Like most niche sports, arena football is a game that holds great value because there isn’t much information out there for oddsmakers to go off of – especially early in the season and especially with a new league with new teams.
Sportsbooks’ handles on AFL games are very small and many will set low betting limits because they don’t want to get killed by wiseguys in the know.
Just to give you an idea of how much value can be had, in Week 1 of the AFL six spreads moved a total of 19 points by kickoff. This week, with a total of five lines up less than two days, the numbers have moved 8 points already.
I spoke with Mike Seba and Pete Korner earlier this week specifically about the AFL. These are the guys who run the outfits that make the lines in Vegas. Seba with the LVSC and Korner with the Sports Club.
Seba admitted to me that there can be value for AFL handicappers willing to do the grunt work. He even said there is going to be “some games that fall through the cracks.” Which translates to: right now we don’t have a clue where to set the lines for some of these matchups.
Seba also pointed out that like any other sport, as the weeks progress the lines will get tighter and tighter.
Korner told me that bettors and oddsmakers were on level playing fields at this point in the season, and that’s something you won’t hear from an Oddsmaker about too many sports. Korner pointed out that there isn’t much information for them to go off of so if you dig deep enough you should be able to find an edge.
Fortunately for Covers readers, I am going to do all the digging for you. I worked for the three-time ArenaBowl champion San Jose SaberCats for three years and know this league like the back of my hand.
I still talk to players, coaches, PR guys, equipment guys and cheerleaders. Okay, maybe not the last one (my wife wouldn’t like that). But I will utilize a lot of resources to make my picks this year.
In Week 1, I went 3-3 on the blog here so I am down .3 units – flat betting to win 1.0 units on each bet. Here are this week’s picks:
Chicago Rush -8 (this line has dropped from an opener of 10.5 and I would like this a lot better at 7 point so you might want to wait and see if it goes down any further by kickoff. Read the game preview here.)
Jacksonville Sharks -3 (QB key to this one. As long as Aaron Garcia is upright and healthy he is one of the best gunslingers this 50-yard game has ever seen.)
Spokane Shock +1 (Utah is going to be absolutely awful this year. New owners, new coach, new players. Won’t be backing them until they prove something.)
Bossier Battle Wings -2.5 (Raymond Phillyaw is a veteran AFL quarterback playing in his hometown in Louisiana. We haven’t seen Orlando play yet since they had a bye in Week 1 but they were held to 14 points in an exhibition game a few weeks ago.)
Dallas Vigilantes -6.5 (grabbed this at 4 when it opened but this is still a safe number to play at. I expect it will get to 7 and I wouldn’t play it higher than that. Dallas is has many players from its Desperados team back and I expect them to be the second-best team in the league this season.)
Good luck and feel free to ask me any questions about the teams or league.
Sportsbooks’ handles on AFL games are very small and many will set low betting limits because they don’t want to get killed by wiseguys in the know.
Just to give you an idea of how much value can be had, in Week 1 of the AFL six spreads moved a total of 19 points by kickoff. This week, with a total of five lines up less than two days, the numbers have moved 8 points already.
I spoke with Mike Seba and Pete Korner earlier this week specifically about the AFL. These are the guys who run the outfits that make the lines in Vegas. Seba with the LVSC and Korner with the Sports Club.
Seba admitted to me that there can be value for AFL handicappers willing to do the grunt work. He even said there is going to be “some games that fall through the cracks.” Which translates to: right now we don’t have a clue where to set the lines for some of these matchups.
Seba also pointed out that like any other sport, as the weeks progress the lines will get tighter and tighter.
Korner told me that bettors and oddsmakers were on level playing fields at this point in the season, and that’s something you won’t hear from an Oddsmaker about too many sports. Korner pointed out that there isn’t much information for them to go off of so if you dig deep enough you should be able to find an edge.
Fortunately for Covers readers, I am going to do all the digging for you. I worked for the three-time ArenaBowl champion San Jose SaberCats for three years and know this league like the back of my hand.
I still talk to players, coaches, PR guys, equipment guys and cheerleaders. Okay, maybe not the last one (my wife wouldn’t like that). But I will utilize a lot of resources to make my picks this year.
In Week 1, I went 3-3 on the blog here so I am down .3 units – flat betting to win 1.0 units on each bet. Here are this week’s picks:
Chicago Rush -8 (this line has dropped from an opener of 10.5 and I would like this a lot better at 7 point so you might want to wait and see if it goes down any further by kickoff. Read the game preview here.)
Jacksonville Sharks -3 (QB key to this one. As long as Aaron Garcia is upright and healthy he is one of the best gunslingers this 50-yard game has ever seen.)
Spokane Shock +1 (Utah is going to be absolutely awful this year. New owners, new coach, new players. Won’t be backing them until they prove something.)
Bossier Battle Wings -2.5 (Raymond Phillyaw is a veteran AFL quarterback playing in his hometown in Louisiana. We haven’t seen Orlando play yet since they had a bye in Week 1 but they were held to 14 points in an exhibition game a few weeks ago.)
Dallas Vigilantes -6.5 (grabbed this at 4 when it opened but this is still a safe number to play at. I expect it will get to 7 and I wouldn’t play it higher than that. Dallas is has many players from its Desperados team back and I expect them to be the second-best team in the league this season.)
Good luck and feel free to ask me any questions about the teams or league.