casey has struggled mightily this year and is still attempting to recover from an injury that sidelined him for the fall and early 2012. Casey has not made the cut in an event where a cut is possible this year (he played 4 rounds at the Doral WGC event but there was no cut). This is a strong PLAY AGAINST Casey rather than an endorsement of Ogilvy. I do think Ogilvy will make the cut, though... I think Casey will be 2 rounds and out or could even withdraw.

72 Hole Matchups:
10** Couples +115 over YE Yang. Couples is great at AGNC. Yang... not.
8** Cabrera -115 over Harrington. See above.

Props:
2** Aaron Baddeley Misses cut +145
1** Padraig Harrington misses cut +120
2** Tiger Woods 1st round under 70.5 (early tee time, low winds, softer and perfect greens)
1** Luke Donald 1st round under 70.5 see above

I think there will be some great 3rd and 4th round matchup values as I see the strong possibility of young/inexperienced players getting off to a fast start with soft conditions... only to come back to reality with the weekend pressure. Look forward to this tournament and any questions/comments you have.

[valaub04]

1st round Matchups:

4** Ryan Palmer -145 over Ross Fisher
4** Steve Stricker -160 over Padraig Harrington.

I parlayed them as well on 5Dimes but won't count that. 5D is THE PLACE to bet golf, if you degenerates are so inclined.

[valaub04]

Masters Bets, and as tradition holds, this tourney has my GOY.. always does.

PGA GOY 20** Geoff Ogilvy -145 over Paul Casey. Reasoning: Ogilvy has traditionally played well at Augusta, and has finished ahead of Casey each of the past 3 years. Casey has struggled mightily this year and is still attempting to recover from an injury that sidelined him for the fall and early 2012. Casey has not made the cut in an event where a cut is possible this year (he played 4 rounds at the Doral WGC event but there was no cut). This is a strong PLAY AGAINST Casey rather than an endorsement of Ogilvy. I do think Ogilvy will make the cut, though... I think Casey will be 2 rounds and out or could even withdraw.

72 Hole Matchups:
10** Couples +115 over YE Yang. Couples is great at AGNC. Yang... not.
8** Cabrera -115 over Harrington. See above.

Props:
2** Aaron Baddeley Misses cut +145
1** Padraig Harrington misses cut +120
2** Tiger Woods 1st round under 70.5 (early tee time, low winds, softer and perfect greens)
1** Luke Donald 1st round under 70.5 see above

I think there will be some great 3rd and 4th round matchup values as I see the strong possibility of young/inexperienced players getting off to a fast start with soft conditions... only to come back to reality with the weekend pressure. Look forward to this tournament and any questions/comments you have.

GOY cashes early as Casey misses cut as expected. +20u
Lost every single prop listed -7u
Couples and Cabrera plays pending.
1st round plays go 0-1-1 -5.8u

Masters to date = +6.2u
Still have pending futures on Tiger Rory, Phil.
Love some matchups tomorrow. Mahan over Harrington will be a play unless I have to lay -500 or something. Westwood over Oosthuizen will be a play. Looks like lots of great matchups and lots of potential plays depending on prices.

[valaub04]

3rd round plays:
10** Hunter Mahan -150 over Harrington
6** Westwood -150 over Oosthuizen
6** Ogilvy +100 over Haas
4** Parlay of Mickelson over Singh + Rory over Sergio pays 5.7**

[valaub04]

4th round picks:

Lots of plays today... BOL

4** Keegan Bradley -135 over Fowler
4** Cabrera +135 over Stricker
6** Tiger -.5 -160 over Singh (today is the day to play Tiger... no pressure and good round gives impression he is BACk... yet again).
6** Ogilvy -.5 -120 over Stallings
8** Westwood -180 over Lawrie. Damn the juice.
4** Westwood top 5 +185
4** Watson top 5 +105

I think Oosthuizen and Watson might be worth a small win play. Hanson has been great but under pressure it is easier to move the ball L/R or R/L rather than hit it straight. Hitting it straight all the time is hard. It's even harder when you could turn coal into diamonds all by yourself.

[valaub04]

3rd round plays:
10** Hunter Mahan -150 over Harrington
6** Westwood -150 over Oosthuizen
6** Ogilvy +100 over Haas
4** Parlay of Mickelson over Singh + Rory over Sergio pays 5.7**

Not sure where this reply went. 1-2-1 -7u for 3rd round. -.8 units for Masters in 4th round.

[valaub04]

4th round picks:

Lots of plays today... BOL

4** Keegan Bradley -135 over Fowler
4** Cabrera +135 over Stricker
6** Tiger -.5 -160 over Singh (today is the day to play Tiger... no pressure and good round gives impression he is BACk... yet again).
6** Ogilvy -.5 -120 over Stallings
8** Westwood -180 over Lawrie. Damn the juice.
4** Westwood top 5 +185
4** Watson top 5 +105

I think Oosthuizen and Watson might be worth a small win play. Hanson has been great but under pressure it is easier to move the ball L/R or R/L rather than hit it straight. Hitting it straight all the time is hard. It's even harder when you could turn coal into diamonds all by yourself.

6-1 +24u for Sunday plays.
1-1 +2.3u for remaining 72 hole matchups.
-5u on win futures.

+20.5 units for Masters.

+9.3u YTD. Like oosthuisen in playoff, fwiw.

[valaub04]

RBC Heritage 3rd Round:

4** Brandt Snedeker -115 over Zach Johnson
4** Gary Christian +115 over Chez Reavie

BOL.

[valaub04]

TPC 1st Round

Justin Rose -110 over Adam Scott 9**