Monte Carlo Golf

[Waterstpub87]

Did some research into golf, and found four statistics that are highly predictive of results, while being relatively consistent over time. Built a simulation engine in excel to simulate 10,000 tournaments. Been beating the close by miles over the past two weekends.

Posting my picks here. Can't really do much of a write up because there isn't any analysis but the simulated results.

[Waterstpub87]

Waste Management Pheonix Open:

All risking 1 unit

M. Leishman +124 over Justin Thomas
P. Reed +111 over K. Chappell
B. Cauley -118 over R. Knox
C. HOFFMAN -103 over R. Palmer

[Waterstpub87]

Adding D. Berger 103 over A. Noren

[Waterstpub87]

YTD (3-2, +1.11)

Pebble Beach Pro-am

D. Johnson -142 over R.Mcilory
G.Woodland +156 over J. Spieth
K. Kisner +120 over B.Grace
V. Taylor -120 over P. Dunne
G. Mcdowell -101 over B. Harkins

[Winning oasis]

Looks good. I like Day over McIlroy -145 also. I think DJ and Day have good performances. GL

[Waterstpub87]

Adding

Tournament Matchup
D. Johnson -155 over J. Day
S. Lowry 100 over J. Kokrak

First Round
W. McGirt 184 over J.Day

[Waterstpub87]

All bets always risk one unit

[canepole]

Good looking card and GL Perez +145 vs Casey Tournament Matchup jumping out at me

[Waterstpub87]

Adding

1st Round
M. Mcnealy 117 over P. Dunne
P. Mickelson 125 over R. Mcilroy

[Waterstpub87]

2nd Round
J. Kelly +158 over Kevin Streelman
W. McGirt +184 over J.Day
M. Mcnealy +143 over P. Dunne
C. Davis +183 over B.Hossler

[Waterstpub87]

Round 3
S. Cink 115 over A. Cook
C. Davis 185 over B. Hossler
J. Kelly 152 over K. Streelman
W. Mcgirt 202 over j.day

[Waterstpub87]

Round 4
KJ Choi 155 over R. Knox
S.Stricker 150 over J. Day

[Waterstpub87]

YTD 10 - 14 -1.38
Genesis Open
O. Schniederjans -109 over A. Noren
D. Berger -131 over T. Pieters
R. Cabrera-Bello -126 over H. Li

[Waterstpub87]

1st Round
H. English 100 over T.PIETERS
X. Schauffele +105 over A. Noren
K. Stanley -115 over. T.POTTER JR

[Waterstpub87]

2nd Round
O. Schniederjans -120 over B. Hossler
R. Armour +155 over T. Finau
X. SCHAUFFELE 100 over A. Noren
H. English -110 over T. Pieters

[Waterstpub87]

Round 4

A. Baddeley 174 over. J. Thomas
B. DeChambeau -115 over P. Uihlein

[Waterstpub87]

YTD 13-20 (-4.68)

Honda Classic
G. McDowell +123 over C. Hadley
P. Kizzire -112 over T. Pieters
B. Harman +130 over A. Noren

[Waterstpub87]

Round 1
K. Kisner 161 over R. Fowler
A. Scott 152 over R. Mcilory

[Waterstpub87]

YTD 14-24 (-7.45)

WGC Mexico
J. Dufner -103 over A. Hadwin
A. Noren 102 over P. Mickelson
J. Rahm 112 over J. Thomas
T. Fleetwood 128 over J. Speith
A. Noren 134 over J. Rose

[SBR Drew]

Any thoughts on who wins the WGC?

[Waterstpub87]

Any thoughts on who wins the WGC?

Unfortunately no. There were many golfers who are mostly European, so i don't have data from there. I use the strokes gained statistic, which is PGA tour proprietary. I don't normally bother to calculate the tournament winner, because it takes time, and the vig is too high on the futures bets.

[SBR Drew]

Understood...well keep your matchups coming..always interesting to see who you like.

