justkyle88 NRL 2014 #foooootyyyyy

[justkyle88]

Warning - I'm not a proven winner or a pro tipper, follow at your own risk. This is more to track my results and learn along the way from hopefully some more experienced tipsters in this forum.

This will be my thread for my NRL tips for the 2014 season including regular season, State of Origin, finals etc.

I'm fairly new to sports betting but I do enjoy my NRL being an Australian and will have a crack at winning some money and having fun along the way.

In the past I have bet on soccer with not much success.

GL, can't wait for the season to kick off this Thursday.

[justkyle88]

Bet 1: Warriors v Eels - Warriors WIN @ $1.66 1U
Even though the pre-season isn't much to go by but warriors have been super strong especially in the nines and Eels have gone through a lot of changes and will take some time to get it right.
Hopefully we can start off with a winner.

[justkyle88]

Bet 2: Panthers vs Knights - Panthers -2.5handicap @ $1.91 1U
Really think Knights will struggle this year, they have some quality backs but with their play maker out, they will find it hard against panthers who are looking promising this year.

[justkyle88]

Bet for tonights cracking opener, souths v rooster.

2U on Roosters -2.5handicap @1.85

I actually think roosters will win by 4-8 points.

[micase]

Bet for tonights cracking opener, souths v rooster.

2U on Roosters -2.5handicap @1.85

I actually think roosters will win by 4-8 points.

I too think the same but a lot of value on the Roosters got sucked out of the market after the Charity Shield/ World Club Challenge. Hard to believe that they were even money picks 2 weeks ago and now the Roosters have been hammered in. I reckon the match will be similar to round 26 last year, a close but lower scoring game where the Roosters will get up by a try or two.

[justkyle88]

Would be a good idea to jump on the prices after the Monday match so the prices don't drop so much.

[justkyle88]

Going for Bulldogs tomorrow night vs broncos. 3U @ $1.60

Forget the fact barba will be playing v his old club, broncos have lost a big chunk of their play makers this season and are going to struggle this year unless they develop quickly.

[justkyle88]

Bulldogs WIN @ $1.60 3U
Bulldogs -4.0 @ 1.93 1U

The more I look at the line ups even though bulldogs have kasiano, Inu and eastwood out, Broncos backline isn't that great and their halves arent impressive like the bulldogs.

Will more than likely only be making 1 play tomorrow between cowboys v raiders.

[justkyle88]

Not a good start so far haha

Well I'm going panthers -2.0 because they have had some epic signing and usually when Knights are without their playmaker, they fall apart.
Panthers -2.0 @2.00 3U

[justkyle88]

There we go, first win of the season, I'm going manly on the next one with cronk out of the storm.

Manly -6.0 handicap @$1.90 2U

[justkyle88]

Seems like trials and the Nines is becoming a good indication of how well these teams will start off with the year, so I'm going the tigers.

Dragons have dugan out which is their biggest weapon in attack and being smashed by souths pre season.

On the other hand, Tigers done well pre-season and will be full of confident with a youthful side with farah, anasta and brooks to guide them along.

Tigers WIN @$2.00 3U

Again with pre-season and trials being an indication with magic johnson I'm taking warriors, I don't think parra will get wooden spoon this year(big call I know haha), but warriors will be to good.

Warriors -4.0handicap @1.93 3U

[justkyle88]

I forgot how hard it is to pick at the start of the season.

[justkyle88]

I'll update now so I don't lose track. I've made 9 bets so far.

2wins - 7loses -11.09U

Very nu-profitable round 1 so far.

Not sure wether I should take a week off and just focus on the games or go by the indication of how the first round went and adjust my choices from there...

[justkyle88]

Monday night footy, wooooo

Going for Titans WIN 4U and over 40points 3U

Sharks are without Carney and Beau Ryan and with all the ASADA and coaching bullshit, not sure if sharks will be able to put it together.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

7 units on this game?

You are going to blow your bankroll very soon.

Over is a huge call - this fixture is low-scoring and both teams struggle to score in the early rounds of the season.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

By the way, the ASADA crap was around last year too and try still beat the Titans in round 1

[justkyle88]

This is why I'm learning unit bet sizings
teams with bad defence usually are high scoring games. Both teams aren't good and ill-disciplined so that's why I took the over.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Aren't good?
Surely you have mistaken these teams?
The Sharks are a solid defensive team and made the 8 last season.
The titans leak a few points but they are a fringe 8 team and their top 17 would match it with most sides.

Anyhow, 20 minutes to go and 16 points to play with - lets see which way it falls.

[justkyle88]

I don't think titans are top 8 contenders this year. And like I said, cronulla are nobody's without carney.
Game has slower dramatically now. Won't hit 40. Only way I can see it is if Titans pile on 3 converted tries.

[justkyle88]

12-18, got the ML but missed the over. Up 2U I think.
will check when I get home.

