AFL rules and handicapping

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  • Justin7
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 07-31-06
    • 8577

    #1
    AFL rules and handicapping
    Rule differences:
    1. Field is smaller - only 50 yards long.
    2. Field Goal post is about half as wide - 9 feet.
    3. Only 8 players per side on the field.
    4. Rosters only allow 20 active players
    5. On defense, pass rush is restricted. Only 3 lineman and 1 (Mike) linebacker can rush until either the QB scrambles, or he pump-fakes. No stunts are allowed.
    6. The Jack linebacker cannot rush, and cannot drop into deep pass coverage. He has to stand near the line of scrimmage until "released" by the QB. If there are no short routs and he doesn't get a pass block, he is dead weight. In essence, it is 8 on 7.
    7. The defense has 3 DBs that can do any type of coverage. The offense has 3 WRs that are unrestricted.
    8. The offense is allowed to have 1 player in forward motion. This is usually a fast WR sprinting towards the line of scrimmage (making it tougher to cover him).
    9. The lock does not stop except for scores, except in the last 60 seconds of each half. In the last 60 seconds, the clock also stops on incomplete passes and out-of-bounds.
    10. There is no punting. FGs are usually returnable.
    11. There is a "rebound net" - kickoffs and FGs that don't go between the upright bounce into play, and are live. Either team can recover them.

    A typical game total is about 98. Home field advantage is worth about 1. Scoring is typically 22% in Q1 and Q3, 28% in Q2 and Q4. Most games see 1 or more onsides kicks (and I've seen a game with 8 onsides kicks).

    The "7" is worth about 15 cents - always buy onto and through it for 10 cents.

    The "3" is worth much less than in NFL/NCAAF (due to the increased difficulty of kicking FGs).
  • whatsgood5
    Restricted User
    • 10-13-09
    • 15359

    #2
    Thanks for the post Justin, very informative.
    Comment
    • VBOMBER
      SBR High Roller
      • 01-02-08
      • 228

      #3
      Do teams go for 2 a lot after a TD? It seems like they should as I imagine with all of the advantageous rules for offensive sets it would net more points over time than just kicking the extra point, especially since the fg posts are only half as wide, which must mean more misses on extra point kicks. Also, is it standard practice in this league to go for 2 to win instead of tie the game if you score at or near the end of regulation?

      Also, do teams drop kick for 2 after a TD, or drop kick for a 4 point (instead of a 3 point) fg often/ever?

      Was just reading the rules at cbssportsline and noticed that.
      Comment
      • Justin7
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 07-31-06
        • 8577

        #4
        2-point conversion don't typically happen until there are just a few possessions left for each team - maybe last half of 4th quarter. Teams occasionally go for the win near the very end.

        I think there has been only 1 4-pt FG in 20 years of Arena.
        Comment
        • nairaz
          Restricted User
          • 02-16-10
          • 3

          #5
          Thanks for the post man
          Comment
          • DeluxeLiner
            SBR MVP
            • 01-29-08
            • 4132

            #6
            Are there a significant number of bets from the public or are bets dominated by professional bettors?
            Comment
            • Justin7
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 07-31-06
              • 8577

              #7
              Originally posted by DeluxeLiner
              Are there a significant number of bets from the public or are bets dominated by professional bettors?
              Most of the movement is from pros.
              Comment
              • tbill11
                SBR MVP
                • 03-15-09
                • 1451

                #8
                What's your handicapping strategy Justin? Is this like the WNBA where you can follow a team's inconsistencies and Las Vegas opening steam to the bank?
                Comment
                • Justin7
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 07-31-06
                  • 8577

                  #9
                  Originally posted by tbill11
                  What's your handicapping strategy Justin? Is this like the WNBA where you can follow a team's inconsistencies and Las Vegas opening steam to the bank?
                  Create an information monopoly, manipulate the market occasionally to keep books honest, and fire away.
                  Comment
                  • IrishTim
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 07-23-09
                    • 983

                    #10
                    Don't know how I missed this forum. Thanks for throwing us without AFL databases a bone. Will be watching the other thread closely for your plays.
                    Comment
                    • bluefish
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 04-13-09
                      • 917

                      #11
                      when does this start?
                      Comment
                      • bluefish
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 04-13-09
                        • 917

                        #12
                        sometime soon I would guess
                        Comment
                        • bluefish
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 04-13-09
                          • 917

                          #13
                          is there money to be made here?
                          Comment
                          • Justin7
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 07-31-06
                            • 8577

                            #14
                            Originally posted by bluefish
                            is there money to be made here?
                            I've made more from Arena than any other sport.
                            Comment
                            • Terrapin Station
                              SBR MVP
                              • 01-05-10
                              • 2583

                              #15
                              Great information Justin, thanks for taking the time to post all that. Might try my hand at Arena this year.
                              Comment
                              • Jasonal_98
                                SBR MVP
                                • 06-16-09
                                • 1443

                                #16
                                I am definitely interested in tailing this thread and seeing how it does. Best of luck, Justin.