[Waterstpub87]

Row Labels	Count of Winner
	1781
Abraham Ancer	27
Adam Hadwin	108
Alex Noren	246
Branden Grace	166
Brendan Steele	185
Brian Harman	188
Bubba Watson	110
Charl Schwartzel	57
Charley Hoffman	137
Chez Reavie	194
Daniel Berger	194
Dustin Johnson	601
Francesco Molinari	133
Gary Woodland	239
Hao Tong LI	58
Jason Dufner	205
Jhonattan Vegas	66
Jon Rahm	439
Jordan Spieth	321
Justin Rose	229
Justin Thomas	272
Kevin Chappell	159
Kevin Kisner	195
Kyle Stanley	109
Louis Oosthuizen	194
Marc Leishman	175
Matt Kuchar	213
Pat Perez	172
Patrick Cantlay	303
Patrick Reed	150
Patton Kizzire	49
Paul Casey	258
Peter Uihlein	57
Phil Mickelson	281
Rafa Cabrera Bello	118
Rickie Fowler	349
Russell Henley	167
Sergio Garcia	167
Thomas PIETERS	91
Tommy Fleetwood	175
Tony Finau	233
Webb Simpson	206
Xander Schauffele	223
(blank)
Grand Total	10000

Of the golfers I have data for, here is the breakdown. The blank number on top represents when 2 or more golfers have same score.

[Waterstpub87]

Adding

R. Fowler -102 over T. Fleetwood

[Waterstpub87]

1st Round
D. Berger +100 over T. Pieters

[Waterstpub87]

2nd Round
D. Berger +100 over T. Pieters

[Waterstpub87]

YTD 15-28 ( -10.2)
Valspar Open

L. List 128 over L. Oosthuizen
Byeong-Hun An 139 over G. Woodland
O. Schniederjans 118 over B. Haas

[Waterstpub87]

Round 1
P. Harrington 170 over C. Smith
A. Scott 130 over S. Garcia
G. McDowell 102 Over J. Walker

[Waterstpub87]

YTD 15-30 (-12.2)

Arnold Palmer Invitational

J. Rose 107 over T. Woods
H. Stenson -113 over B. Watson
J. Day 107 over T. Woods
H.Matsuyama -103 over A. Noren
C. Hoffman -103 over P.Kizzire

[Waterstpub87]

YTD 18-32 (-11.27)

Houston Open
B. Cauley 115 over J. Kokrak
B Harkins 159 over. L.Glover
W. Mcgirt 100 over R. Sabbatini
B. Cauley 110 over JB Holmes
I. Poulter -116 over M. Kaymer

[Waterstpub87]

YTD 21-34 (-10.15)

Masters
P. Kizzire -126 over M. Kaymer
J. Dufner -114 over R. Fisher
K. Kisner 105 over C. Schwartzel
P. Casey 107 over B. Watson
Z. Johnson 110 over C. Smith
D. Berger -125 over C. Schwartzel
J. Rahm 115 over B. Watson
D. Johnson -105 over R. Mcilroy
D. Johnson -105 over J. Speith

[Waterstpub87]

RBC Heritage

Dustin Johnson -157 (Dustin Johnson vrs Matt Kuchar)

Tyrrell Hatton -114 (Cameron Smith vrs Tyrrell Hatton)

Tyrrell Hatton +122 (Marc Leishman vrs Tyrrell Hatton)

Xander Schauffele +111 (Xander Schauffele vrs Kevin Na)

Patton Kizzire -102 (Patton Kizzire vrs Charl Schwartzel)

Graeme McDowell +114 (Austin Cook vrs Graeme McDowell)

[Waterstpub87]

YTD 28-42 (-11.54)

Texas Open
K. Na -125 over J. Suri
O. Schniederjans -115 over S. Kim
J. Walker 110 over R. Palmer
S. Garcia -108 over M.Kuchar
S. Garcia -104 over C. Hoffman

[Waterstpub87]

YTD 30-45 (-12.57)

Wells Fargo Championship
J. Thomas -105 over R. Mcilroy
P. Mickelson -120 over T. Woods
P. Mickelson 100 over P. Casey
W. Simpson 110 over T. Finau
T. Fleetwood -130 over L. Oosthuizen
T. Hatton -120 over A. Hadwin

[Waterstpub87]

YTD 31-48 (-14.75)

Players Championship

T. Fleetwood 105 over. F. Molinari
B. Grace 115 over L. Oosthuizen
T. Hatton -110 over D. Berger
J. Day -110 over. J.Speith
D. Johnson 100 over R. Mcilroy
D. Johnson -130 over R. Fowler
B. Harman -125 over S.Kim