lk35's 2015 Sports (NRL, AFL, SOCCER)

[lordkai35]

Sorry about late posts but teamlists come out 30mins before kickoff and i still gotta do research, sometimes i get home 15 mins before kickoff. Try to check <5 mins before kickoff. Anyway i think this week so far is 3-2 if lucky or 2-3 in unlucky depending on updates. So nothing really happened haha. Hoping tonight goes well

[lelicek]

NRL RD 4 Cowboys vs Storm

1x Gavin Cooper UNDER 33.5 TACKLES

1X jason Taumalolo OVER 49.5 SUPERCOACH POINTS

1X Kevin Proctor Under 80.5 METRES

thanks, but where can i bet it now, when mathc is started ?

[lordkai35]

y]Yeah these markets are not live, have to get in before game starts. Only bookie i know is sportsbet.

[lelicek]

NRL RD 4 Cowboys vs Storm

1x Gavin Cooper UNDER 33.5 TACKLES

1X jason Taumalolo OVER 49.5 SUPERCOACH POINTS

1X Kevin Proctor Under 80.5 METRES

again full of win....cooper 22 tackles, taumalolo 63 points, proctor 51 m...3-0, +2,55 u
when i have correct counted...R4...7-1, +4,8 u
what a pity for us, your possible followers...it suffice only some minutes posting your picks before kick off...
your record should be now 20-5-1, +11,85 u...it´s amazing !
please don´t be secret and share your picks with us ! we want to make profit too ! let´s beat the bookies !
thanks many times !

[lordkai35]

Hey buddy Iam not being secretive. I post my plays as Iam entering the bet myself. I know timing is poor so Iam trying to go as soon as possible. Just maybe hang on the forum a couple of minutes before kick off.

[lelicek]

Hey buddy Iam not being secretive. I post my plays as Iam entering the bet myself. I know timing is poor so Iam trying to go as soon as possible. Just maybe hang on the forum a couple of minutes before kick off.

thanks for all your work !
good luck !

[lordkai35]

NRL RD 4 TIGERS VS DOGS

1x Josh jackson UNDER 33.5 tackles WINNER

1x Martin Taupau OVER 33.5 tackles LOSE

NRL RD 4 Dragons vs Manly

1x Joel Thompson UNDER 54.5 Supercoach points 1.85 sportsbet WINNER

NRL RD 4 Warriors vs Broncos

1x Ryan Hoffman UNDER 27.5 tackles 1.70 sportsbet WINNER

1x Corey Parker UNDER 83.5 SUPERCOACH points 1.85 sportsbet LOSE

NRL RD 4 Cowboys vs Storm

1x Gavin Cooper UNDER 33.5 TACKLES WINNER

1X jason Taumalolo OVER 49.5 SUPERCOACH POINTS WINNER

1X Kevin Proctor Under 80.5 METRES WINNER

6-2 average weekend until monday night

+3.1 units

[lordkai35]

Season Overall

19-6-1
+10.15 units.

AFL season starting this week, pretty excited. After the first 4 rounds of NRL i now have a better idea of how teams will be going this year and what performances we can expect from each team. Hence, ill be starting head-to-head win, line, margins plays on top of statistic bets. Ill also try to make a quick write up every week about each game and my views/early leans so keep an eye out for those.

Cheers!

[lelicek]

NRL RD 4 TIGERS VS DOGS

1x Josh jackson UNDER 33.5 tackles WINNER

1x Martin Taupau OVER 33.5 tackles LOSE

NRL RD 4 Dragons vs Manly

1x Joel Thompson UNDER 54.5 Supercoach points 1.85 sportsbet WINNER

NRL RD 4 Warriors vs Broncos

1x Ryan Hoffman UNDER 27.5 tackles 1.70 sportsbet WINNER

1x Corey Parker UNDER 83.5 SUPERCOACH points 1.85 sportsbet LOSE

NRL RD 4 Cowboys vs Storm

1x Gavin Cooper UNDER 33.5 TACKLES WINNER

1X jason Taumalolo OVER 49.5 SUPERCOACH POINTS WINNER

1X Kevin Proctor Under 80.5 METRES WINNER

6-2 average weekend until monday night

+3.1 units

thanks for update...
but on warriors vs.broncos corey parker has 73 fantasy points, which is less than 83,5 -> should be win ?
or i see other statistic ?

thank you and please continue ! really nice record !

