[2nd round match]
Huh (2.3) v Piercy - LOST
Landry (1.741) v Pan - LOST
Honda running total: -2.13
Huh (2.3) v Piercy - LOST
Landry (1.741) v Pan - LOST
Honda running total: -2.13
-
Comment -
[3rd round match]
Frittelli (2.05) v Moore
Woods (1.952) v DufnerComment -
[3rd round match]
Bradley (1.8) v MartinComment -
[3rd round match]
Frittelli (2.05) v Moore - WON
Woods (1.952) v Dufner - WON
Honda running total: -0.128Comment -
[3rd round match]
Bradley (1.8) v Martin - LOST
Honda running total: -1.128Comment -
[To win]
Simpson (5.9), risk 0.5 units to win 2.45 units
Fleetwood (6.0), risk 0.5 units to win 2.5 unitsComment -
[To win]
Simpson (5.9), risk 0.5 units to win 2.45 units - LOST
Fleetwood (6.0), risk 0.5 units to win 2.5 units - LOST
[72 hole match]
J. Thomas (2.0) v McIlroy - WIN
Honda total: -1.128
2018 running results/total
WMPO: -0.07 units
AT&T: +0.743
Genesis: +1.3463
Honda: -1.128
Running total: +0.8913 units
Average result per tourney: +0.2228 unitsComment -
Who do you like this week to win. My gut says Rahm wins.Comment -
unfortunately, i wasn't able to see any of the 2017 WGC-Mexico, so i'm not too familiar with the course. anybody with insights would be appreciated. i did find this link (and fairways appear to be heavily treelined):
also of note, is that the clubhouse is 2,400 meters above sea level. maybe hold off on Mickelson and older players??
4 of the top 10 aren't in the field... of those six top 10 players playing i'd have to go w/ JT. in the #11 - #29 range Ross Fisher. in the #30 - #50 range Chez Reavie.Comment -
Found this solid review for WGC-Mexico:
The forever goal of every host track is consistency. That begets fairness, which is what every competitor wants. You're not going to find another course that splashed as well as Club de Golf Chapultepec did in 2017.
The par 35-36=71 averaged 0.049 strokes over par as an unknown test. The field averaged 11.3 greens in regulation per golfer per round and connected for par breakers on 30 percent of those opportunities. Those splits aren't outrageous in either direction. Additionally, the fairways-hit average of 8.59 (of 14) was dead center among all courses last season.
None of the official stats are adjusted for altitude, so it's mildly surprising that Chapultepec ranked "just" sixth-longest of 38 courses measured in distance of all drives at 294.1 yards. En route to victory, Johnson slotted a mere 17th in the stat, adding more evidence that he's no one-trick pony. In fact, he was a pedestrian 27th in strokes gained: off-the-tee.
DJ did his work on approach and on the Poa-bentgrass putting surfaces maxing at 11.5 feet on the Stimpmeter. He led the field in strokes gained: approach-the-green, strokes gained: tee-to-green and proximity to the hole. He also set the pace in par-5 scoring at 4.17 with 10 birdies and two pars. Of the 10 golfers inside the top 10 on the final leaderboard, six ranked inside the top 10 in par-5 scoring. Five cracked the top 10 each in strokes gained: tee-to-green and strokes gained: putting.
Chapultepec can stretch to 7,345 yards. It's up 15 due to a new tee box on the par-4 14th hole, which now measures 497 yards. If there's a specific challenge on the course, it's quantified in the undulations in the previously unfamiliar greens. Chapultepec ranked third-stingiest of all courses last season in conversion percentage inside 10 feet, but that didn't stop Johnson, who placed T74 in the stat for the week.
Five qualifiers did not commit this year. For various reasons, Jason Day, Brooks Koepka, Hideki Matsuyama, Rory McIlroy and Henrik Stenson are sitting it out. For those competing, Mother Nature should cooperate throughout. Passing clouds might yield a sprinkle or two, but nothing that should suspend play. Daytime highs flirting with 80 degrees will be accompanied by gentle breezes and relatively dry air.
