MiddleMan's Magical Middles

**hawley** · 08-31-13, 01:29 AM

Should post the books you are playing them all at.

**MiddleMan** · 08-31-13, 01:58 AM

NRL Middle
$300 on Cameron Smith under 43.5 tackles @ $2.15 w Luxbet ($645 return)
$287.35 on Cameron Smith over 42.5 tackles @ $1.87 w Centrebet ($537.34 return)

If Smith gets fewer than 42.5 tackles - $57.65 profit
If Smith gets more than 43.5 tackles - $50.01 loss
If Smith gets exactly 43 tackles - $594.99 profit

* I wanted to put $340 on Smith with Centrebet, but there was a limit.

**Bbr** · 08-31-13, 02:52 AM

Great work here. Smart money.

**MiddleMan** · 08-31-13, 08:18 PM

Both Selwood and Wingard returned with one goal each. Cameron Smith had 45 tackles, so I'm basically breaking even ($9 up).

Hopefully I'll find some good plays today.

**MiddleMan** · 08-31-13, 08:47 PM

A couple of NRL middles for those interested and not limited.

Holden Cup Gold Coast v Sydney
Gold Coast +30.5 @ $1.90 w Sportsbet
Sydney -26.5 @ $1.90 w Bet365

NSW Cup Wyong v Newcastle
Wyong Roos +22.5 @ $1.90 w Sportsbet
Newcastle -18.5 @ $1.90 w Bet365

**MiddleMan** · 08-31-13, 10:58 PM

NRL Middle
Matthew Bowden under 103.5 metres gained w Centrebet @ $1.87
Matthew Bowden over 73.5 metres gained w Sportsbet @ $1.88

**MiddleMan** · 08-31-13, 11:02 PM

NRL Middle
Paul Gallen under 34.5 tackles @ $1.95 w Luxbet
Paul Gallen over 30.5 tackles @ $1.87 w Centrebet

**aussieH** · 09-01-13, 12:28 AM

Nice work middleman. What kind of % do you need to hit to make some dollars

**Tim Gerry Mander** · 09-01-13, 12:52 AM

Nice middle on Bowen if NRL stats is correct, he finished on 103m

**rohan22no** · 09-01-13, 01:43 AM

I like this

**MiddleMan** · 09-01-13, 06:52 AM

Originally posted by aussieH

Nice work middleman. What kind of % do you need to hit to make some dollars

Thanks.

There's not a high percentage needed at all. In the future I will provide more detailed analysis, but I'll use my Gallen bet posted earlier as an example.

Paul Gallen under 34.5 tackles @ $1.95 w Luxbet
Paul Gallen over 30.5 tackles @ $1.87 w Centrebet

Suggested stakes
9.5 UNITS with Luxbet @ $1.95
10 UNITS with Centrebet @ $1.87

Summary
If Gallen records more than 34.5 tackles, a loss of 0.8 units is the result. If Gallen records fewer than 30.5 tackles, a loss of 0.975 units is the result. An overall average loss of 0.8875 and a potential profit of 17.725 units provides me with effective odds of $19.97. This means that Gallen would have to record 31, 32, 33 or 34 tackles once in every 19.97 occasions for me to break even, or just over 5% of the time. In fourteen games this season, Gallen has hit this middle on two occasions (14.2% of the time), which means that in time, for every 1 unit I invest on this market, my expected return is 2.7 units.

**MiddleMan** · 09-02-13, 08:11 PM

Sportsbet with a money back offer if your selection loses by 18 points or less (max $100).Bookmaker with a money back offer if your selection loses by 20 points or less (max $50).

The smart thing to do here is to back the favourite with Sportsbet, and the underdog with Bookmaker (due to the larger max bet).
I.E.
$100 on Hawthorn @ $1.50 w Sportsbet
$50 on Sydney @ $2.60 w Bookmaker
* If Hawthorn wins by 21+ points, we break even.
* If Hawthorn wins by 1-20 points, we make $50.
* If Sydney wins by 19+ points, we lose $20.
* If Sydney wins by 1-18 points, we make $80.

Betstar is also offering $2 favourites across all four games, with a maximum bet of $50 allowed. They also offer $2 powerlines from 3pm on Friday.

Betstar Middles with $2 favourites and $2 powerlines
$50 on Hawthorn @ $2
$50 on Sydney +11.5 @ $2

$50 on Geelong @ $2
$50 on Freo +19.5 @ $2

$50 on Collingwood @ $2
$50 on Port +25.5 @ $2

$50 on Richmond @ $2
$50 on Carlton +14.5 @ $2

With these four markets, the worst you can do is break even. There is a chance you can hit a middle and win $100 per successful middle.