[micase]

thanks for update...
but on warriors vs.broncos corey parker has 73 fantasy points, which is less than 83,5 -> should be win ?
or i see other statistic ?

thank you and please continue ! really nice record !

Supercoach and Fantasy are two separate competitions.

Nice results Lordkai, I had been doing well with these bets the first few rounds but can't bet at Sportsbet sadly. I had noticed Centrebet were doing player props but did not do them at all last round. Brings down the sites I know of to Sportsbet and Luxbet. One exceptional bet I had earlier on was a middle of Simon Mannering having 31-47 tackles.

[lordkai35]

NRL Round 5 Preview (Early leans)

Bulldogs vs Souths - I can't see souths losing two games in a row. Bulldogs welcome back josh reynolds which will add creativity to attack that has been lacking the last couple of games. Bulldogs have a better calibre pack whilst Souths are going to rely on their 1,6,7,9. I thinks souths will come out firing and dogs will start slow but will be more competitive as the game progresses. However, i can't see another Souths collapse.

Souths 1-12

Titans vs Broncos - Broncos on form but Titans can pull the upset here especially at home. ill be staying away from this game.

Eagles vs Raiders - Eagles have been struggling with key injuries in their forward pack which is now diminished to rookies and impact props They don't have any consistant or dominant forwards that can lead the pack. Having said that, i can't see Manly collapsing two games in a row. Last week they played an in form Dragons team on monday night away game and although they did not show much capabilities you can't look past the halves. Playing "home" game i can't see them losing to a raiders outfit that got demolished on the home. Raiders also dropped their starting half and with the second tier players on playing, i can't see the eagles losing this one.

Manly 13+ or the ATS

Knights vs Dragons -Knights have been brilliant this season having a great balance of talent and workrate across the entire team. The dragons are also an inform team and look very solid to start the year. Usually these two sides look upon their defence to win games so i expect this to be a low scoring affair. However, knights at home for day game with the return of tariq sims, i feel they will win this won and comfortably.

Knights ATS

Roosters vs Sharks - Form team vs Can't win at home agaisnt titans. Roosters 13+ probably 19+

Eels vs Tigers - Two inform teams. Eels really showed their potential with the win against Souths, playing a very strategic game. Even though tigers lost, they did do in golden time having dominated about 70 mins of the game. Their lack of calibre and key injuries to Woods couldn't seal the win last week. We see all the Tiger's first team players returning this week. This match really feels like a 50-50 to me. I dont see home ground advantage affecting the outcome much as both teams are unpredictable. This will be a high scoring affair. Id toss a coin to decide who wins.

Storm vs Warriors - the warriors are poor away from home and just have too much inconsistency and structure. The loss of Tomkins evidently disrupted their flow in attack and the replacements are just not of the same calibre. On record Storm have had a poor start to the season but they were winning in all games and some losses were due to poor reffing and JT. I can't see an upset here, storm comfortably at home.

Storm ATS

Panthers vs Cowboys -At home Panthers are VERY good, Cowboys hate travelling outside Queensland. Cowboys have regained some poor thanks to their miracle win but i don't feel they have the mentality and desire to win against an always consistent/determined Panthers team. Panthers in a close one.

Panthers 1-12.

[lelicek]

NRL Round 5 Preview (Early leans)

Bulldogs vs Souths - I can't see souths losing two games in a row. Bulldogs welcome back josh reynolds which will add creativity to attack that has been lacking the last couple of games. Bulldogs have a better calibre pack whilst Souths are going to rely on their 1,6,7,9. I thinks souths will come out firing and dogs will start slow but will be more competitive as the game progresses. However, i can't see another Souths collapse.

Souths 1-12

Titans vs Broncos - Broncos on form but Titans can pull the upset here especially at home. ill be staying away from this game.

Eagles vs Raiders - Eagles have been struggling with key injuries in their forward pack which is now diminished to rookies and impact props They don't have any consistant or dominant forwards that can lead the pack. Having said that, i can't see Manly collapsing two games in a row. Last week they played an in form Dragons team on monday night away game and although they did not show much capabilities you can't look past the halves. Playing "home" game i can't see them losing to a raiders outfit that got demolished on the home. Raiders also dropped their starting half and with the second tier players on playing, i can't see the eagles losing this one.

Manly 13+ or the ATS

Knights vs Dragons -Knights have been brilliant this season having a great balance of talent and workrate across the entire team. The dragons are also an inform team and look very solid to start the year. Usually these two sides look upon their defence to win games so i expect this to be a low scoring affair. However, knights at home for day game with the return of tariq sims, i feel they will win this won and comfortably.

