State of Origin 2011

[brad89]

Not sure how much interest this will get from SBR posters but thought it would be better to have it's own thread (I posted the NSW lineup in another thread yesterday)

NSW:
1. Josh Dugan - Canberra Raiders
2. Brett Morris - St George Illawarra Dragons
3. Mark Gasnier - St George Illawarra Dragons
4. Michael Jennings - Penrith Panthers
5. Akuila Uate - Newcastle Knights
6. Jamie Soward - St George Illawarra Dragons
7. Mitchell Pearce - Sydney Roosters
8. Jason King - Manly Sea Eagles
9. Michael Ennis - Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
10. Kade Snowden - Cronulla Sharks
11. Beau Scott - St George Illawarra Dragons
12. Greg Bird - Gold Coast Titans
13. Paul Gallen (c) - Cronulla Sharks

14. Ben Creagh - St George Illawarra Dragons
15. Trent Merrin - St George Illawarra Dragons
16. Tim Mannah - Parramatta Eels
17. Dean Young - St George Illawarra Dragons

QLD to be named tomorrow.

[brad89]

Leaked QLD team:
Billy Slater, Darius Boyd, Willie Tonga, Dane Nielsen, Jharal Yow Yeh, Darren Lockyer (c), Johnathan Thurston, Petero Civoniceva, Cameron Smith, Matt Scott, Sam Thaiday, Nate Myles, Ashley Harrison. Interchange: Cooper Cronk, Ben Hannant, Jacob Lillyman, Corey Parker.

Official team announced tomorrow but this "should" be it.

[Beniphone]

Queensland!

[Dr.Gonzo]

Got NSW at

$3.10 to win the first game
$2.95 to win the series

[warriorfan707]

[kingsr]

How could you bet on NSW?

QLD WILL WIN THE 1ST GAME! Bank that shit!

[jgan025]

Betting on NSW is like throwing your money away.
QLD team is looking lethal and will also be playing to give D.Lockyer a fitting send off.
Im glad that a Warrior made it in (Im from NZ) to Origin.

Any leans for the games? QLD -5.5 @ -122 looking good....

[Beniphone]

Everyone that I speak to is gonna be on qld, Puts me off abit. This qld team dosent impress me much, the nsw team is even worse.

If Jennings/uate/Dugan show up a play their best attack this could get interesting

[Beniphone]

Qld will keep it on lockdown, 12 and under could be a decent play. -5.5 is defiantly playable

[jgan025]

Yeah i can see Meninga's boys taking it out - theres just too much talent to lose, just hope its a convincing win.

Had a bad run as of late with the point stars (had Dogg's -5.5 over Raiders and Tigers -6.5 over Panthers this weekend) so might just stick with the ML...

[Bazz27]

Any thoughts on this c/bet player special guys - who to score the most pts, thurston @1.67 (in from 1.83 this arvo) or soward @2.75 (out from 2.50) tie is $7. Was liking that 1.87 before it moved but now not to sure....

[Beniphone]

Thurston will prolly get more shots at goal and has more of a chance then scoring a try compaired to Jamie, not a bad price

[Dr.Gonzo]

I'm still liking NSW although some of the value has been bet out of them.

[Beniphone]

I'm still liking NSW although some of the value has been bet out of them.

What do you see in them bro? You think they win straight up or just cover?

[Dr.Gonzo]

What do you see in them bro? You think they win straight up or just cover?

I see a much better preparation under Stuart. The players are in better spirits are it will show in the performance. Bellamy did a shot job and failed against the big name Melbourne players. He should never have been coach against those guys.

I see the confidence of St.George translating into the Blues. I see a great right side combination of Scott/Soward/Gasnier.

I see a superior forward pack and bench. Many of the QLDers are carrying niggling injuries (Thaiday/Hannat/Scott) or past their best (Petro/Harrison). Parker offers nothing from the bench. He should either start or miss out.

I see a superior backline. The QLD centers are rubbish. A rookie is on one wing and a fullback is on the other. Slater is mistake prone under pressure.

The problem is the great QLD spine. They have an advantage here no question but if NSW are smart they should be able to grind out a win.

[rjc]

I hope your right Gonzo, I'm a NSW boy at heart and would love to see them win up there. But my head will be backing QLD.
The blues will take game two for sure, given they don't chop and change the squad.

[Beniphone]

Fair enough mate

IMO the form of the nsw players this season and the end of last has been far better then qld players, gallen has got to be close to most valuable player this season. But as we have seen the qld guys step it up when they wear the maroon jersey, thiaday/cevi both run and hit harder, thurston/slater always seem to be in the right place.

