Probability Based NRL

**goty0405** · 07-29-11, 01:01 AM

Today:
Manly @ 1.52
Brisbane -12.5pts @ 1.89

Manly look too good and I like them at the above price but there is also worthy value at ~ 1.90 for -5.5pts. The total points line (37.5) seems right as my prediction has it at 37-38.

Brisbane's match odds are too low but I took them to beat their -12.5pts line. The Total points line (39.5) may be a little high as my simulation had it around 37-38 as well but nothing really to get excited about.

**goty0405** · 07-29-11, 08:49 PM

Up...and down.

Tonight it looks like the play will most likely be North Queensland @ 1.69 with a possibility of switching to play them -3.5pts @ 1.90 depending on how the prices move in the next few hours.

**kingsr** · 07-29-11, 08:53 PM

Where did you get 1.69? Good price!

**goty0405** · 07-29-11, 09:03 PM

Geez you dont miss a beat! I meant 1.66.

I got them at 1.69 on Betfair but factoring in my commission rate it equates to 1.66. I normally post my after-commission price but forgot today.

**goty0405** · 07-30-11, 05:38 PM

I was out with the boys for my bucks last night so I ended up putting a sneaky half unit bet on the Cowboys -3.5pts too. Happy with that result!

**goty0405** · 07-31-11, 07:12 PM

I was out again all day but the plays I made were...

NZ @ 1.40 (won)
Newc @ 1.30 (won)
StG @ 1.15 (lost)

St George can't blame the hoodoo for that one! I only saw the first half and they were blowing the bunnies away and it looked done and dusted. Strange things happen in NRL.

**goty0405** · 08-01-11, 03:25 PM

The Storm were considered good value @ 1.45 yesterday but they certainly made me sweat it!

This Round Stats:
Predicted Team = 6/8 (75%)
Predicted Team beat the spread = 5/8 (62.5%)

Overall Stats:
Predicted Team = 19/24 (79.16%)
Predicted Team beat the spread = 14/24 (58.33%)

I've stopped recording the under/over results for now as I felt they were too inaccurate and I want to tweak how they are estimated. For now (and rest of this season) I'm happy enough seeing how this model goes when picking winners and/or teams to beat the spread.

**kingsr** · 08-01-11, 09:51 PM

Awesome numbers here goty, keep up the great work

**goty0405** · 08-02-11, 03:11 AM

Thanks mate. It definitely has been going pretty well for the last few weeks. Fingers crossed it continues

**goty0405** · 08-03-11, 07:19 PM

Round 22

Wests Tigers vs St George Illawarra
W: 38.46%
S: 61.54%

Canterbury vs North Queensland
C: 35.00%
N: 65.00%

Melbourne vs Penrith
M: 90.55%
P: 9.45%

Brisbane vs New Zealand
B: 59.84%
N: 40.16%

Cronulla vs Gold Coast
C: 80.05%
G: 19.95%

Newcastle vs Canberra
N: 72.44%
C: 27.56%

Manly vs Sydney
M: 94.39%
S: 5.61%

South Sydney vs Parramatta
S: 68.69%
P: 31.31%

**kingsr** · 08-04-11, 01:23 AM

Nth Qld Damn! But i cant bet on my team or against it! FML!

**goty0405** · 08-04-11, 02:36 AM

Haha I've been having good success betting against my beloved Eels

**goty0405** · 08-05-11, 04:41 PM

Last night I played the Cowboys @ 1.87. The less said about that the better.

**kingsr** · 08-05-11, 08:55 PM

One of those times where im thankful for my policy. The dogs played great defense!

**goty0405** · 08-06-11, 01:04 AM

I didnt get to see the game but I was looking at the stats midway through 2nd half and the Cowboys had things in their favour (completion rate, possession, handling errors etc) but just not on the scoreboard. I figured the Bulldogs must have been putting in a good defensive game, damn them!

Today:
Melbourne @ 1.21
Cronulla @ 1.42

Not betting on the Brisbane game as they are a shorter than my simulation expects them to be.

**goty0405** · 08-06-11, 02:22 AM

Adding Brisbane -6.5 @ 2.06 as the ML had no value but I think that's pretty good for Brisbane at home.

**goty0405** · 08-06-11, 05:59 PM

Oh dear. Melbourne the only saving grace so far this weekend and at such short odds it doesn't feel like much of a saver...But these things happen, especially in rugby league where randomness, luck, and referees can change the outcome of game

**hawley** · 08-06-11, 06:55 PM

Originally posted by goty0405

Adding Brisbane -6.5 @ 2.06 as the ML had no value but I think that's pretty good for Brisbane at home.

Not having a go just a question

Brisbane ML had no value around $1.45 yet the Storm did at $1.20ish?

**goty0405** · 08-07-11, 02:35 AM

Originally posted by hawley

Not having a go just a question

Brisbane ML had no value around $1.45 yet the Storm did at $1.20ish?

It's a fair question. I define value by using the team's estimated win chance from my simulations and converting that into a minimum odds threshold that constitutes "value". I then only bet when the actual odds are better than that.

So in the examples you pointed out...
Melbourne were a 90.55% chance which equates to 1.10 (therefore 1.20 is good value)
Brisbane were a 59.84% chance which equates to 1.67 (therefore 1.45 is not good value)

The sneaky bet I put on Brisbane -6.5 was a bit of a fun bet but also following a theory I'm developing around backing home team favourites to beat the spread when certain conditions are met. But the ML bets in this thread are all based on the value formula I explained above.

**goty0405** · 08-07-11, 02:39 AM

And based on the value method I explained in the above post that made the plays for today...

