RIO 2016
After spending so many hours crunching numbers that I have lost count, I have formulated a basic model for predicting individual country's success in the Rio games. My model uses base data from the Associated Press, Sports Illustrated, Wall St journal, Goldman Sachs, BBC, GraceNote & a couple of other sites.
I have focused on two category's. Gold medals won & total medals won. I have only focused on the top 50-60% of the worlds nations (sporting wise) as I simply don't have the time or desire to analyse every nation.
Odds are in decimal format ($1.90 = -110)
Wagers are to win not risk (for example a 1 unit play at $1.50/-200 means risking 2 units to win 1)
Sportsbooks are all Australian other than Pinnacle (I'm sure a lot of these o/u props will be available on 5Dimes for the US boys)
Gold Medals won
1* NZ Over 7.5 Golds ($1.87 Sportsbet)
1.5* Australia Over 13.5 Golds ($1.75 Will Hill)
2* USA Over 41.5 Golds ($1.80 Luxbet)
1* Japan Over 11.5 Golds ($1.88 Crownbet)
4* Italy Under 7.5 Golds ($1.83 Sportsbet)
1* South Korea Under 10.5 Golds ($1.84 Pinnacle)
2.5* Brazil Under 8.5 Golds ($1.88 Crownbet)
1* Canada Under 5.5 Golds ($1.40 Pinnacle)
1* Canada Under 4.5 Golds ($1.83 Sportsbet)
1* Bulgaria Under 0.5 Golds ($2.25 Sportsbet)
Total medals won
5* Romania Over 0.5 total medals ($1.72 Sportsbet)
2* Japan Over 33.5 total medals ($1.83 Sportsbet)
1* Netherlands Over 22.5 total medals ($1.83 Ladbrokes)
1* Germany Over 47.5 total medals ($1.83 Ladbrokes)
1* NZ Over 20.5 total medals ($1.72 Ladbrokes)
1* France Under 42.5 total medals ($1.83 Sportsbet)
1* Canada Under 18.5 total medals ($1.83 Sportsbet)
1* Brazil Under 25.5 total medals ($1.83 Ladbrokes)
Extra Bets
1* Great Britain - Most Golds without USA & China ($1.90 Sportsbet)
2* Australia 11-15 Golds ($2.20 Sportsbet)
1* Australia 16-20 Golds ($4.00 Sportsbet)
After spending so many hours crunching numbers that I have lost count, I have formulated a basic model for predicting individual country's success in the Rio games. My model uses base data from the Associated Press, Sports Illustrated, Wall St journal, Goldman Sachs, BBC, GraceNote & a couple of other sites.
I have focused on two category's. Gold medals won & total medals won. I have only focused on the top 50-60% of the worlds nations (sporting wise) as I simply don't have the time or desire to analyse every nation.
Odds are in decimal format ($1.90 = -110)
Wagers are to win not risk (for example a 1 unit play at $1.50/-200 means risking 2 units to win 1)
Sportsbooks are all Australian other than Pinnacle (I'm sure a lot of these o/u props will be available on 5Dimes for the US boys)
Gold Medals won
1* NZ Over 7.5 Golds ($1.87 Sportsbet)
1.5* Australia Over 13.5 Golds ($1.75 Will Hill)
2* USA Over 41.5 Golds ($1.80 Luxbet)
1* Japan Over 11.5 Golds ($1.88 Crownbet)
4* Italy Under 7.5 Golds ($1.83 Sportsbet)
1* South Korea Under 10.5 Golds ($1.84 Pinnacle)
2.5* Brazil Under 8.5 Golds ($1.88 Crownbet)
1* Canada Under 5.5 Golds ($1.40 Pinnacle)
1* Canada Under 4.5 Golds ($1.83 Sportsbet)
1* Bulgaria Under 0.5 Golds ($2.25 Sportsbet)
Total medals won
5* Romania Over 0.5 total medals ($1.72 Sportsbet)
2* Japan Over 33.5 total medals ($1.83 Sportsbet)
1* Netherlands Over 22.5 total medals ($1.83 Ladbrokes)
1* Germany Over 47.5 total medals ($1.83 Ladbrokes)
1* NZ Over 20.5 total medals ($1.72 Ladbrokes)
1* France Under 42.5 total medals ($1.83 Sportsbet)
1* Canada Under 18.5 total medals ($1.83 Sportsbet)
1* Brazil Under 25.5 total medals ($1.83 Ladbrokes)
Extra Bets
1* Great Britain - Most Golds without USA & China ($1.90 Sportsbet)
2* Australia 11-15 Golds ($2.20 Sportsbet)
1* Australia 16-20 Golds ($4.00 Sportsbet)