Knights ATS

Roosters vs Sharks - Form team vs Can't win at home agaisnt titans. Roosters 13+ probably 19+

Eels vs Tigers - Two inform teams. Eels really showed their potential with the win against Souths, playing a very strategic game. Even though tigers lost, they did do in golden time having dominated about 70 mins of the game. Their lack of calibre and key injuries to Woods couldn't seal the win last week. We see all the Tiger's first team players returning this week. This match really feels like a 50-50 to me. I dont see home ground advantage affecting the outcome much as both teams are unpredictable. This will be a high scoring affair. Id toss a coin to decide who wins.

Storm vs Warriors - the warriors are poor away from home and just have too much inconsistency and structure. The loss of Tomkins evidently disrupted their flow in attack and the replacements are just not of the same calibre. On record Storm have had a poor start to the season but they were winning in all games and some losses were due to poor reffing and JT. I can't see an upset here, storm comfortably at home.

Storm ATS

Panthers vs Cowboys -At home Panthers are VERY good, Cowboys hate travelling outside Queensland. Cowboys have regained some poor thanks to their miracle win but i don't feel they have the mentality and desire to win against an always consistent/determined Panthers team. Panthers in a close one.

Panthers 1-12.

Hi lordkai35,
no picks for todays first play carlton vs.richmond ? THANKS !

[twinky99]

Very informative keep it coming!

[lordkai35]

NRL RD 5 Bulldogs vs Souths

1x Souths -0.5 1st Half 1.95 sportsbet.

Might be making a live bet as well, keep eye out for that.

[lelicek]

NRL RD 5 Bulldogs vs Souths

1x Souths -0.5 1st Half 1.95 sportsbet.

Might be making a live bet as well, keep eye out for that.

thanks for sharing so soon.
no fantasy picks on it. OK.
good luck !

[lordkai35]

No markets on player statistics for tonights game either, hope they bring them back tomorrow. As you can see, picking winners is highly influenced by luck when this type of reffing is involved.

[lelicek]

No markets on player statistics for tonights game either, hope they bring them back tomorrow. As you can see, picking winners is highly influenced by luck when this type of reffing is involved.

OK, i understand.
Thanks and good choose tomorrow !

[lordkai35]

NRL RD 5 Manly vs Raiders

1x Jamie Buhrer UNDER 34.5 TACKLES 1.72 luxbet

1x Shaun Fensom UNDER 67.5 SUPERCOACH points 1.87 luxbet

1x Shaun Fensom OVER 58.5 SUPERCOACH points 1.85 sportsbet

[lelicek]

NRL RD 5 Manly vs Raiders

1x Jamie Buhrer UNDER 34.5 TACKLES 1.72 luxbet

1x Shaun Fensom UNDER 67.5 SUPERCOACH points 1.87 luxbet

1x Shaun Fensom OVER 58.5 SUPERCOACH points 1.85 sportsbet

thanks for the picks.
also you use 2 bookies...and again bet on players. Good luck !

[lelicek]

NRL RD 5 Manly vs Raiders

1x Jamie Buhrer UNDER 34.5 TACKLES 1.72 luxbet

1x Shaun Fensom UNDER 67.5 SUPERCOACH points 1.87 luxbet

1x Shaun Fensom OVER 58.5 SUPERCOACH points 1.85 sportsbet

i forget..interesting...fenson on one bookie under and on other over...

[lordkai35]

2x Man Utd/Wolfsburg Multi 1.90

[lordkai35]

2x Athletico Madrid/Chelsea/Juventus multi 2.60

[lelicek]

Supercoach and Fantasy are two separate competitions.

Nice results Lordkai, I had been doing well with these bets the first few rounds but can't bet at Sportsbet sadly. I had noticed Centrebet were doing player props but did not do them at all last round. Brings down the sites I know of to Sportsbet and Luxbet. One exceptional bet I had earlier on was a middle of Simon Mannering having 31-47 tackles.

hi, can someone of you reveal me where in stats i can find supercoach points ?

https://matchcentre.nrl.com/match/2015/111/20151110530/

tackless is clear, but supercoach ?
thanks in advance !

[lelicek]

2x Man Utd/Wolfsburg Multi 1.90

whow, i totally forgot, in your topic can be soccer too.
this pick hits, congrats !