Or you can simply suggest arbing.

$50 on Hawthorn @ $2
$38 on Sydney @ $2.61 w Betezy
Guaranteed profit of $12

$50 on Geelong @ $2
$28.90 on Fremantle @ $3.46 w Betezy
Guaranteed profit of $21

$50 on Collingwood @ $2
$25 on Port @ $4 w Bet365
Guaranteed profit of $25

$50 on Richmond @ $2
$37 on Carlton @ $2.70 w Bet365
Guaranteed profit of $13

So overall you are guaranteed to profit $72, but if you hit 1/4 middles, you are already $29 better off. I'll leave it up to you guys to decide which path you'd rather take. I reckon using the powerlines as a middling option is better, though.

**micase** · 09-03-13, 03:07 AM

Quick question mate, where are you seeing these 2 dollar favorites odds at betstar. All I see is the powerlines coming into effect at 3pm on Friday.

Love the name by the way, makes you sound like a super hero dispensing knowledge about betting middles to all that come before you.

**MiddleMan** · 09-03-13, 07:57 AM

Originally posted by micase

Quick question mate, where are you seeing these 2 dollar favorites odds at betstar. All I see is the powerlines coming into effect at 3pm on Friday.

Love the name by the way, makes you sound like a super hero dispensing knowledge about betting middles to all that come before you.

Cheers mate. The $2 favourites will be in effect on Friday, I believe. I can't remember where I read it, but I do remember reading it.

**OZnBa Fan** · 09-03-13, 08:13 AM

In regards to the $2 favs I think there only available 2 hours before the games I think

**MiddleMan** · 09-06-13, 03:45 AM

Luxbet: Mitchell over 94.5 DT @ $2.15 x $300
Bet365: Mitchell under 97.5 @ $1.87 x $345

If Mitchell scores anything other than a total between 95-97, it's a break even (actually up 15 cents if he goes under 94.5). If he scores between 95-97, the middle is hit and a $645 profit is the result.

Luxbet: Hodge over 89.5 DT @ $1.87 x $100
Bet365: Hodge under 96.5 DT @ $1.87 x $100

If Hodge scores anything other than a total between 90-96, it's a $13 loss. If he scores between 90-96, the middle is successful and a $174 profit is the result. Therefore, effective odds of $13.48 means to make a profit, this middle must be hit once in every 13.47 games or better (or 7.41% of the time). Hodge has hit this 19 times in his 225 game career, which is only 8.4% of the time, but this is a slight +EV play based on those numbers.

**aussieH** · 09-06-13, 04:03 AM

Good luck. I imagine you have to very patient and controlled to follow this strategy

**micase** · 09-07-13, 02:05 AM

Nice hit on the Fremantle game, I believe that is 115 in the black. Keep em coming!

**thecattery12** · 09-07-13, 06:41 AM

Don't think Betstar even had $2 favs this week...

**micase** · 09-07-13, 09:14 AM

Originally posted by thecattery12

Don't think Betstar even had $2 favs this week...

They didn't, just the $2 powerlines. If you backed all the finals games with 100 on favourites at sportsbet and 50 on underdogs at bookmaker, you'd be up $150 right now.

**DHB** · 09-07-13, 10:13 PM

interesting middleman.
props to for finding this stuff, and ur math aswell.

**MiddleMan** · 09-08-13, 12:06 AM

I am limited with Sportsbet and was restricted with Luxbet, so I didn't have as much on these as I wanted to.

TAB has Jeremy Smith from Newcastle to get 30+ tackles today @ $2.50.

Luxbet and Sportsbet both had his line at 34.5, with unders paying $1.87 and $1.88 respectively.

I was only allowed on for $11 with Sportsbet.
Luxbet gave me $50 at $1.87 and then $50 at $1.66.
So overall I have only $111 on to return $197 if Smith has under 34.5 tackles.

Given the amazing value with TAB, I have invested a lot heavier than I normally would otherwise.

I therefore have $170 on Smith to have 30+ tackles @ $2.50.

If Smith has fewer than 30 tackles, I lose $84.
If Smith has more than 34 tackles, I win $144.
If Smith has 31, 32, 33 or 34 tackles, I win $341.