                                Comment
                                • durito
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 07-03-06
                                  • 13173

                                  #17
                                  What type of limits are
                                  there on derivative bets?
                                  Comment
                                  • Terrapin Station
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 01-05-10
                                    • 2583

                                    #18
                                    Will AFL games be offered in the SBR book?
                                    Comment
                                    • IrishTim
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 07-23-09
                                      • 983

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by durito
                                      What type of limits are
                                      there on derivative bets?
                                      I've seen the term derivative used a few times but never bothered to ask what it means? I know what derivatives mean in the financial services industry with options, futures, etc. but how does it apply to sports?
                                      Comment
                                      • Shortstop
                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                        • 01-02-09
                                        • 27281

                                        #20
                                        I'm looking forward to the Arena League returning this Spring!
                                        Comment
                                        • Shortstop
                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                          • 01-02-09
                                          • 27281

                                          #21
                                          I've only wagered on the Arena League probably 6 or 7 times in the past years simply for the action.

                                          Every time, I took the Over having absolutely no clue about the teams, players, injuries, home-field, etc.

                                          The Over hit easily each game, I mean it wasn't even close.

                                          Do the Overs hit much more frequently than the Unders, or was this simply luck?
                                          Comment
                                          • Justin7
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 07-31-06
                                            • 8577

                                            #22
                                            Just luck if you're betting blindly. It's about 50/50..
                                            Comment
                                            • RogueScholar
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 02-05-07
                                              • 5082

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by IrishTim
                                              I've seen the term derivative used a few times but never bothered to ask what it means? I know what derivatives mean in the financial services industry with options, futures, etc. but how does it apply to sports?
                                              To my knowledge, derivatives are 1st Half and 1/2/3/4 Quarter bets on a game, so called because their opening value is usually "derived" from the game spread and total. I don't know if Halftime lines fall into the same grouping.
                                              Originally posted by StraitShooter
                                              90% of the guys dont give a shit about your problems..and the other 10 are glad you have them..
                                              Comment
                                              • Godzilla Man
                                                Restricted User
                                                • 02-21-10
                                                • 7

                                                #24
                                                these are hard rules to keep up with
                                                Comment
                                                • ClimbSomeRocks
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 11-04-09
                                                  • 1081

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Godzilla Man
                                                  these are hard rules to keep up with

                                                  agreed. When does the season start?
                                                  Comment
                                                  • blanda
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 12-18-09
                                                    • 728

                                                    #26
                                                    Is it ever coming back?
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Justin7
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 07-31-06
                                                      • 8577

                                                      #27
                                                      April 2, 2010.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • dcb11
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 01-23-07
                                                        • 849

                                                        #28
                                                        I actually thought the league CLOSED up....LOL but found out it starts back up April 2,2010 and here is the quote from the AFL online news and the link is here if you need it http://www.arenafootballmedia.com/in...021514092NWB9F


                                                        Welcome to the official online newsroom for media materials and resources of the Arena Football League.

                                                        On Feb. 17, AFL officially announced that it is back in the game. Commissioner Jerry Kurz, team owners and coaches discussed during a national teleconference the rebirth of the arena football game. Details are provided in this news release or listen to the taped teleconference. B-roll from the 2008 AFL season is also available for download.

                                                        The Arena Football League’s season kicks off the weekend of April 2-4. The 15 teams will play a 16-game schedule with the Arena Bowl scheduled for the third weekend in August.

                                                        The online newsroom provides media resources for the AFL as well as resources and print-quality logos for individual teams.
                                                        Since it looks like the league is back I will have to back a team and the team is.......

                                                        Cleveland Gladiators

                                                        Here is a breakdown of the divisions

                                                        2010 AFL teams

                                                        American Conference

                                                        South
                                                        Alabama Vipers
                                                        Jacksonville Sharks
                                                        Orlando Predators
                                                        Tampa Bay Storm

                                                        Southwest
                                                        Bossier-Shreveport Battle Wings
                                                        Dallas Vigilantes
                                                        Oklahoma City Yard Dawgz
                                                        Tulsa Talons

                                                        National Conference

                                                        Midwest
                                                        Chicago Rush
                                                        Cleveland Gladiators
                                                        Iowa Barnstormers
                                                        Milwaukee Iron

                                                        West
                                                        Arizona Rattlers
                                                        Spokane Shock
                                                        Utah Blaze

                                                        Rem some of these teams were from AFL 2.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • NSN21
                                                          SBR Sharp
                                                          • 05-13-11
                                                          • 322

                                                          #29
                                                          Just stumbled onto this thread. I know very little about AFL, but Justin7's original post is very informative. I was especially curious about the decrease in value of the 3, and key numbers in general. Since the 3 is worth less, does anybody know or have a list of the various key numbers and their associated percentages pertaining to AFL games?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • ghuxe078emv
                                                            SBR Rookie
                                                            • 09-16-11
                                                            • 1

                                                            #30
                                                            you made some good points there. i did a search on the topic and found most people will agree with your idea.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • mikey470
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 08-22-08
                                                              • 124

                                                              #31
                                                              whats up fellas!!
                                                              Comment
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