[aussieH]

Good work

[lelicek]

2x Athletico Madrid/Chelsea/Juventus multi 2.60

you are almost unbeatable ! again soccer pick won ! congrats and thanks !

[lordkai35]

Hi could anyone teach me how i can submit this same thread into the soccer subsection? That would be awesome help. Thank you.

Thanks again sbr for the migration !

[lordkai35]

NRL RD 5 Roosters vs Sharks

2x Aidan Guerra OVER 37.5 TACKLES 1.68 luxbet

A lot of focus on sharks causing the upset, but i still think roosters should be too strong especially considering fine weather and sunday daytime game. Might make a live bet, so keep an eye out.

[lordkai35]

NRL RD 5 Storm vs Warriors

1x Ryan Hoffman UNDER 67.5 SUPERCOACH points 1.85 sportsbet

[lordkai35]

late post, just keeping this one for record

NRL RD 5 Panthers vs Cowboys

3x Elijah taylor OVER 45.5 TACKLES 1.88 crownbet (3units are bonus bets)
1x Jeremy Latimore OVER 106.5 METRES 1.88 crownbet

[lordkai35]

NRL RD 5 Bulldogs vs Souths

1x Souths -0.5 1st Half 1.95 sportsbet. LOSE

NRL RD 5 Manly vs Raiders

1x Jamie Buhrer UNDER 34.5 TACKLES 1.72 luxbet WINNER

1x Shaun Fensom UNDER 67.5 SUPERCOACH points 1.87 luxbet LOSE

1x Shaun Fensom OVER 58.5 SUPERCOACH points 1.85 sportsbet WINNER

2x Man Utd/Wolfsburg Multi 1.90 WINNER lose of 0.5 units for hedging

2x Athletico Madrid/Chelsea/Juventus multi 2.60 WINNER

NRL RD 5 Roosters vs Sharks

2x Aidan Guerra OVER 37.5 TACKLES 1.68 luxbet LOSE

NRL RD 5 Storm vs Warriors

1x Ryan Hoffman UNDER 67.5 SUPERCOACH points 1.85 sportsbet WINNER

NRL RD 5 Panthers vs Cowboys

3x Elijah taylor OVER 45.5 TACKLES 1.88 crownbet (3units are bonus bets) WINNER
1x Jeremy Latimore OVER 106.5 METRES 1.88 crownbet LOSE

6-4 +3.5 units

[lordkai35]

Record

25-10-1

+13.65 units

[lordkai35]

NRL Rd 6 Preview (Early Leans)

Broncos vs Roosters
Broncos are top 3 teams on form currently whereas the roosters came of a huge upset at home on a big day against an outside 8 opponent. I expect the Roosters to bounce back as once again title challengers don't lose back to back games. Jake friend is also likely a late inclusion which consolidates their spine considerably and adds the structure, flow and creativity that they have really lacked. The broncos are in form but their backline and bench just doesn't have too much class and outmatched in by every opposing rooster player. Broncos will need to rely on the forwards making linebreaks and offloads but i can't really see their attack putting more than 3 tries against this roosters defence.

Roosters in a close one 1-12 or ATS

Sharks vs Knights
sharks come off a huge upset with confidence playing at home. Knights with low morale after being kept to nil. Most are tipping the sharks but if knights show their early form, they will dominate. Knights defence is very solid and their attack isn't spectacular so i expect this to be a low scoring affair.

Either side under 6.5 or total points under 36.5

Eels vs Titans
Eels at home completely different team, play with confidence. Titans have some dramas with player contracts and injuries. Eels 13+

Warriors vs Tigers
Warriors are so unpredictable but they havn't impressed me so far. Manu vatuvei's 200th game so i expect them to lift their game for him. Hurrell had a shocker last weekend so i expect him to bounce back. The tigers have been playing extremely well and i would rate them in top 4 teams on form. Even though warriors are at home they don't have the flow and structure in their spine that the tigers do. id tip tigers but since its Manu's 200th, warriors might just have enough to get the win.

warriors 1-12

Panthers vs Sea Eagles
No soward has been hurting penrith in attack. There are also key injuries with Kite and Manu losing a lot of experience. However, Manly can only be described as terrible. Last week, they were asleep and didn't look even interested. Theres definitely so much drama that its showing on the field. Panthers should be strong enough at home.

