SANFL Grand Final?

Lookingtostart · 10-08-11, 09:47 AM

They played three times during home/away and none in the finals until now. In three games, the winning margins have been 19 (Central's home), 6 (Eagle's home), 15 (Eagle's home), all to Centrals. This makes it an average of 13.333333333 pts to Centrals. This will be played at Football Park.

Research indicates that Centrals have a key out, and that's about it in terms of injury differential. There may be more, but nothing major.

Centrals have been dominant for the last decade, and the public know it:

YEAR

SCORE
MARGIN
CROWD

2010

Central 10.11 (71) Norwood 9.11 (65) 6 points

2009

Central 13.14 (92) Sturt 7.12 (54) 38 points

2008

Central 17.10 (112) Glenelg 11.10 (76) 36 points

2007

Central 16.11 (107) North 5.12 (42) 65 points

2006

Eagles 17.19 (121) Central 7.3.(45) 76 points

2005

Central 15.14.(104) Eagles 11.10 (76) 28 points

2004

Central 23.15 (153) Eagles 4.4 (28) 125 points

2003

Central 17.9 (111) West 11.11 (77) 34 points

2002

Sturt 13.14 (92) Central 6.9 (45) 47 points

2001

Central 10.11 (71) Eagles 4.8 (32) 39 points

2000

Central 8.13 (61) Eagles 5.9 (39) 22 points

1999

Port 14.17 (101) Norwood 14.9 (93) 8 points

Surely, not another one to the Centrals!

One reasons why the spread doesn't match the average winning margin may be the fact that most people in Adelaide don't give a dam about SANFL until the GF. They know Centrals are unstoppable this end of the season, and are heavily backing Centrals. Bookies will probably want more action on the other side. Of course, there may be many other smaller (or not so smaller) reasons.

Also, I'm not sure on either team's record at Football Park.

I'm thinking of going the Eagles spread, ML looks decent also if you feel adventurous.

Aussports · 10-08-11, 06:39 PM

eagles definitely have a chance this year but i would still only take the points
no way i would go against the dogs in the final, they have a habit of winning
however central has some defensive players out
line has moved from 19.5 to 21.5, public always backs central
personally ill play +21.5, i think it will be a close one with the dogs just winning

Lookingtostart · 10-08-11, 08:41 PM

Thanks, I was procrastinating, I needed someone else's opinion

.

Lookingtostart · 10-09-11, 02:24 AM

Great Game!

Aussports · 10-09-11, 02:41 AM

sure was, glad i took the points in the end was sure central was gonna come back