valaub04's season golf thread

[valaub04]

looking at 1 "play against" this week.

Matt Kuchar -120 over D. Johnson
Hunter Mahan -115 over D. Johnson.

4 units each on 1-10 scale. GLTA.

[valaub04]

2nd round play.

Kuchar -155 over Furyk. 6.2 units to win 4 units. @ BookMaker.

[valaub04]

the play against was a good strategy as Johnson missed the cut. the "real" matt kuchar didn't make it to the course yesterday, so i'm at 2-1 +1.8u going into 3rd round.

[valaub04]

3 units on Couples +105 over Holmes.

Couples, when healthy and playing well, is as good as anyone in the world with those same conditions. He's also playing at a course that he has traditionally been great at. If he's healthy going into the Masters he will be a huge prop bet against whatever Champions tour guy they put him in a matchup with..... if books are dumb enough to do that again.

[valaub04]

Couples with pretty easy W.

3-1 +4.95u ytd.

[gwiz]

good call on couples

I liked him but wasn't brave enough

[valaub04]

Playing Casey at -250 for 6 units. Not a brave play but should win easily.

Would lean to Van Pelt, Haas, and Kuchar as well.

[valaub04]

4-1 +10.95u. Couldn't have capped Casey more incorrectly but still got a win. Leaning towards a big play on Mickelson tomorrow and will verify in the morning.

[valaub04]

Playing Mickelson for 10u. Line moved up to -160 so I should have placed it last night. Also on Cink but that has already started so it won't count either way here.

[valaub04]

Ouch. BIG ouch. -16 units today, 4-2 -5.05u YTD. Was big on Cink, but thankfully bigger on Mahan with a big comeback on the back nine. Tourney is completely wide open now... How would you have felt if you were offered McIlroy +6 holes and you would have still lost. Fowler looked possessed but I like Kuchar tomorrow. Very interesting golf today... Love this tourney.

[valaub04]

Plays for Friday are:

Kuchar Even over Fowler 4*
Donald -180 over Manassero 6*
Crane -140 over Jimenez 6*

Kuchar will bore Fowler so much he falls asleep and gets DQ'ed. Donald will go completely out of character and taunt Manassero about how sick his idol Ballesteros is. Crane gets the nod because he is experiencing zone. He could also use the snake shaker or the sledge wand if really needed. (if you have no idea what I'm talking about search Ben crane workout on YouTube )

[valaub04]

6-3 -3.45u YTD. Unfortunately the posted units doesn't come close to the carnage that Crane resulted.

Saturday I'm All In on Kaymer -185 over Jimenez. 10 units.

[valaub04]

7-3 +6.55u YTD.

Honda Classic 72 hole matchups:

Yang -130 over Kim 6**
Overton -115 over Vegas 4**
Gay -115 over Marino 4**

good luck.

[gwiz]

good luck V

[valaub04]

7-3 +6.55u YTD.

Honda Classic 72 hole matchups:

Yang -130 over Kim 6**
Overton -115 over Vegas 4**
Gay -115 over Marino 4**

good luck.

tourney update. 2-0 on 72 hole matchups with Vegas having to hole a 15 footer to make the cut and avoid sweep, but still up nicely in that match.

9-3 +16.55u YTD now. Saturday matchups posted in a bit.

[valaub04]

1 play for Saturday.

Barnes -120 over Gainey. 3**

[valaub04]

Overton wins 72 hole match easily. Record now 10-3-1 +20.55u YTD.

BOL.

[valaub04]

tourney matchups:

woods +100 over kaymer 2**
mickelson +110 over mcdowell 2**

[valaub04]

saturday matchup:

villegas -110 over vagas 4**. going to start playing against vagas as he's starting to hit the wall from playing too much.

[gwiz]

I took villegas too,he is hitting his irons better and making more putts

[valaub04]

too bad for us he didn't do that today.

10-4-1 +16.15u YTD.

what site do you use? I'd like to have access to handicapped matches. Also, Bookmaker doesn't post WIN odds after tourney starts.

[gwiz]

I use betjamaica and they suck compared to 5dimes

5dimes has a bunch more matchups and they are up early,betjam is limited and late

I tried to sign up to 5dimes but screwed up and didn't use the link from sbr, so I am stuck with betjam

[valaub04]

tourney matchups a wash 11-5-1 +16.15u YTD.

[valaub04]

Bay Hill:

4 units Tiger -155 over Phil
4 units Furyk -115 over Vijay
4 Units Ryan Moore -145 over O'hair

All parlayed for 1 unit to win 4.

Lines @ 5Dimes.

[valaub04]

OK, so when I saw this line I immediately thought something was wrong.... and I may be "Joe Square Public" but I'm going to pay to see it b/c most recent (and today's performances) indicate to me this is a play to HAMMER. I'm jumping out of my normal 1-10 scale for a 15** play... usually reserved for majors, etc.

15** Tiger -.5 shots -109 over D. Johnson

I'll also have a 3 man parlay up in a bit... lucky to hit one today with Choi/Hanson/Moore.... 1 more tomorrow.

[valaub04]

3 man par:
Tiger -130 over D. Johnson
J. Rose -140 over Z. Johnson
P. Hanson -145 over D.A. Points

1 unit to win 4.12

[valaub04]

1-1 on the day but +14 units. Tiger with an easy 6 stroke win.

YTD 12-6-1 +30.15u

[valaub04]

Furyk and Moore both winners as opponents missed cut. Tiger and tourney parlay looking good.

14-6-1 +38.15u YTD

[valaub04]

round 3

fowler -125 over howell III 4***

[valaub04]

3rd round winner with Fowler. 13-6-1 +42.15u YTD

[valaub04]

tiger and phil both sh*t their pants today, match ends in a tie. parlay reduced to 2-person but wins and gets +2.16u.

14-6-2 +44.31u ytd. nice run, hope somebody is making cash.

[valaub04]

29-18-2 +36.28 units YTD

Decided there was 1 play I was going to make on the Malaysian Open.

1st round Martin Kaymer -125 over McIlroy. McIlroy with much less travel/rest time than Kaymer and I'm betting there are still plenty of Demon's in Rory's head.

2 units. Starts at 1am eastern time (about 3.5 hours from now).

[valaub04]

29-19-2 +33.78U ytd

Back to work....

Tourney Matchups:
Aaron Baddeley +130 over F. Molinari 7** tourney BB
P. Harrington +105 over J. Rose 4**
Jason Dufner -125 over R. Barnes 2**


1st Round:
Harrington -130 over Gay 2**
OOsthuizen +100 over Cabrera 1**
Poulter -140 over Villegas 2**

[valaub04]

29-19-2 +33.78U ytd

Back to work....

Tourney Matchups:
Aaron Baddeley +130 over F. Molinari 7** tourney BB
P. Harrington +105 over J. Rose 4**
Jason Dufner -125 over R. Barnes 2**


1st Round:
Harrington -130 over Gay 2**
OOsthuizen +100 over Cabrera 1**
Poulter -140 over Villegas 2**

3-3 +5.5 units on the above plays. 32-22-2 +39.28u YTD.

Round 3 plays in a bit.

[Giroux]

Nice to have Baddeley locked up after two days!