Panthers ATS

Raiders vs Storm
Storm are the dark horse, playing very well in all their games. However Slater is injured for this game. Raiders were great last match but it was against a Manly side that didn't want to play. The storm usually give Canberra a thrashing at home. I think raiders will come back to reality.

Storm ATS

Bulldogs vs Dragons
I remember a game last year where origin reps were out and significant injuries left a bulldogs side with 3 debutants, tony williams at hb and jackson at 5/8. People laughed at that team and they managed to upset a full strength roosters side that went on to win the minor premiership. Similar situation. Hasler doesn't let dramas, media or external factors affect his game plan. Everyone is going the dragons and they are indeed playing extremely well with incredible defence. Dragons should win this but i think itll be much closer than on paper.

Rabbitohs vs Cowboys
Rabbitohs lose reynolds, Cowboys on great form but their away performances especially in NSW are pretty awful. Last week they thrashed an underperforming panthers side which will give them confidence. Once again, most are tipping cowboys, but you have to consider the replacements for reynolds in sutton and inglis who are both game winners. Souths have a winning mentality and anything can happen on monday night. Iam going with the souths to win.

[lelicek]

NRL Rd 6 Preview (Early Leans)

Broncos vs Roosters
Broncos are top 3 teams on form currently whereas the roosters came of a huge upset at home on a big day against an outside 8 opponent. I expect the Roosters to bounce back as once again title challengers don't lose back to back games. Jake friend is also likely a late inclusion which consolidates their spine considerably and adds the structure, flow and creativity that they have really lacked. The broncos are in form but their backline and bench just doesn't have too much class and outmatched in by every opposing rooster player. Broncos will need to rely on the forwards making linebreaks and offloads but i can't really see their attack putting more than 3 tries against this roosters defence.

Roosters in a close one 1-12 or ATS

Sharks vs Knights
sharks come off a huge upset with confidence playing at home. Knights with low morale after being kept to nil. Most are tipping the sharks but if knights show their early form, they will dominate. Knights defence is very solid and their attack isn't spectacular so i expect this to be a low scoring affair.

Either side under 6.5 or total points under 36.5

Eels vs Titans
Eels at home completely different team, play with confidence. Titans have some dramas with player contracts and injuries. Eels 13+

Warriors vs Tigers
Warriors are so unpredictable but they havn't impressed me so far. Manu vatuvei's 200th game so i expect them to lift their game for him. Hurrell had a shocker last weekend so i expect him to bounce back. The tigers have been playing extremely well and i would rate them in top 4 teams on form. Even though warriors are at home they don't have the flow and structure in their spine that the tigers do. id tip tigers but since its Manu's 200th, warriors might just have enough to get the win.

warriors 1-12

Panthers vs Sea Eagles
No soward has been hurting penrith in attack. There are also key injuries with Kite and Manu losing a lot of experience. However, Manly can only be described as terrible. Last week, they were asleep and didn't look even interested. Theres definitely so much drama that its showing on the field. Panthers should be strong enough at home.

Panthers ATS

Raiders vs Storm
Storm are the dark horse, playing very well in all their games. However Slater is injured for this game. Raiders were great last match but it was against a Manly side that didn't want to play. The storm usually give Canberra a thrashing at home. I think raiders will come back to reality.

Storm ATS

Bulldogs vs Dragons
I remember a game last year where origin reps were out and significant injuries left a bulldogs side with 3 debutants, tony williams at hb and jackson at 5/8. People laughed at that team and they managed to upset a full strength roosters side that went on to win the minor premiership. Similar situation. Hasler doesn't let dramas, media or external factors affect his game plan. Everyone is going the dragons and they are indeed playing extremely well with incredible defence. Dragons should win this but i think itll be much closer than on paper.

Rabbitohs vs Cowboys
Rabbitohs lose reynolds, Cowboys on great form but their away performances especially in NSW are pretty awful. Last week they thrashed an underperforming panthers side which will give them confidence. Once again, most are tipping cowboys, but you have to consider the replacements for reynolds in sutton and inglis who are both game winners. Souths have a winning mentality and anything can happen on monday night. Iam going with the souths to win.

thanks !
looking forward when from leans will be picks.
thanks for your hard work and good luck !

[lordkai35]

Round special

0.5 x Paramatta eels most points of the round 6.50 sportsbet

NRL RD 6 Sharks vs Knights

1x Cronulla most metres gained 1.85 crownbet

1x UNDER 37.5 total match points 1.90 sportsbet