Formula 1 - Singapore Grand Prix

Premierr23 · 09-25-10, 08:46 AM

vettel all the way

Optional · 09-25-10, 10:20 AM

Oh Boy... did that suck.

Alonso pulls pole out of his behind. Vettel and Webber choke on their final flying laps and end up 2nd and 5th, and Kubica gets it done to make Q3.

Aaargh. Did more than I usually risk there.

Have to think about the race now. At least Vettel will be better odds now. :\

shoebox · 09-25-10, 08:15 PM

It happens you will get em next time

hedgejob · 09-26-10, 05:22 AM

Button podium 2.830. He's got 2 complete dickheads in front on him, one of them will do something stupid.

alias69 · 09-26-10, 05:46 AM

ferrari has fastest car, either alonso or hamilton will win. vettel too much off a risk. button smokey. webber chance but only podium. bol

Optional · 09-26-10, 06:10 AM

Sinapore Grand Prix bets

Thanks Shoebox

At the risk of becoming a 3 time loser, I am going to back against Alonso again in the race.

Alonso has been prone to bad starts more often than expected this year, and I suspect part of the problem is his gearbox and clutch catch point tuning on the starting grid. It looks like the track may still be damp for the start, which could exacerbate any issues.

This is also the 3rd race on this engine for Ferrari, both cars experienced gearbox issues during practice/quali, and the time that Alonso put in to grab pole, compared with the rest of the weekend, suggests Ferrari had turned his engine right up, and were making the most of engine over-run to feed their blown diffuser.

These engines are built to blow up after a given usage life, and IF Ferrari have been pushing it hard in Quali using an older engine already, I think the chances of him expiring, or choosing to use a lower power setting in the race to ensure he finishes becomes likely.

Anyway, that's my justification for sticking to my 2 time loser play. Follow at your own risk.

I still think Red Bull are in the prime position to win. Probably via Vettel, who is still a bit under fair odds at +245 imho.

But I am not dismissing the possibility that if Webber gets behind him, the team will arrange for the Australian to pass for the good of the drivers championship chase. (many would disagree that is much of a possibility in this race though)

Webber has looked below par in several sessions so far, but I am loathe to write him off. The +1600 on him at 5Dimes is good value imho. he will need to get past Button at the start to have any real chance of taking the win (without unusual luck), but I think he has an excellent chance to do that, being on the clean side of the track compared to Button at the start, which again I think may cause additional issues if it's damp.

For a similar reason Hamilton should have a good chance of taking Vettel at the first corner, and if Alonso fluffs the start, possibly the race lead. I placed .5u on Hamilton to lead the first lap at +1050

Another profitable play this year has been laying the Pole position holder to lead the first lap. Haven't got the numbers handy, but it's well over 50% of races have seen the pole man lose the lead on lap 1 this year. You can get +222 for anyone but Alonso to lead lap one, which I think is a 'decent' play too.

The McLarens have popped up with better than expected qualifying times, and then ended up slightly off the pace once in the race. They did pop a good quali performance again, but not good enough to challenge for the front row, so I am half expecting them to struggle to keep up with the Red Bulls and maybe Alonso for race distance. If the track conditions are changeable, both McLaren world champion drivers could make up the deficit.

I've taken a Vettel/Webber one-two at +2500 and a Webber/Vettel at +5000 (for small bets only)

I also took these 2 head 2 heads.

Webber (+450) v Alonso
Hamilton (-182) v Button

If you are playing the matchups at 5Dimes. I think Glock over Heikki at +105 is the best bet. Webber over Button as dog, and Alguesauri over Kobayashi as the dog are also value.

I took Hamilton for a podium, early, at +160. Unfortunately he is now -164 and too short to play.

I also took a Red Bull car to win at -161 early on for 4 units... but that is now at +235 and I am tossing up adding another unit or two.

For a points finish (top 10) Vettel, Webber, Hamilton and Button are all at around -400 and with consistency in this race Vital to staying in the championship race, I'd say that is good value on all of them, for short price bettors. For longer odds value, Heidfeld in his return race at +200 and Algeursauri at +170 look ok to me.

In the Safety Car? market. Backing it is -350, and although I think it will happen (due the no runoff nature of the street circuit here), that price is way too short.

Total Classified Drivers u/o 18.5 market. I'd take the over at +140 if I had to choose, as I don't see more than 2 new team cars failing to finish, and it would take 6 established runners DNFing for the under to win... which again I don't see happening. (maybe rain in the air is bringing money for the under?)

Winning Margin market. Just not sure this week. Under 10 seconds is -180 and probably the only play I would consider.

Before you take into account anything I say, remember I am favoring the Red Bulls here more than the bookies are right now. And I have been since the weekend began. My decisions may be skewed a little by that bias.

Good Luck All.

1 hour till race time, is anyone else getting excited yet?

Optional · 09-26-10, 06:12 AM

Originally posted by hedgejob

Button podium 2.830. He's got 2 complete dickheads in front on him, one of them will do something stupid.

Well Put hedgejob.

And I would jump on 2.83 if you can still get it!

*Edit: Oops, thought you said Hamilton. Not so sure on Button.

Originally posted by alias69

ferrari has fastest car, either alonso or hamilton will win. vettel too much off a risk. button smokey. webber chance but only podium. bol

If Vettel doesn't throw it into a fence, I think Lewis will have trouble, getting past him, or holding him off if he manages to at the first corner.

sportscash · 09-26-10, 08:19 AM

There goes Hamilton

Optional · 09-26-10, 10:48 AM

Boy did I get smashed this weekend.

Got to hand it to him, Alonso spanked me.