[justkyle88]

Monday night footy, wooooo

Going for Titans WIN 4U and over 40points 3U

Sharks are without Carney and Beau Ryan and with all the ASADA and coaching bullshit, not sure if sharks will be able to put it together.

Titans WIN 4U win +4U

over 40points 3U loss -3U

YTD: 3wins - 8loses -10.09U

[justkyle88]

This isn't a bias bet!!

knights are in all kinds of trouble, Injurys in all areas of their squad!!
im taking raiders at $2.50 with 5Us.

[micase]

Not sure I like that one to be honest mate, unless I'm missing something. Raiders went 2-10 away from home last season and while the Knights were the walking wounded last week, I believe they will all recover well and the only change from last week will be Mamo or Minto taking over from Darius Boyd at the back with Gidley shifting up into starting hooker.

I was surprised with the Raiders performance last week, they did a lot better than I expected but I think they still have some question marks in the halves. Campo is solid without being spectacular and Wighton has only just started as a playmaker in top flight football.

[justkyle88]

Not sure I like that one to be honest mate, unless I'm missing something. Raiders went 2-10 away from home last season and while the Knights were the walking wounded last week, I believe they will all recover well and the only change from last week will be Mamo or Minto taking over from Darius Boyd at the back with Gidley shifting up into starting hooker.

I was surprised with the Raiders performance last week, they did a lot better than I expected but I think they still have some question marks in the halves. Campo is solid without being spectacular and Wighton has only just started as a playmaker in top flight football.

Your missing a fair bit, there is some huge changes for the knights this week.
Gidley and roberts have both been named to play after their head clash last week but they will need to pass tests to prove they are OK.
If they are fine, gidley is going to fullback to replace Boyd who is out due to hangstring problems and waddell (never heard of him) will slot into hooker).

Raiders arent without injurys as well with shillington and Lahrs out, but raiders still have a solid forward pack in papalii, tilse, butriss and fensom.
Your not giving wighton enough credit, sure campese is the backbone for the raiders.
i just hope raiders play the full 80mins, thats their biggest problem. They have some real class as they showed in the first 40mins last week vs the cowboys. But thurston is just to experienced.

I just see the continuing injury list suffered from last week in the knights is going to wear them down.

[justkyle88]

Alright Friday Night footy.
Here we go:

Brisbane ML 3U: I don't think the bookies are giving broncos enough credit in this game.
Souths ML 4U: Souths have gone to a new level, inglis will cause havoc and with stewart out of fullback for manly. I see souths being to good.
^^^Under 38.5 2U: There should be a couple of tries but I think it will be one sided and these guys are awesome at defence.

[sando]

Good luck this season mate. Myself and Rohan are also Raiders fans.

[justkyle88]

Good luck this season mate. Myself and Rohan are also Raiders fans.

Haha we are a rare breed.

[sando]

Haha we are a rare breed.

10 years of pain and missed opportunities, and having our best juniors poached. Honestly don't know why I bother...

[Tim Gerry Mander]

You're a Raiders fan and you've never heard of Travis Waddell?

[justkyle88]

10 years of pain and missed opportunities, and having our best juniors poached. Honestly don't know why I bother...

Our development program seems to be second to none. They need to bring in some fee if they leave during a certain number of years or something so we don't keep losing them

[justkyle88]

You're a Raiders fan and you've never heard of Travis Waddell?

nope

[justkyle88]

Round 2 ACCA

3-fold: Storm, Roosters, Bulldogs 3U
ADD
6-fold: Raiders, Rabbits, Titans 2U
ADD
8-fold: Broncos, Warriors 1U

[justkyle88]

Alright Friday Night footy.
Here we go:

Brisbane ML 3U WIN +3.3U: I don't think the bookies are giving broncos enough credit in this game.
Souths ML 4U LOSS -4U: Souths have gone to a new level, inglis will cause havoc and with stewart out of fullback for manly. I see souths being to good.
^^^Under 38.5 2U WIN +1.82U: There should be a couple of tries but I think it will be one sided and these guys are awesome at defence.

YTD: 5wins - 9loses -8.97U

Made about 1U there. Tonights games were tough too. Was very confident on the unders though and shocked souths lost.

[justkyle88]

Saturday games

Warriors v ST George

NZ ML 2U
NZ -8.5 0.5U
NZ Over 3.5trys 1U

Storm v Panthers

Storm ML 5U - I'm going to put the one bet on for this one. I want to see how cronk comes back and I really think panthers are going to have an exciting year. Good game to watch for future reference.

Roosters v eels - I'm going for an absolute thrashing as you can see in my bets, eels have an in-experienced hooker and even though SBW is out, I'm not worried.

Roosters ML 5U
Roosters -10.5 2U
Roosters HT/FT 1U
Roosters by 13+ 3U

[justkyle88]

Really pissed off this news is only being released now

Team News: David Fusitua will make his #NRL debut for the NZ Warriors against the Dragons replacing Manu Vatuvei.