It will be interesting to see how uate plays, I think he's going to be quite and scared to make mistakes just like when Jennings got his first game last year.

[rjc]

Thoughts on the total gents? it's set at 37.5

[kingsr]

How anyone can bet on NSW is beyond me (no offence)! if you're betting NSW, there is NO logic to it! None at all IMO (again no offence)

Jennings, Dougan, Soward, Pearce CANNOT TACKLE, they are TURNSTILES! Bird and Gallen are thugs and that's it! KING from Manly?? Rubbish! Creagh has tried for years and failed!

Look at Roosters, they shifted Anasta to 5/8 with no Pearce and they win! Jennings was gonna be dropped by Penrith! But he's good enough to make the NSW squad? WTF? Dougan!?!?! The MOST OVERATED player in League! Watch him be exposed! And then we have BIRD! Oh he's an 'origin type player' is what they say. Exactly what is that? A thug? Is that NSW definition of an origin player?

NSW may have a chance in the forwards but the backs are very questionable IMO. I dont think NSW have many points in them. If Sowards kicking game is OFF NSW could easily lose by 20 points plus!

You can argue PASSION and PRIDE will win NSW the game. NSW have NO where near the passion and pride have for the QLD jersey!

QLD - 5.5 is the play. I'll humbly suck my own balls if I'm wrong. I just cannot see NSW winning in QLD, I cant see how! Good Luck QLD have made me so much the last 5 years and just so you all know, I'm from Sydney NSW, so my opinion/analysis is totally unbiased.

[Beniphone]

You can't argue that bird isn't built for origin, he bangs/gets banged and isn't scared for more, I don't care about the bs he's been thru in his life, he's a hard mfuka lol

When Dugan is on he's fukin on, when he played that all-stars game this year he was the best player on the field by s mile.

But yea I agree with you that qld will win, people seem to think it's gonna be a blow out tho, last years team was a pretty damn good team, falau/inglis, if we used this qld line (-5.5) last year only 1/3 games would cover.


Can't wait for tomorrow night

[kingsr]

I dont think it will blow out either. Im predicting Qld by 10-12! NSW would have to get lucky IMO to win. Yes you need to be TOUGH to play SOG but theres no need to be a THUG (bird). Dont compare the ALL Star game to this, completely different kettle of fish!

Oh and btw Manly are specials on Fri night!

[brad89]

How can Dugan be "The MOST OVERATED player in League!" when there are so many people complaining he was picked over Hayne?

Who would you have over Jennings? I guess you will say Idris? You know the guy who was "lost" last time he played on that side of the field and leaks points regardless. You can't say Morris deserves it any more than Jennings.

King, that was a surprise for me too but whatever.

Creagh, if Ricky didn't go for the "pick as many dragons as possible" approach, I don't think (and hope) he wouldn't be picked.

Who would you replace Pearce and Soward with? Mullen and ???

Complaining about Bird making the team?!?!

What is your 17?

[kingsr]

My 17 wouldn't have 7 players chosen from teams in the bottom 6 of the ladder! QLD have won 5 series because they KNOW HOW TO RECRUIT! They choose players from top teams ie melb storm, bris etc. Well done to Ricky Stuart for REALISING and picking plenty of dragon players.

Jennings over Idris? Jennings is a fukn Joke, he's a turnstile! He was going t0 be dropped from his club side! Bad choice IMO, did you see IDRIS in the Australian side? Soward, Jennings, Dugan are all terrible in defense....you will see them exposed.

End of day, doesnt matter who the fuk NSW pick, they cant win! They've gone for mongrel and a big forward pack, thats how theyre gonna try and win the game cos they certainly WILL NOT win the game through their backline!

This is a betting forum, not a big dick contest, dont try and size me up....I been watching and following league probably since before you were born.

[kingsr]

Oh and Im not complaining about Bird, Im happy he is in, he's what i regard as a DOPEY player, so he makes my QLD bet much more easier to win!

[Dr.Gonzo]

Jennings over Idris? Jennings is a fukn Joke, he's a turnstile! He was going t0 be dropped from his club side! Bad choice IMO, did you see IDRIS in the Australian side? Soward, Jennings, Dugan are all terrible in defense....you will see them exposed.

Are you serious? Jamal Idris is a joke. Has got absolutely no idea in defense and is blessed with the speed of Luke Covell. A lazy defender with zero lateral movement and no clue about positional play.

Soward has defended better this year and he is familiar with Scott and Gasiner so I expect him to be fine.

