Saturday Match Play
A little insight:
9:20 am est Mcllroy (16) vs Ogilvy (8) -
Mcllroy has played 50 holes in the first 3 matches. Has been under par 13 times or 26% and over par 6 times or 12%.
Ogilvy has played 55 holes in the first 3 matches. He has been under par 12 times or 22% and over par 4 times or 7%.
I give the edge to Ogilvy mainly based on experience. Similar performance numbers thru the first 3 matches BUT he has won this tourney before and should outlast the much more inexperienced Mcllroy. However, I am going to pass on this based on the fact that Mcllroy had 5 birdies and 0 bogeys in his most recent match vs clark
9:32 am est Els (13) vs Cink (21) -
Els has played 49 holes in the first 3 matches. Has been under par 17 times or 35% and over par only 4 times or 8%.
Cink has played 60 holes in the first 3 matches. He has been under par 14 times or 23% and over par 7 times or 12%.
I give the clear edge to Els. He is playing as well as anyone and to me is the favorite to win this tourney. 35% under par is solid with only 4 bogeys. He has been steady all week. On the other hand Cink has gone extra holes twice with one match going 23 holes. He got off to a great start vs Mickelson in his 3rd match but just barely held on to win thanks to Mickelson's double on 17. Expect Cink to falter ...this one might only go 15 holes or so. Play Els -140 (5 units)
9:44 am est O'Hair (47) vs Casey (23) -
O'Hair has played 52 holes in the first 3 matches. Has been under par 15 times or 29% and over par 10 times or 19%.
Casey has played 48 holes in the first 3 matches. He has been under par 13 times or 27% and over par 5 times or 10%.
Casey should dominate this one... O'Hair has been way to inconsistent to last. He is still alive thanks to Boo Weekly's smooth 77 in round 2 (and that's giving him a par on 18). If Boo would have played just ok he would have taken O'Hair out who shot +1 on his ball. O'Hair did bounce back vs Poulter but still should be no match vs Casey who is known to be a match play specialist. Match 1 was a little rough for Casey, but in match 2 Casey had 0 holes over par and in match 3 he dominated by firing 5 birdies and 1 eagle with only 1 bogey. Play Casey -160 (5 units)
9:56 am est Fisher (35) vs Leonard (27)
Fisher has played 46 holes in the first 3 matches. Has been under par 16 times or 35% and over par 5 times or 11%.
Leonard has played 54 holes in the first 3 matches. He has been under par 13 times or 24% and over par 5 times or 9%.
I am leaning toward Fisher mainly due to his most recent lights out round vs Furyk. Fisher had 7 birds to follow his 5 birds with 0 bogeys in his second round match vs Perez. He is as hot as anyone while Leonard has just squeezed by in all 3 of his matches. 19 holes vs Wilson and a 1up win vs Love (thanks to Love's bogey on 18). Play Fisher -115 (2 units)
GL
9:20 am est Mcllroy (16) vs Ogilvy (8) -
Mcllroy has played 50 holes in the first 3 matches. Has been under par 13 times or 26% and over par 6 times or 12%.
Ogilvy has played 55 holes in the first 3 matches. He has been under par 12 times or 22% and over par 4 times or 7%.
I give the edge to Ogilvy mainly based on experience. Similar performance numbers thru the first 3 matches BUT he has won this tourney before and should outlast the much more inexperienced Mcllroy. However, I am going to pass on this based on the fact that Mcllroy had 5 birdies and 0 bogeys in his most recent match vs clark
9:32 am est Els (13) vs Cink (21) -
Els has played 49 holes in the first 3 matches. Has been under par 17 times or 35% and over par only 4 times or 8%.
Cink has played 60 holes in the first 3 matches. He has been under par 14 times or 23% and over par 7 times or 12%.
I give the clear edge to Els. He is playing as well as anyone and to me is the favorite to win this tourney. 35% under par is solid with only 4 bogeys. He has been steady all week. On the other hand Cink has gone extra holes twice with one match going 23 holes. He got off to a great start vs Mickelson in his 3rd match but just barely held on to win thanks to Mickelson's double on 17. Expect Cink to falter ...this one might only go 15 holes or so. Play Els -140 (5 units)
9:44 am est O'Hair (47) vs Casey (23) -
O'Hair has played 52 holes in the first 3 matches. Has been under par 15 times or 29% and over par 10 times or 19%.
Casey has played 48 holes in the first 3 matches. He has been under par 13 times or 27% and over par 5 times or 10%.
Casey should dominate this one... O'Hair has been way to inconsistent to last. He is still alive thanks to Boo Weekly's smooth 77 in round 2 (and that's giving him a par on 18). If Boo would have played just ok he would have taken O'Hair out who shot +1 on his ball. O'Hair did bounce back vs Poulter but still should be no match vs Casey who is known to be a match play specialist. Match 1 was a little rough for Casey, but in match 2 Casey had 0 holes over par and in match 3 he dominated by firing 5 birdies and 1 eagle with only 1 bogey. Play Casey -160 (5 units)
9:56 am est Fisher (35) vs Leonard (27)
Fisher has played 46 holes in the first 3 matches. Has been under par 16 times or 35% and over par 5 times or 11%.
Leonard has played 54 holes in the first 3 matches. He has been under par 13 times or 24% and over par 5 times or 9%.
I am leaning toward Fisher mainly due to his most recent lights out round vs Furyk. Fisher had 7 birds to follow his 5 birds with 0 bogeys in his second round match vs Perez. He is as hot as anyone while Leonard has just squeezed by in all 3 of his matches. 19 holes vs Wilson and a 1up win vs Love (thanks to Love's bogey on 18). Play Fisher -115 (2 units)
GL
