fox-wednesday horsies

picantel · 03-08-06, 03:21 AM

Northfield:

Race 1: #1 Love That Jate. This is a field full of crap. I will take the backclass and the second tier on what is assumed to be a cold night. Grismore is jumping on the #1 who got parked for over a quarter last race. With that show of early speed and the complete lack of anything resembling early speed in that race I am hoping that grismore uses the rail to his advantage and the #9 rushes underneathe him to take the 2hole. The #9 really had no chance last week behind bad cover and coming from 8th. My play is a 9-1-2.

Race 2: #9 One Special Queen. McKirgan knows trotters well and this one also inherits the second tier. He did break last time which worries me though but McKirgan had some wicked early speed(for this level at least) and looked like a clear cut 2nd before he went off on a gallop. The #2 gets Schwartz on him instead of the usual trainer which is not much of an upgrade but his last 3 trips have been parked, used and park, and parked. Running backwards may be an improvement and he will be gunning for the lead. With the lack of early speed in the #1 I am hoping the #9 makes a quick 1st over rush to settle in 1st or the 2hole. My play is a 9-2-4

Race 3: #4 Rinestone On Fire. There are a few horses with a legitimate chance of winning here but I like the #4. The problem first- he has not raced since August 2005. In his qualifier he went 1st over and closed 2 in the stretch. The winner, sweetest bunny, closed 9 in the stretch which is pretty impressive I may add. However, Sweetest Bunny came back in his first race to run a 1:57'1 which would beat this field by about 20 lengths so that makes the 1st over qualifying run of the #4 a little more impressive. The #3 looks decent but has a wee bit of a breaking problem. The #7 intrigues with a nice time 2 starts back and a decent play 1st over last week. My play is a 4-3-7.

Race 4: #1 Lonesome Fella. Ok I think that Sturgeon drives like a fucking pussy but most of this horses wins have come from the rail. Now comes the huh ML plays of the day. Two starts back the #1 beats the #7 by 2 lengths. Last start the #7(5/2) beats the #4(4/5) by a mere 1/4 of a length. The #4 rushed for the lead from the 4hole and the #7 got the 2hole trip. Now the #7 who barely won as second choice is 7/2 ML and the #4 who barely lost and is now inside of the #7 is 12/1. Grismore also took him over the 10/1 ML. Confusing yes but all this means is I am staying far away from the #7 and will also be watching the odds on the #4 who will definately go for the lead. There is alot of early play in this race so if the #1 does not leave I will be screwed. Finally I like the #9 with the driver change and class drop. My play is a 1-9-4.

Race 5: #4 HR Absolute Gunner. I hate faves but how can you go against this one. Looks to be inline for an easy front end lead and there is not much early speed in this race. I am thinking maybe slower fractions so I will be taking him over the #1 who should get a 2hole trip. Not impressive his last few starts though. My play is a 4-1-6.

Race 6: #1 Chips Fly. Guilty as charged. Yes I am chasing. It stands to reason if you park a horse from the 2nd tier and the 5 positions and suddenly you are given the rail then you leave- simple as that. Realistically though I can see at least 5 horses with a very good shot at winning. Also, I did not miss the driver change on the #6 nor Merrimans choice in the #8. Therefore, the luck of the Irish is needed to win this race. Screw the faves. My play is a 1-6-8.

Race 7: #4 Tivo. By the great beard of Zeus where do they come up with these nags. I debated flipping a coin in this race but instead decided that Aaron merriman was a 50% improvement over Lanny Merriman. Did Grismore have a choice of the 3,4 though I am not sure. hmm. I also debated taking the #9 strictly for his name. When it came down to it I saw a speed dual forming and am hoping for a 2nd over trip. My play is a 4-1-9.

Race 8: #4 Laser Gal. Show me the longshot baby. Broke last time to settle in *gasp* last place but rushed up the 10 length gap to catch the field. That will usually do in a horse right there but wait there is more. He actually closed 2 more in the stretch to get 6th place and then was moved up into the money baby.. Two starts back he wiped the #3 with his 9/2 ML off the map. I am hoping to see a non pussy drive and a straight wire to wire win. With Wyers though who knows. My play is a 4-7-1.

Race 9: #2 Chairman Stan A. This race is pretty simple. The #2 wins by a football field if he stays flat. A big if though considering he broke his last 2. I love how he lost by 2 in his qualifier 2 starts back against Spastic who is I believe racing in open at the meadows. His time 3 starts back would leave him finishing right around the time the rest of the horses hit the 3/4 pole. The #1 with Grismore should be banging out hard for the lead or the 2hole. The #4 was used a tad late but flew down the last 1/2 of the stretch. My play is 2-1-4.