**micase** · 09-08-13, 12:38 AM

Are there any other sports that the bookmakers offer middling opportunities on stats markets regularly? The footy seasons are winding down and I'm unsure if there are many soccer/basketball prop markets

**micase** · 09-08-13, 02:57 AM

Well that mullet sporting carnt from Richmond just cost us another nice score with Carlton 1-18.

**MiddleMan** · 09-08-13, 06:09 PM

Originally posted by micase

Are there any other sports that the bookmakers offer middling opportunities on stats markets regularly? The footy seasons are winding down and I'm unsure if there are many soccer/basketball prop markets

Yeah, plenty of NBA player prop middling opportunities available.

Last season, Pinnacle, Luxbet, TAB, Centrebet, Bet365 and Sportsbet all offered them.

Luxbet and Sportsbet are no good, though, because their $12-per-hour traders limit you very quickly.

**Gee** · 09-09-13, 01:43 AM

I am pretty sure Pinny only offered NBA player props during the playoffs didn't they? There were plenty of middles there between Pinny and 5dimes.

Good luck getting much down at sportsbet, centrebet and bet365. They all cut limits on props very, very, very quickly.

You will also find plenty of middles on NFL player props . I saw last night that sportsbet basically offered them on every game, which was nice. Lots of middles with 5dimes/bet365 everywhere if you wanted them.

**aussieH** · 09-11-13, 07:21 AM

Most sixes in a one day game looks like a middle opportunity Tie $7. Eng 2.65. Aus 1.83. Middleman can you calculate.

**Gee** · 09-11-13, 08:25 AM

You have to be fvcking joking right?

Middling does not usually involve betting the same market at the same book.

**hawley** · 09-11-13, 06:24 PM

Originally posted by Gee

You have to be fvcking joking right?

Middling does not usually involve betting the same market at the same book.

**aussieH** · 09-12-13, 05:52 AM

Who said they were on the same tote?

**MiddleMan** · 09-12-13, 11:05 PM

It can't be a middle, Aussie. It's not even an arb. For every $195 you're spending, you're getting back $183, so it's 6.5% profit to the books.

**MiddleMan** · 09-12-13, 11:12 PM

$500 on Wingard to score two or more goals w Bet365 @ $2.50 = $1250 return
$500 on Wingard to score under 1.5 goals w Luxbet @ $2.25 = $1125 return
$1000 spent for a guaranteed profit of $250 or $125 (as long as Wingard starts).

This isn't an arb or a middle so much, but it's still OK value so I thought I'd post it here.

$100 on Selwood to score two or more goals w Bet365 @ $3.25 = $325 return
$110 on Selwood to score under 1.0 goals @ $2.15 = $236.50 return

If Selwood scores no goals = $26.50 profit
If Selwood scores one goal = $100 loss
If Selwood scores 2+ goals = $115 profit

Basically I'm getting odds of $1.70 that Selwood won't score exactly one goal. He has scored exactly one goal in 8/23 games this year, which means if I did this bet in every single game at odds of $1.70, I'd be up $250.

**MiddleMan** · 09-12-13, 11:16 PM

A few NRL and AFL promotions this weekend with Centrebet, Sportsbet and Bookmaker/Ladbrokes.

$50 Souths @ $1.83 w Bookmaker ($91.50 return) - refunded if lose and score 3+ tries
$55 Souths @ $1.87 w Centrebet ($102.85 return) - refunded if winning at HT and lose
$95 Storm @ $2.05 w Sportsbet ($194.75 return) - refunded if lose by 10 points or less

Souths win by more than ten points = $5.65 LOSS
Souths win by 1-10 points = $89.35 profit
Storm win and Souths aren't leading at HT and don't score 3+ tries = $5.25 loss
Storm win and Souths are leading at HT but don't score 3+ tries = $49.75 profit
Storm win and Souths aren't leading at HF but score 3+ tries = $44.75 profit
Storm win and Souths are leading at HT and score 3+ tries = $99.25 profit

$200 on Geelong @ $1.22 w Centrebet/Sportsbet ($244 return)
$50 on Port @ $4.50 w Ladbrokes ($225 return)

If Geelong wins by more than 20 points = $6 loss
If Port wins by more than 18 points and are leading at Half Time = $25 loss
If Geelong wins by 1-20 points = $44 profit
If Port wins by 1-18 points and are leading at half time = $75 profit
If Port wins by 1-18 points and are trailing at half time = $175 profit

**Crowing Capers** · 09-12-13, 11:30 PM

Cheers Middle Man
That chad wingard bet is a beauty... Getting on now