Comment -
* all bets 1 unit unless otherwise noted *
WGC-Mexico
[Top Englishman]
Fisher (7.5, bet365), bet 0.5 units to win 3.25
[72 hole match]
Fisher (1.952) v Fitzpatrick
Campillo (2.15) v Uihlein
Reavie -1/2 (1.813) v Wiesberger
Casey (1.833) v Garcia
Cantlay -1 1/2 (1.8) v Bubba
Mickelson (2.25) v Rose
Frittelli (2.20) v Oosthuizen
Dufner (1.769) v Hadwin
Spieth (1.952) v FowlerComment -
[Top Englishman]
Fisher (7.5, bet365), bet 0.5 units to win 3.25 - LOST
[72 hole match]
Fisher (1.952) v Fitzpatrick - LOST
Campillo (2.15) v Uihlein - WON
Reavie -1/2 (1.813) v Wiesberger - LOST
Casey (1.833) v Garcia - LOST
Cantlay -1 1/2 (1.8) v Bubba - LOST
Mickelson (2.25) v Rose - WON
Frittelli (2.20) v Oosthuizen - LOST
Dufner (1.769) v Hadwin - LOST
Spieth (1.952) v Fowler - WON
2018 running results/total
WMPO: -0.07 units
AT&T: +0.743
Genesis: +1.3463
Honda: -1.128
Mexico: -3.148
Running total: -2.2567 units
Average result per tourney: -0.4513 unitsComment -
Couple questions:
-Do you make your own numbers? Or do you bet these more through intuition i.e. "so and so is over-valued b/c of a fluky high finish last week", or "player y struggles at tight courses that have a lot of length", etc.
-Do you track your plays against the closing line at all?
Just curious! I actually ended up with a similar portfolio of plays to you last week...it didn't go too well for me either
Comment -
Intuition and not numbers. WGC-Mexico was not good to me. Looking to rebound with the Valspar Championship.Couple questions:
-Do you make your own numbers? Or do you bet these more through intuition i.e. "so and so is over-valued b/c of a fluky high finish last week", or "player y struggles at tight courses that have a lot of length", etc.
-Do you track your plays against the closing line at all?
Just curious! I actually ended up with a similar portfolio of plays to you last week...it didn't go too well for me eitherComment -
* all bets 1 unit unless otherwise noted *
Valspar Championship
[72 hole match]
Rodgers 2.45 v Burns
Rose 1.909 v Casey
Na 1.769 v FitzpatrickComment -
Na 1.769 v Fitzpatrick - NO BET
Tough break here with Fitzpatrick laying an egg and missing the cut. Knock on wood, but nice start to Rodgers's 2nd round. Casey on the move though.Comment -
Going to take a break and re-evaluate. Probably be back with the Masters.
Rodgers 2.45 v Burns - LOST
Rose 1.909 v Casey - LOST
2018 running results/total
WMPO: -0.07 units
AT&T: +0.743
Genesis: +1.3463
Honda: -1.128
Mexico: -3.148
Valspar: -2.0
Running total: -4.2567 units
Average result per tourney: -0.7095 unitsComment -
Back in the saddle.
* all bets are 1 unit
RBC Heritage (HHI)
[72 hole match]
McGirt (2.05) vs Furyk
Smith (1.909) vs Hatton
Martin (1.741) vs LahiriComment -
Valero Texas Open
[72 hole match]
Perez (1.909) vs Snedeker
Kokrak (1.87) vs Frittelli
Walker (2.1) vs PalmerComment -
WMPO: -0.07 units
AT&T: +0.743
Genesis: +1.3463
Honda: -1.128
Mexico: -3.148
Valspar: -2.0
HHI: +1.65
Valero: -0.9
Running total: -3.5067 units
Average result per tourney: -0.438unitsComment -
Wells Fargo
[72 hole match]
Burns (1.833) vs Lowry
Glover (1.909) vs Bradley
Grillo (2.1) vs HarmanComment -
The Players
[72 hole match]
Fleetwood 1.87 (v) Molinari
Horschel 2.45 (v) Kuchar
Stenson 1.909 (v) Rahm
Cantlay 1.87 (v) DeChambeauComment -
WMPO: -0.07 units
AT&T: +0.743
Genesis: +1.3463
Honda: -1.128
Mexico: -3.148
Valspar: -2.0
HHI: +1.65
Valero: -0.9
Wells Fargo: -0.9
Players: +1.649
Running total: -2.7577 units
Average result per tourney: -0.276 unitsComment -
Byron Nelson
[72 hole match]
Sabbatini (1.8) v Niemann
Conners (1.909) v Hearn
Walker (2.15) v Matsuyama
Summerhays (2.05) v Baddeley
McDowell (1.8) v KnoxComment -
FWI
[72 hole match]
Dufner (1.833) vs WiseComment -
WMPO: -0.07 units
AT&T: +0.743
Genesis: +1.3463
Honda: -1.128
Mexico: -3.148
Valspar: -2.0
HHI: +1.65
Valero: -0.9
Wells Fargo: -0.9
Players: +1.649
Byron Nelson: +0.859
Colonial: -1.0
Running total: -2.8987 units
Average result per tourney (12 total): -0.2416 units
Comment