Newcastle @ 1.42
Manly @ 1.29

And thank god they both came off. I'm still -ve for this round but the losses have been close matches that could have gone my way so it's not a big concern.

Tomorrow looks like the Rabbitohs will be the play so once again I'll be spending my monday night barracking against the Eels

**kingsr** · 08-07-11, 03:28 AM

I really like souths play tomorrow, in fact I expect them to win by a decent margin. They've been in pretty good form last couple weeks and are still a chance to make the 8.

**ultrasouth** · 08-08-11, 01:43 AM

Kingsr what do you think of the under/over in that game?

PS:I think the parra scum will steam roll the bunnies.PS:Go the doggies

**dRavidC** · 08-08-11, 01:52 AM

Originally posted by kingsr

I really like souths play tomorrow, in fact I expect them to win by a decent margin. They've been in pretty good form last couple weeks and are still a chance to make the 8.

just had a look at their draw and it's very very very unlikely. their last 2 games are on the road against the two hottest "home" teams going right now in Brisbane and Newcastle. but while the equation still stands, the rabbits will still play like they still have a chance.

**goty0405** · 08-08-11, 02:12 AM

I've gotten on Souths @ 1.71 for tonight.

The discussion about playing intensity is interesting. Souths technically have something to play for with a mathematical chance of the finals and Parramatta is trying to avoid the wooden spoon, especially with the Titans getting a win over the weekend.

The area I always think about with all this motivation guff is not which team is playing for which motivation but which team can handle the pressure (real or imagined) that comes when playing for that specific goal. In reality they are professional sportsman and thre is always "something" that is there for motivation. But in times of special motivation (a milestone game for the captain, mathematical chance of making the 8, avoiding the wooden spoon etc) it doesn't come down to how strong that motivation/reward is but how well the teams can handle that added pressure.

Some teams go up a notch, others choke.

If you wanted to get a bit deeper (too much for here?) then I think the motivation and results of each team on a week-to-week basis shows their underlying ability to deal with pressure. When you boil it down each team does roughly the same physical training, have similar drills, perform similar set moves, and have a handful of "star players", so the real difference is how they (at an individual and team level) compete under pressure.

I'm getting too philosophical here but I'll use an example. If you took every halfback and got them to perform a set task (like kicking a 30m field goal) 100 times then I would expect the results to "tend toward the mean" in that there would be a natural bell curve distribution and no-one would really stand-out. However you take the same drill into game condition, with pressure to win the game, charging defense, and fatigue and this test would highlight those special players who naturally handle pressure well.

Of course its impossible to run that test so I can make these assumptions without being proven wrong.

**kingsr** · 08-08-11, 03:34 AM

That's you analysis for betting Souths? You forgot to conclude that Souths handle pressure better than Parra lol

Good luck, im on the same side!

**goty0405** · 08-08-11, 05:13 AM

Hahaha but I wasn't really referring to the Souths-Eels game and I'm definitely not clever enough to handicap teams based on their motivation level. I was just rambling on a topic I find very interesting.

The Souths bet is looking pretty solid though

**dRavidC** · 08-08-11, 05:16 AM

Originally posted by goty0405

Hahaha but I wasn't really referring to the Souths-Eels game and I'm definitely not clever enough to handicap teams based on their motivation level. I was just rambling on a topic I find very interesting.

The Souths bet is looking pretty solid though

"pretty solid?" that's a bit of an understatement

**goty0405** · 08-08-11, 07:10 PM

This Round Stats:
Predicted Team = 5/8 (62.5%)
Predicted Team beat the spread = 4/8 (50%)

Overall Stats:
Predicted Team = 24/32 (75%)
Predicted Team beat the spread = 18/32 (56.25%)

I've been recording all the prices throughout this time and I plan on doing up some stats on various betting strategies using the predictions but alas the people at work are actually expecting me to do some work today...

**kingsr** · 08-08-11, 09:55 PM

Don't lose your job Gotty lol nice work in here man.

souths! Doesn't get much easier than that!

**goty0405** · 08-11-11, 01:46 AM

Round 23

Penrith vs Wests
P: 35.40%
W: 64.60%

North Queensland vs Brisbane
N: 48.43%
B: 51.57%

New Zealand vs Newcastle
NZ: 45.97%
New: 54.03%

Parramatta vs Manly
P: 6.03%
M: 93.97%

Gold Coast vs Melbourne
G: 4.39%
M: 95.61%

Canberra vs South Sydney
C: 19.36%
S: 80.64%

St George vs Roosters
Stg: 87.80%
Roo: 12.20%

Cronulla vs Canterbury
Cro: 41.54%
Cant: 58.46%

**goty0405** · 08-12-11, 09:34 PM

No action last night but looks like I'll get on a few today. Newcastle were predicted as slight favourites and are > 3.0 so that's great value! In the other two games the favourites (Manly and Melbourne) are very short but are still considered value so they'll be included too.

**goty0405** · 08-14-11, 04:08 AM

Both Souths (1.65) and St George (1.15) were the plays for today. Regrettably so on the latter. The Dragons are just playing rubbish football right now and even though my head thought they shouldn't be as highly rated as they were I stuck with what the system said.

**xxxvince** · 08-14-11, 12:10 PM

dragon cost my parlay.. they were at -900, no way i am picking them ever again

**goty0405** · 08-15-11, 02:19 AM

I can feel your pain mate. I'm up overall for my NRL betting but the recent 4-5 games by the Dragons has cost me a lot.

Tonight I'm hoping Canterbury @ 1.76 can help me round out the week in a positive note

**hawley** · 08-15-11, 02:36 AM

With these low odds do you play to win a unit or risking a unit or just whatever your feeling?

Like the Storm on saturday night? or do you just multi some of them?