GOLF: US Open

[EaglesPhan36]

Who ya got?

I went outside of taking Tiger because frankly even though he rules majors - he hasn't been great lately.

Mickelson +2000
Sabbatini +5000

1st round: Zack Johnson +105 over David Toms

And yeah, what the hell do I know about golf?

[bigboydan]

Even despite the multi-cam feed tiers I'm seeing on my satellite dish I probably won't be wagering on this event at all.

Who you got Crackerjack?

[hawk 5]

Mickelsons still has the bad wrist? Goosen to win.

[crackerjack]

Sorry, I didn't see this thread until just now.

For the tournament, I took Vijay Singh (-130) over Retief Goosen. I rarely bet players to win tournaments because it's a losing proposition in the long run (plus it's tough to bet against Tiger, but there's no value in betting him to win), but I think VJ has a good shot in this one...

For the first round, I have Baddeley over Villegas and KJ Choi over Mike Weir. I am pretty excited about both these matchups. (Good betting opportunities for single round matchups get better with each round as you are able to see the way players are playing, examine course stats, etc.)

Eaglesphan, good luck with your bet. I like Zach Johnson over Toms at plus money, but it should be a close one. Goosen could struggle to make the cut...

[EaglesPhan36]

Looks like I might end up being 2 for my last 2 in golf bets. Last time, I bet on someone against Adam Scott and he wound up leading that round. same today as Toms is leading the pack right now and Johnson is having a POS round.

[crackerjack]

Looks like I might end up being 2 for my last 2 in golf bets. Last time, I bet on someone against Adam Scott and he wound up leading that round. same today as Toms is leading the pack right now and Johnson is having a POS round.

Toms bogeyed four of five but Johnson just played a bad round. Don't worry, I loved KJ Choi over Weir, but he shot crap today. It's a four-day grind when betting tournaments. You generally don't hit all your bets, and there are plenty of chances to regain first-day losses.

[crackerjack]

Alright, I'm posting my top 2nd round matchup so y'all can jump on it with me:

Bubba Watson +104 over Boo Weekley

Like manna from heaven...

[EaglesPhan36]

This one seems too easy to have a chance to ca$h, but what the hell.

Olazabal +120 over Sergio Garcia

I don't think Serge shoots +9 again, but a nine stroke difference between two golfers and the one with the better first round gets the + odds ... I'll bite.

[crackerjack]

This one seems too easy to have a chance to ca$h, but what the hell.

Olazabal +120 over Sergio Garcia

I don't think Serge shoots +9 again, but a nine stroke difference between two golfers and the one with the better first round gets the + odds ... I'll bite.

Generally, you need to be careful when looking at two golfers and seeing that one did a lot better than the other in one round and assuming the same will happen the next round, because golf has a way of correcting itself. I have made a lot of money betting the other side of this type of wager...

That being said, I agree with this selection. I have a two unit play on Olazabal over Garcia and actually came to this thread to post it.

I got burned with KJ Choi (over Weir), but am thinking of taking the same wager again today. It is at better odds and I think this is an example of what I was talking about above. Choi lost to Weir by three strokes, so now Weir is favored in this matchup but I think things will correct. Choi started off poorly -- went to +6 almost right away, and then settled down and played par golf almost the rest of the way. I think he'll do much better today.

I also like Montgomerie +120 over Dimarco

Good luck

[pico]

R2 Leaderboard
Leading Players
Friday, 15 June 2007
COUNTRY R1 SCORE AFTER
1 N Dougherty Eng 68 -2
2 Cabrera Arg 69 -1
3 Baddeley Aus 72 level 8
3 B Watson US 70 level
3 Olazabal Spa 70 level
6 V Singh Fij 71 +1 9
6 Ogilvy Aus 71 +1
6 A Hansen Den 71 +1
6 Fasth Swe 71 +1
6 Browne US 71 +1
6 Hanson Swe 71 +1
6 Martin US 71 +1
6 Woods US 71 +1
6 Curtis US 71 +1
15 Clark SA 72 +2
15 Toms US 72 +2
15 Kanada US 72 +2
15 Weekley US 72 +2
19 Snedeker US 71 +3 11
19 Pernice Jnr. US 72 +3 10

[crackerjack]

VJ ruined it with a +7 (all on his last nine holes). I just hope Goosen can do +3 or worse. Not an unreasonable expectation with this course. With just two people under par yesterday, I can reasonably expect at least +1. With +2 I tie that wager...anything worse will be a push. I am on pins and needles!!

[abacus30]

Saturday's matchups

C-Jack, my matchups were not the same as yours today (playing on Betjam) other than Sergio/Olazabal. Wondering if the attached (Saturday) matchups are different than the ones you were already handicapping, would you mind giving your opinion on one or two of these? Anybody else got any thoughts on these? I won yesterday with Singh vs. Goosen and Els vs. Scott. I'm thinking about backing Bubba and Freddy Funk tomorrow. Thanks for sharing thoughts and good luck!
301 Bubba Watson +110
302 Angel Cabrera -140

303 Stephen Ames -105
304 Aaron Baddeley -125

305 Paul Casey -110
306 Justin Rose -120

307 Scott Verplank +105
308 David Toms -135

309 Chad Campbell +110
310 Jerry Kelly -140

311 Tiger Woods -200
312 Jim Furyk +160

313 Stuart Appleby +115
314 Geoff Ogilvy -145

315 Jose Maria Olazabal -125
316 Chris DiMarco -105

317 Fred Funk -120
318 John Rollins -110

319 Ernie Els -155
320 Steve Stricker +125

[crackerjack]

First few days, and often even the final few rounds, you can find all sorts of matchups at many different sites. I think Donbest puts out some generic ones that many sites use. Being a US citizen, I don't have as many options as someone from outside the US.

Of the matchups above, I like Watson at +110 as a value bet. I think his long game has helped him here and I am not sure Cabrera can maintain his quality start.

I have a huge lean on Dimarco over Olazabal. I followed him yesterday (had him over Garcia) and he was pretty erratic. The first round his short game helped him immensely, but I think Dimarco will have a better score. And at -105, you aren't laying too much juice.

Good luck.

[zootiehead]

Justin Rose 3rd round under 74.5 -115

[crackerjack]

Barring any major mess ups, rose should end up around 72 or 73. Did you end up taking Dimarco over Olazabal? SHould have been an easy cash for you.

I squeaked out a win on Toms over Verplank. Had a small bet Dougherty at +3.5 strokes and a bogey-double bogey-bogey finish wiped out that one. Have Watson +1.5 over Cabrera. Looked great until a triple bogey really hurt him. Right now they are even through 15. I am sweating, as it's a sizable bet.

[zootiehead]

Rose ended up with 73 so I feel pretty lucky. It wasn't looking so good when he was +4 through 12. I didn't play any matchups today but wish I had taken that one.

[abacus30]

I won with Bubba over Cabrera and also took Olazabal over Dimarco thanks to you Cracker... appreciate the help! Got any thoughts yet for final round? Good luck guys.

[crackerjack]

Hopefully you had Dimarco, which is what I suggested. I was yelling at Watson when he posted that triple bogey, but he held on and Cabrera putted like rap. I will post my picks in a few ...

[abacus30]

Yes, I just wrote it wrong... I took Dimarco over Jose. Thanks!

[crackerjack]

Have a few I like today...

Toms over Fasth
Weir over Mahan
Cabrera over Appleby

Good luck