VERY Early US Open Golf Thoughts: Why Tiger Is Bad value.
Before I look for a winner, I like to look at the players I can rule out so as to make the list of possible winners shorter. Obviously this is an 'opinion' thing but it works ok for me.
My books are showing Tiger Woods 2-1 Fav and I'll rule him out on price alone. I'm not saying he can't win and I actually think he'll be there or thereabouts, but at 2-1 his price is ridiculous and is arrived at by the weight of public money he'll attract, rather than as an indication of his true chance of winning.
For what it's worth, just my opinion, Tiger Woods would have to be at least 4-1 before I backed him and I'll be watching in-play markets very closely if he gets off to a miserable start. On the subject of books that offer in-play odds, this is another reason to swerve Woods at prohibitive odds. Unless he gets off to a flyer he can only lengthen in odds, so rather than take a ridiculous 2-1 I'd rather see how he starts and maybe grab 4-1 when he's 5 or 6 back from a quick starter after 5 or 6 holes. Just my opinion.
Another reason Woods is a ridiculous price is because the last time the US Open was at Bethpage, Tiger won by three shots with Mickelson second. Mickelson is available at 16-1 and whilst I wouldn't back him either, I feel there is more value in Phil at 16's than there is in Tiger at 2-1. Don't be fooled by that though, Phil won't win either.
I'm happy to rule out Woods, Mickelson, Furyk, Stricker, Villegas, Harrington and Garcia, for various reasons which I won't bore you with here. I'm leaning towards two players, one at 50-1 and a 100-1 shot. Keep you posted, all views welcome.
My books are showing Tiger Woods 2-1 Fav and I'll rule him out on price alone. I'm not saying he can't win and I actually think he'll be there or thereabouts, but at 2-1 his price is ridiculous and is arrived at by the weight of public money he'll attract, rather than as an indication of his true chance of winning.
For what it's worth, just my opinion, Tiger Woods would have to be at least 4-1 before I backed him and I'll be watching in-play markets very closely if he gets off to a miserable start. On the subject of books that offer in-play odds, this is another reason to swerve Woods at prohibitive odds. Unless he gets off to a flyer he can only lengthen in odds, so rather than take a ridiculous 2-1 I'd rather see how he starts and maybe grab 4-1 when he's 5 or 6 back from a quick starter after 5 or 6 holes. Just my opinion.
Another reason Woods is a ridiculous price is because the last time the US Open was at Bethpage, Tiger won by three shots with Mickelson second. Mickelson is available at 16-1 and whilst I wouldn't back him either, I feel there is more value in Phil at 16's than there is in Tiger at 2-1. Don't be fooled by that though, Phil won't win either.
I'm happy to rule out Woods, Mickelson, Furyk, Stricker, Villegas, Harrington and Garcia, for various reasons which I won't bore you with here. I'm leaning towards two players, one at 50-1 and a 100-1 shot. Keep you posted, all views welcome.