Jennings is playing in a side that doesn't give a fark. He is a classy player and will lift for this game. I'm not worried about his defense up against a nuffie center.

Dugan is no turnstyle. I don't know where you dreamt that one up.

No one will be exposed individually. They might not work as a unit but that is to be expected.

[Dr.Gonzo]

End of day, doesnt matter who the fuk NSW pick, they cant win! They've gone for mongrel and a big forward pack, thats how theyre gonna try and win the game cos they certainly WILL NOT win the game through their backline!

Why won't they score through the backline? They have a great 1-5. Uate and Morris were leading try scores last season. Le Gaz has caused a lot of problems and been setting Nightingale up all season. We know what Dugan and Jennings are capable of they just need to be in a good side to show it. NSW has a better 1-5 without question.

[Dr.Gonzo]

Oh and Im not complaining about Bird, Im happy he is in, he's what i regard as a DOPEY player, so he makes my QLD bet much more easier to win!

Bird has had a good game in pretty much every origin he has played in. I don't get the hate.

[Dr.Gonzo]

This is a betting forum, not a big dick contest, dont try and size me up....I been watching and following league probably since before you were born.

Yeah but your a Berries fan so you must have a few Kangaroos lose in the paddock

[brad89]

This is a betting forum, not a big dick contest, dont try and size me up....I been watching and following league probably since before you were born.

We are discussing the lineups which directly effect the outcome of the game/bet, I believe you were first.

I also don't think you understand the role of individual positions.

We don't know how to pick players but QLD recruit well? They stick with the exact side barring injury/suspension, club form doesn't factor into it. Out of the bottom teams who would you pick for QLD that they have left out?

We pick 4 centres per game with one on the bench and other stupid shit. This year we have people playing in their positions and you complain but can't/won't name your ideal 17.

Did Jennings' CvC performance match his club games for the year?

Has got absolutely no idea in defense and is blessed with the speed of Luke Covell.

Hahahaha, lost my shit

Agree with everything you said.

Edit - I just realised... You would have Wallace because he plays for a top team

[benrama]

I'll be supporting NSW, and NSW have a good side. Smart move by Stuart choosing such a Dragons heavy team. I still think that NSW really only have an advantage in the centres, and you can argue back and forward about other positions but it's pretty close either way. What will make up for it for QLD is 3 things: 1) This is Lockyer's last series and the boys will be pumped for it; 2) QLD has 4 times the Origin experience of NSW - players will tell you that State of Origin is NOTHING like the regular premiership, experience counts; 3) The game is being played at Suncorp, and the last two games where a Suncorp game was played with the series not decided was 2010 and 2008. QLD won these games 34-6 and 30-0.

I still see this game being close and can't pull the trigger on QLD -6. I think I'll sit this one out and just enjoy it.

[Gee]

I want action on this game, but looks like one thats too hard to bet.

My girl just called me and said she won't be home tonight - out with her parents, so I'm pretty keen to have some drinks and watch origin... just need to find a decent play boys.

sportal write up is hillarious: "The Blues last tasted success in 2005, back when little Johnny was still running the show in Canberra and Justin Bieber was just an annoying little pre-pubescent prat with a whiny voice. Bieber is still waiting for puberty to arrive and Blues fans are still waiting for a series victory."

Anyway, I'm not a huge NRL man, but thinking of taking the square over for the action? Need someone to tell me it isn't a good idea...

[benrama]

Gee, what I don't like about the over is that this game is in some ways a proxy of a game of Storm/Brisbane (10 of 17 players for QLD) vs St George (7 of 17 players for NSW).

If you look at the ladder this season, St George have allowed 10 points per game, Storm 15 and Brisbane 14, they are defensive powerhouses and know how to man up properly in defense, hold solid formations, minimise penalties, etc.

The last 6 games have gone over the 38 mark, yet this game is at 36.5 (and being juiced at Pinny as we speak), this tells me that the books are playing their card as the Under.

Another X factor is some of the wind that has hit NSW today moving far enough up the east coast to effect Brisbane tonight. I'm keeping a careful eye on this from the BOM, http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60...01.94576.shtml

[Gee]

Thanks Ben. Never a good idea to bet against people who make a living capping these games

I'm going to wait till just before game time and whether there is a good tennis match on before deciding whether to bet this game.

[Meyhem]

please dont mention tennis in this thread ever again....

[Ben Franklin]

NSW +6 seems like the only play to make in this one. Goes right down to the wire IMO. Might sprinkle a little on NSW h2h as well. GL