Race 10: #2 Stand Tall McGraw. This is simply a value play with the 10/1 ML and an inside post. Hoping he leaves and gets a decent trip but I am not betting the house and children on it. My play is a 2-5-1.

Race 11: #9 Cinderella's Arn. Here comes my biggest play of the night on the worst driver and bane of my existence- Jim Larrabee. Left last time and actually made a good move to settle in 4th. When he came out 2nd over last race he waited an entire .2 seconds before going 3wide with Larrabee's front end or die trying approach. Yes he was easily outclosed by the #3 but the #3 had a much easier trip and was not used hard in the beginning. My play is a 9-3-1.

Race 12: #4 Itssilentbutdeadly. Comes off a stratch sick but Grismore chose him over the 3,5 who were past faves over this ame field. Won 4 of 5 this year so any super short price is not worth playing. There is alot of early speed in this race so the first 1/4 should be entertaining. because of that I am gonna squeek the #9 and a possible close on the ticket. My play is a 4-9-2.

Race 13: #1 Lil Star Lee. Ok there are no front enders in this race. Not one. The #1 had the rail last week and settled in a comfortable 6th. Duh. Note to Joyner- if you do not leave you do not win. The #4 I expect to go out banging tonight and I am hoping the #1 is smart enough to make it interesting to the first 1/4. My play is a 1-5-8.

Race 14: #9 Jack Honore. Taking the 10/1 ML quite happily. The #1 ML fave wins on the inside with early speed and the #9 is also an early banging with same bad recent trips. I fully expect the driver to not drive like a girl on the #9 and take the 2hole. My play is a 9-1-7.

picantel · 03-08-06, 07:07 PM

I will post the results here although I have stuff to do in an hour.

Race 1:
My pick: 9-1-2
Result: 1-9-2
1st over. forced 3 wide. closed a ton

Race 2:
My pick: 9-2-4
Result: 8-5-3
impeded by breakers in the race

Race 3:
My picks: 4-3-7
Result: 3-5-2
just got wiped out of the race. 15 back at 3/4

Race 4:
My picks: 1-9-4
Result: 4-1-6-9
damn damn damn

kdmfox · 03-08-06, 09:04 PM

pic ... Phoenicia H. is in Thurs. night ... ML 5/2 ... She's dropping and I suspect she'll go higher off that last line ... Several others look pretty good.

The good news is she's in the 1st race so we don't have to wait for the suffering.

picantel · 03-09-06, 01:22 AM

If I cannot triple my money off her then she can bite my ass after those last 2 races.

picantel · 03-09-06, 01:26 AM

Actually screw that horse. I am going with Tuff As Tuff. Yah off a break but this horse will be flying down the stretch if he tries. Check out his times last year.

kdmfox · 03-09-06, 08:25 AM

Originally posted by picantel

Actually screw that horse. I am going with Tuff As Tuff. Yah off a break but this horse will be flying down the stretch if he tries. Check out his times last year.

Tuff As Tug ... Yeah broke at 3/5, decent record, driver change to MacDonnell ... Huge 3q move 2 back ... 10/1 ML ... Will be watching the board on this one.

First day off in ages ... Taking my mother out for lunch ... I'll see what she thinks ... Gonna get a jump on Sat. this afternoon ... Programs should be up.

picantel · 03-09-06, 01:54 PM

horses to watch. let me know what you think of the replays.

3/6/06

Meadowlands
Race 1: #9 Hit Away

Dover
Race 2: #7 Cheyenne Jeff

Also in the last at woodbine tonight let me know what you think of the #3 Velvet N Pearls. He was bet down pretty good from his ML last week and came on strongly in the stretch. Now he has a decent post and is a good trip from outclosing the field with an 8/1 ML. What do you think of these horses.

picantel · 03-09-06, 01:55 PM

I forgot. Did you see that close from DM billy the kid the other night. He freakin flew down the stretch but just came from too far back. If he is in a better post position next week I am betting the bank on him.

kdmfox · 03-09-06, 07:23 PM

Originally posted by picantel

horses to watch. let me know what you think of the replays.

3/6/06

Meadowlands
Race 1: #9 Hit Away

Dover
Race 2: #7 Cheyenne Jeff

Also in the last at woodbine tonight let me know what you think of the #3 Velvet N Pearls. He was bet down pretty good from his ML last week and came on strongly in the stretch. Now he has a decent post and is a good trip from outclosing the field with an 8/1 ML. What do you think of these horses.

I watched the replays ... Cheyenne Jeff was a bit lethargic most of that race albeit had a nice close ... Could have been a combination of renewed life and the front backing up ... Also that race was on 3/8.

Watched Hit Away, also raced on 3/8 ... Eh.

DM Billy The Kid was impressive and will put him in my Virtual Stable.